Should You Buy Sonos Inc (SONO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
14.350
1 Day change
0.07%
52 Week Range
19.820
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
SONO is not a good buy right now. Despite being deeply oversold (RSI ~16) and potentially due for a short bounce, the broader setup still leans bearish/unstable (price below key pivot, negative MACD, weak pattern-based forward probabilities, and recent market skepticism about growth). For an impatient buyer who doesn’t want to wait for confirmation, the risk of further near-term downside into/around the upcoming earnings (2026-02-03) outweighs the oversold bounce appeal.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: SONO is in a sharp downswing and currently trades below the pivot (15.117), which keeps the near-term trend biased lower. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.145) but contracting, which hints selling pressure may be easing; however it’s not a confirmed reversal. RSI(6) at ~15.9 signals extreme oversold conditions, which often precede reflex bounces—but oversold alone is not a buy signal without confirmation. Levels: Immediate support is S1=14.318 (price 14.23 is already below it), with next support S2=13.825. Resistance levels to reclaim are 15.117 (pivot) then R1=15.915. Practical read: odds favor additional volatility and potential continuation lower unless the stock quickly reclaims ~15.12 and holds it.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning vs flow: Open-interest put/call at 0.32 suggests overall positioning is more call-heavy (constructive/bullish longer-view positioning). However, today’s put/call volume at 1.2 shows more puts traded than calls, implying near-term caution/hedging or bearish short-term sentiment. Volatility: 30D IV ~47.2 vs HV ~40.5 indicates options are pricing elevated move risk. IV percentile ~34.8 (IV rank ~5.7) is not extreme, so options are not screaming panic, but they do reflect meaningful event/uncertainty risk (earnings upcoming). Net: mixed—structurally bullish OI, but near-term trading flow leans defensive.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Product catalyst: Launch of Amp Multi (first new product in over a year) could re-energize the higher-end/custom installer channel and supports the narrative of improving the portfolio.
Margins: Gross margin improved to 43.69% in 2025/Q4 (+8.30% YoY), showing pricing/supply chain actions can help profitability potential.
Earnings event (2026-02-03 after hours): A strong print or upbeat outlook could trigger an oversold rebound and short-covering move, especially given the depressed price level.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Price action/news reaction: Shares dropped sharply (~14.8%) around the product news amid concerns about future growth—this is a clear sentiment headwind.
Profitability deterioration: 2025/Q4 net income fell to -$37.858M (more loss YoY) and EPS fell to -0.31, signaling operating challenges despite revenue growth.
Near-term statistical bias: Pattern-based projection provided indicates downside skew (next week/month both around -6%).
Earnings risk: With earnings close, disappointment risk is elevated and can overwhelm an oversold setup.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew to $287.9M (+12.73% YoY), showing top-line recovery/strength. However, profitability worsened: net income declined to -$37.858M (down -28.69% YoY) and EPS to -0.31 (down -29.55% YoY). A key bright spot is gross margin rising to 43.69% (+8.30% YoY), suggesting better unit economics, but the company still needs operating leverage/expense control to translate revenue growth into earnings.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings/targets have improved but are not uniformly bullish. Morgan Stanley upgraded SONO to Equal Weight from Underweight (PT raised to $17 from $11) after Q4, citing pricing actions and supply chain improvements, but still noted shares are not 'overly cheap'—a neutral stance. Jefferies reiterated Buy and raised PT to $21 from $19, implying meaningful upside from current levels. Wall Street pros: improving execution on tariffs/pricing, margin improvement, and upside if the new strategy/products accelerate growth. Cons: skepticism on sustainable growth trajectory and the need for clearer acceleration; mixed conviction (one Buy vs one Neutral) suggests the bull case isn’t broadly decisive yet.
Wall Street analysts forecast SONO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SONO is 19.67 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast SONO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SONO is 19.67 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.340
Low
17
Averages
19.67
High
21
Current: 14.340
Low
17
Averages
19.67
High
21
Jefferies
Buy
maintain
$19 -> $21
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$19 -> $21
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
maintain
Buy
Reason
Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Sonos to $21 from $19 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes 2026 will be "another year of gradual AI monetization," but thinks more meaningful growth contribution and acceleration are needed to ease AI disintermediation fears, requiring more selectivity, the analyst tells investors in an outlook note on the software group. "While we remain confident that value will ultimately accrue to the software layer, investors may need to stay patient" with sector valuation back at historical average, the analyst added.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Underweight -> Equal Weight
upgrade
$11 -> $17
2025-11-06
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$11 -> $17
2025-11-06
upgrade
Underweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley upgraded Sonos to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $17, up from $11, following the fiscal Q4 report. The firm says Sonos is offsetting tens of millions in tariff costs with pricing actions and supply chain pressure. Meanwhile, the company's new CEO Tom Conrad has a vision to make Sonos more than an audio system. With the shares not "overly cheap," Morgan Stanley is only upgrading the shares to neutral.
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