Should I Buy SID? SID 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Companhia Siderurgica Nacional SA (SID) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

1.910

1 Day change

-7.28%

52 Week Range

2.200

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Not a good buy right now. Despite longer-term bullish moving averages, SID just broke below its pivot on a sharp -7.52% session drop while facing fresh, headline-driven operational risk (nearby flooding/pollution incident). With no Intellectia buy signal, a sell-rated analyst view (UBS) and an implied short-term drift negative, I would avoid initiating a position here and would treat this as a sell/avoid until the news overhang clears and price reclaims key levels.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating the broader trend has been constructive. However, today’s price (1.925) is slightly below the pivot (1.929) after a steep drawdown, signaling near-term weakness and fragile momentum. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0128) but contracting, consistent with fading upside momentum. RSI(6)=46.7 is neutral, not oversold—so there’s no strong mean-reversion “must-buy” setup yet. Levels: Immediate support S1=1.731 (then S2=1.608). Resistance is R1=2.128 then R2=2.251. For an impatient buyer, the reward/risk is unfavorable while price sits below pivot with room to fall toward S1. Pattern odds provided: Similar-pattern stats imply ~40% chance of -1.36% next day and -3.25% next week (near-term negative), offset by +9.2% next month (more time-dependent). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put-call ratios below 1 (OI PCR 0.64; Volume PCR 0.5) lean bullish (more call interest/volume than puts). Volume is elevated vs the 30-day average (2.11x), but absolute daily volume is very small (total volume 6), so sentiment read-through is weak. Volatility: 30D IV ~50.37 vs historical vol ~47.51 (slight IV premium). IV rank is low (~6.07) and IV percentile ~42.8, suggesting options are not pricing extreme fear, but the setup is not screaming capitulation either.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Gross margin improved materially in 2025/Q3 (29.21, +19.22% YoY), which can support re-rating if profitability stabilizes.
Options positioning skews more to calls than puts (PCRs < 1), hinting at some bullish bias.
If the Vale incident is confirmed to have no operational impact on CSN, relief could drive a rebound back toward 2.13 (R1).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Event-driven headline risk: news links CSN to potential flooding/disruption risk from Vale’s nearby mine water overflow; environmental/pollution concerns can pressure the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Price action is risk-off today (-7.52%), and price is below pivot with room to test lower supports (1.731/1.608).
Analyst stance is bearish: UBS maintains a Sell with a $1.40 target (below current price), reinforcing downside consensus risk.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to 2.165B (+8.49% YoY), and gross margin improved to 29.21 (+19.22% YoY), showing better top-line and unit economics. However, profitability deteriorated sharply: Net income fell to -25.16M (-83.39% YoY) and EPS to -0.02 (-81.82% YoY). The core issue is that improved margin hasn’t translated into bottom-line strength, leaving the equity vulnerable during negative headlines.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change: On 2025-12-15, UBS raised its price target slightly to $1.40 from $1.30 but kept a Sell rating. Wall Street pros: modest margin and revenue improvement can support recovery if earnings normalize. Wall Street cons: continued losses and a Sell rating with a target meaningfully below the current price suggest pros see limited near-term upside and elevated fundamental risk.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast SID stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SID is 1.4 USD with a low forecast of 1.4 USD and a high forecast of 1.4 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

0 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 2.060

Low

1.4

Averages

1.4

High

1.4

Current: 2.060

Low

1.4

Averages

1.4

High

1.4

UBS

Sell

upgrade

AI Analysis

2025-12-15

Reason

UBS

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-12-15

upgrade

Sell

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on CSN to $1.40 from $1.30 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares.

UBS

Caio Greiner

Strong Sell

Initiates

$1.3

2025-03-12

Reason

UBS

Caio Greiner

Price Target

$1.3

2025-03-12

Initiates

Strong Sell

Reason

UBS analyst Caio Greiner initiated coverage of CSN with a Sell rating and $1.30 price target. The firm initiated coverage of the Brazilian metals and mining sector, saying the group has a strong correlation to China's economic momentum. China's secular decline of its property sector has translated into decelerating economic activity and also demand for metal, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS is cautious on the outlook for the space.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for SID

Unlock Now

SID Should I Buy

SID Should I Buy

Should You Buy Companhia Siderurgica Nacional SA (SID) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch