SBUX Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how SBUX performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, SBUX sees a -2.81% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +3.90% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.02%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
SBUX Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
9.07B
-3.20%
-0.44%
Gross Margin
22.15%
-13.17%
-6.70%
Operating Margin
14.56%
-15.25%
-8.08%
Net Margin
10.02%
-22.98%
-13.47%
EPS
0.80
-24.53%
-13.98%
No Data Available
SBUX Earnings Analysis
Starbucks Corp Corporation (SBUX.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Revenue Stability with Store Growth: Total company revenue reached $940 million, flat to the prior year, with a 7% net new company-operated store growth over the past twelve months.
Store Sales Improvement: U.S. comparable store sales improved sequentially throughout the quarter, particularly in the morning day part, as non-Starbucks rewards customer traffic grew quarter over quarter.
U.S. Ticket Growth Analysis: Ticket growth in the U.S. remained strong at 4%, benefiting from prior year pricing and fewer discounts, which helped offset the mix shift into lower-priced beverages.
Global Store Expansion: Starbucks opened 377 net new stores globally, with nearly 90% revenue incrementality from new company-operated stores in the U.S.
Non-Dairy Customization Growth: The company saw a significant increase in non-dairy customizations, growing mid-single digits year over year after a double-digit decline in the prior year.
Negative
Comparable Store Sales Decline: Global comparable store sales declined by 4%, primarily driven by a 4% decline in the U.S., indicating a significant drop in customer traffic and sales performance.
Operating Margin Contraction: Consolidated operating margin contracted by 380 basis points to 11.9%, primarily due to increased labor costs and the removal of the extra charge for non-dairy milk customizations, reflecting pressure on profitability.
EPS Decline Analysis: Earnings per share (EPS) decreased by 22% year-over-year to $0.69, primarily due to margin contraction and heightened investments, signaling a decline in overall financial performance.
Rising General and Administrative Expenses: General and administrative expenses (G&A) are expected to be higher than the prior year, driven by restructuring charges and lower performance-based compensation, indicating increased operational costs without immediate returns.
EPS Forecast Challenges: The company anticipates that EPS will be the lowest in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 due to seasonality and organizational restructuring, suggesting ongoing financial challenges ahead.
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SBUX Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Starbucks Q4 2024 beats EPS forecast, stock rises
SBUX.O
1.32%Positive
The earnings call highlights several concerns: declining global comparable store sales, a significant drop in EPS, and margin pressure from labor investments. The Q&A reveals management's vague responses on operational improvements and productivity targets, adding uncertainty. Despite a dividend increase, the suspension of FY 2025 guidance and a lack of share repurchase plans further contribute to a negative sentiment. The shift from discounting to broader marketing strategies may not immediately attract price-sensitive customers, and economic factors could impact sales. Overall, the financial performance and management's unclear guidance suggest a negative stock price reaction.
