Technical Analysis:
Based on the latest data, SMCI closed at $33.41 with a -1.33% decline. The stock has shown significant volatility, with RSI at 50.91 indicating neutral momentum. The stock is currently trading below its 200-day SMA of $57.52, suggesting a bearish long-term trend.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Key Fibonacci levels show support at $29.72 and resistance at $34.28
- Major resistance at $35.69 (Fibonacci R2)
- Critical support at $28.31 (Fibonacci S2)
News Sentiment and Catalysts:
- Loop Capital has reiterated their buy rating and raised price target to $40 from $35
- The company is facing accounting issues that resulted in a delay to filing results and getting a new auditor
- The stock exchange has given SMCI until Feb. 25 to publish its accounts
Price Prediction for Next Week:
Based on technical indicators and news sentiment:
- Bullish Scenario (40% probability): Break above $34.28 could push price to $35.69
- Bearish Scenario (35% probability): Break below $29.72 could see price test $28.31
- Consolidation Scenario (25% probability): Price may trade sideways between $29.72-$34.28
Trading Recommendation:
SELL with the following rationale:
- Trading below 200-day SMA indicates bearish long-term trend
- Ongoing accounting issues create uncertainty
- Recent price action shows weakness with -1.37% decline over past month
- Set stop loss at $34.50 (slightly above Fibonacci R1)
- Initial price target at $29.72 (Fibonacci S1)
Risk Factors:
- Accounting issues resolution could cause significant price volatility
- Market sentiment around AI sector could impact stock movement
- Overall market conditions may affect trading direction
Technical Analysis:
Based on the latest data, SMCI closed at $33.41 with a -1.33% decline. The stock has shown significant volatility, with RSI at 50.91 indicating neutral momentum. The stock is currently trading below its 200-day SMA of $57.52, suggesting a bearish long-term trend.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Key Fibonacci levels show support at $29.72 and resistance at $34.28
- Major resistance at $35.69 (Fibonacci R2)
- Critical support at $28.31 (Fibonacci S2)
News Sentiment and Catalysts:
- Loop Capital has reiterated their buy rating and raised price target to $40 from $35
- The company is facing accounting issues that resulted in a delay to filing results and getting a new auditor
- The stock exchange has given SMCI until Feb. 25 to publish its accounts
Price Prediction for Next Week:
Based on technical indicators and news sentiment:
- Bullish Scenario (40% probability): Break above $34.28 could push price to $35.69
- Bearish Scenario (35% probability): Break below $29.72 could see price test $28.31
- Consolidation Scenario (25% probability): Price may trade sideways between $29.72-$34.28
Trading Recommendation:
SELL with the following rationale:
- Trading below 200-day SMA indicates bearish long-term trend
- Ongoing accounting issues create uncertainty
- Recent price action shows weakness with -1.37% decline over past month
- Set stop loss at $34.50 (slightly above Fibonacci R1)
- Initial price target at $29.72 (Fibonacci S1)
Risk Factors:
- Accounting issues resolution could cause significant price volatility
- Market sentiment around AI sector could impact stock movement
- Overall market conditions may affect trading direction