Should You Buy SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
89.200
1 Day change
0.28%
52 Week Range
187.010
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/26
SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term focus. The stock is currently facing macroeconomic headwinds, downgraded analyst ratings, and a lack of positive catalysts. While the company's financials show some growth, the technical indicators and sentiment suggest a neutral to bearish outlook. Given the investor's profile, it would be prudent to hold off on buying until clearer growth signals or positive catalysts emerge.
Technical Analysis
The technical indicators are bearish. The MACD is negatively expanding below 0 (-0.302), the RSI is neutral at 45.1, and the moving averages indicate a bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading below the pivot level of 92.395, with key support at 89.518 and resistance at 95.271.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Additionally, Northland upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $109 price target, citing stabilization in organic growth.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Analysts have broadly downgraded the stock, citing macroeconomic headwinds, weaker retail end markets, and delayed customer purchases. The gross margin dropped slightly (-0.02% YoY), and the stock lacks significant positive news or catalysts.
Financial Performance
In Q3 2025, SPS Commerce reported revenue of $189.9M (+16.02% YoY), net income of $25.57M (+8.99% YoY), and EPS of $0.67 (+8.06% YoY). However, gross margin slightly declined to 64.5% (-0.02% YoY).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Analyst sentiment is predominantly negative. Multiple firms, including Morgan Stanley, DA Davidson, Stifel, and Cantor Fitzgerald, downgraded the stock, with price targets significantly reduced. However, Northland upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $109 price target, and Needham maintained a Buy rating, suggesting some optimism in the long term.
Wall Street analysts forecast SPSC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SPSC is 99.13 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 110 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast SPSC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SPSC is 99.13 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 110 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 88.950
Low
80
Averages
99.13
High
110
Current: 88.950
Low
80
Averages
99.13
High
110
Morgan Stanley
Chris Quintero
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$140 -> $100
AI Analysis
2025-11-11
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Chris Quintero
Price Target
$140 -> $100
AI Analysis
2025-11-11
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Chris Quintero downgraded SPS Commerce to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $100, down from $140. The firm believes the company's near-term growth will be "constrained" as the macro environment is hurting its retail end market. SPS lacks positive catalysts to turn its growth around in the near-term, which will keep the stock range-bound, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
DA Davidson
Neutral
downgrade
$125 -> $80
2025-10-31
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$125 -> $80
2025-10-31
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on SPS Commerce to $80 from $125 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's Q3 revenue miss and 2025 guidance cut, along with below-consensus 2026 growth outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company added 450 new customers in Q3 but based on the firm's conversations with management, it now expects negative sequential growth in the count of total customers in Q4 given delayed purchases and stable churn levels, the firm added.
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