RUN Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how RUN performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, RUN sees a +1.41% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.71% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -2.03%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
RUN Key Earning Data
RUN Earnings Analysis
Positive
Strong Q4 Performance: The fourth quarter was exceptionally strong for Sunrun, with high-quality growth and meaningful cash generation.
Positive Cash Generation Trend: Sunrun has posted positive cash generation for three consecutive quarters and expects to continue this trend throughout 2025.
Contracted Value Growth: In Q4, contracted total value generated grew by 125% year-over-year, driven by increased customer additions and higher subscriber values.
Record Storage Attachment Rates: Storage attachment rates reached an all-time high of 62% for new customers, contributing to the highest net subscriber values ever reported by Sunrun.
Storage Capacity Expansion: The company installed 392 megawatt hours of storage in Q4, a 78% increase from the previous year, and has a total networked storage capacity of 2.5 gigawatt hours.
ARR Growth Surge: Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased by 23% year-over-year, reaching over $1.6 billion, indicating strong recurring revenue from subscribers.
Net Subscriber Value Increase: Sunrun's net subscriber value was approximately $19,177, reflecting higher battery attachment rates and improved fixed cost absorption.
Strong Financial Position: The company has a strong balance sheet with $947 million in total cash and no near-term corporate debt maturities, allowing for strategic investments and debt repayment.
Tax Equity Access: Sunrun's capital markets activities have provided access to over $1.3 billion in tax equity, supporting future project funding.
Positive Cash Generation Outlook: The company expects cash generation of $40 to $50 million in Q1 2025, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive cash generation.
Negative
Cash Generation Challenges: In Q4, cash generation was $34 million, which was lower than expected due to an $18 million investment in safe harbor equipment and slower ramp in domestic content ITC adder qualification, which collectively reduced cash generation by over $32 million.
Cash Generation Guidance Revision: The company revised its cash generation guidance for 2025 down to a range of $200 to $500 million from a prior guidance of $350 to $600 million, citing higher capital cost assumptions and slightly lower volume expectations.
Solar Installation Growth Outlook: Solar installation volumes are expected to be approximately flat next year, indicating a potential slowdown in growth compared to previous years.
Domestic Content ITC Concerns: The slower ramp in domestic content ITC adders in the Affiliate Partner business is a concern, as it affects overall cash generation and growth prospects.
Solar Installation Growth Challenges: Despite strong performance in storage attachment rates, the overall growth in solar installations is not keeping pace, which could impact future revenue generation.
RUN FAQs
How does RUN typically perform around its earnings report dates?
RUN's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a +1.41% change leading up to the report and a +2.71% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Sunrun Inc (RUN) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
RUN Earning Call Sentiment
Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
RUN.O
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