RUN Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how RUN performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, RUN sees a +2.46% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +7.80% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.41%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
RUN Key Earning Data
RUN Earnings Analysis
Positive
Strong Q1 Performance: In Q1, we exceeded our volume and cash generation targets in what is seasonally the slowest quarter of the year.
Positive Cash Generation: We generated $56 million in cash, our fourth consecutive quarter of positive cash generation.
Market Share Gains and De-levering: We delivered market share gains and continued de-levering, paying down our parent debt by $27 million.
Cash Position Improvement: We ended Q1 with $605 million in unrestricted cash, a $30 million increase from the prior quarter.
Strong Customer Growth: Demand remains strong, with total customer additions growing 6% compared to the prior year and aggregate subscriber value growing 23% to more than $1.2 billion.
Customer Growth and Storage Rate: Customer additions with storage grew by over 46% from Q1 of last year, hitting a record-high 69% storage attachment rate.
Market Share Expansion: We have steadily increased our share to approximately 19% of new solar installations and about 45% of new storage installations across the country.
Subscriber Value Increase: Subscriber Value increased to approximately $52,000, a 15% increase compared to the prior year, reflecting a 7.5% discount rate this period.
Subscriber Value Increase: Aggregate subscriber value was $1.2 billion in the first quarter, a 23% increase from the prior year, resulting in net value creation of $246 million or approximately $1.09 per share.
Subscriber Value Growth: We expect aggregate subscriber value to be between $5.7 and $6 billion for the full year, representing 14% growth at the midpoint.
Negative
Tariff Impact on Costs: Tariff developments are expected to create cost headwinds of approximately $1,000 to $3,000 per subscriber in 2025, which could impact overall creation costs by 3% to 7%.
Tariff Impact Variance: The company anticipates that these tariff impacts could represent a potential variance of $100 million to $200 million within their guidance range.
Cash Generation Outlook: Despite strong demand, the current tariff situation is expected to trend the company towards the lower half of their cash generation guidance range.
First Quarter Profitability Challenges: The first quarter is traditionally the lowest margin period of the year, which may affect overall profitability as sales activities ramp up for the busier summer months.
Rising Creation Costs: Creation costs increased by 7% from the prior year, primarily due to higher battery hardware and installation labor costs, which could pressure margins going forward.
RUN FAQs
How does RUN typically perform around its earnings report dates?
RUN's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a +2.46% change leading up to the report and a +7.80% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Sunrun Inc (RUN) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
RUN Earning Call Sentiment
Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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