SBUX Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how SBUX performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, SBUX sees a -2.36% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +3.16% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.09%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
SBUX Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
9.07B
-3.20%
-0.44%
Gross Margin
22.15%
-13.17%
-6.70%
Operating Margin
14.56%
-15.25%
-8.08%
Net Margin
10.02%
-22.98%
-13.47%
EPS
0.80
-24.53%
-13.98%
No Data Available
SBUX Earnings Analysis
Starbucks Corp Corporation (SBUX.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Fiscal Year Revenue Increase: 1. Revenue Growth: Starbucks achieved consolidated net revenues of $36.2 billion for fiscal year 2024, marking a 1% increase compared to the previous year, driven by 7% net new company-operated store growth.
Positive Store Sales Growth: 2. Strong Store Performance: Approximately 40% of U.S. company-operated stores experienced positive comparable store sales growth in fiscal year 2024, particularly benefiting from newer stores in low-density markets.
Active Membership Surge: 3. Increased Active Membership: The company reported a record high of 23.5 million active Starbucks Rewards members in Q4, with a net addition of 2.2 million members year-over-year, indicating strong customer engagement.
Dividend Growth Announcement: 4. Dividend Increase: Starbucks announced an increase in its quarterly cash dividend from $0.57 to $0.61 per share, marking the 14th consecutive year of annual increases at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20%.
Cost Reduction Success: 5. Cost Efficiency Achievements: The company’s efficiency efforts yielded approximately 250 basis points of margin improvement for the full fiscal year 2024, translating to nearly $1 billion in cost reductions throughout the P&L.
Negative
Revenue Decline Analysis: 1. Declining Revenue: Q4 consolidated revenue was $9.1 billion, down 3% from the prior year, primarily due to a 7% decline in comparable store sales.
Store Traffic Decline: 2. Traffic Challenges: U.S. comparable store sales declined by 6%, driven by a 10% decrease in transactions, indicating ongoing traffic issues across all channels.
Operating Margin Decline: 3. Operating Margin Contraction: Q4 consolidated operating margin contracted by 370 basis points to 14.4%, primarily due to increased investments in store partner wages and benefits, as well as heightened promotional activities.
Earnings Per Share Drop: 4. Earnings Per Share Decline: Q4 EPS was $0.80, down 24% from the prior year, reflecting the impact of traffic challenges and increased investments.
China Sales Decline: 5. China Market Struggles: Comparable store sales in China declined by 14%, driven by an 8% decrease in average ticket and a 6% decline in transactions, exacerbated by intensified competition and a soft macro environment.
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SBUX Earning Call Sentiment
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
SBUX.O
1.22%Positive
The earnings call presents several concerns: declining revenue and EPS, margin contraction, and challenges in customer engagement and store growth. Despite positive steps like dividend increases and cost efficiencies, the market will likely focus on the negative financial metrics and strategic uncertainties, especially the reduction in new store openings and unclear management responses. The macroeconomic challenges in China further dampen the outlook. The Q&A section highlights resource reallocation and menu simplification, but lacks clarity, adding to uncertainties. These factors suggest a negative stock price reaction over the next two weeks.