Stock Price Prediction

Analysis and Insights

Fundamental Analysis:

• Earnings Outlook: National Steel Company (SID) is expected to report a loss per share of $-0.09 for the quarter ending December 31, 2024, representing a 169.23% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. This significant decline in earnings raises concerns about the company's financial health and profitability.

• Valuation Metrics: The 2024 Price to Earnings ratio for SID is -9.19, compared to an industry ratio of 10.00. This indicates that SID is underperforming its peers and may face challenges in justifying its valuation.

Technical Analysis:

• Price Action: SID closed at $1.74 on March 24, 2025, with a pre-market gain of +1.69% and a regular market loss of -1.69%. The stock is currently trading near its lower support levels, with a Fibonacci pivot point at $1.64 and immediate support at $1.49.

• Momentum Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for SID is at 68.01 (RSI_6), 65.21 (RSI_12), and 64.03 (RSI_14), indicating neutral momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is overbought at 92.16/91.90, suggesting a potential pullback.

• Trend Indicators: The MACD is slightly bullish at 0.07, but the signal line is weak, indicating limited upward momentum.

Event Impact:

• Union Concerns: The United Steelworkers union has criticized Nippon Steel's merger proposal, citing a lack of long-term commitment to production sustainability. This could create uncertainty for SID's operations and investor sentiment.

Price Forecast:

Based on the earnings outlook, technical indicators, and event impact, SID is expected to face downward pressure in the next trading week. The stock is likely to test its lower support levels, with a potential target price of $1.40.

Recommendation:

Sell SID as the combination of poor earnings expectations, overbought stochastic levels, and event-related risks suggests a bearish outlook for the short term.