VSEC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how VSEC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, VSEC sees a -3.43% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.71% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.98%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
VSEC Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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Gross Margin
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Operating Margin
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Net Margin
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VSEC Earnings Analysis
VSE Corp Corporation (VSEC.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Aviation Segment Success: 2024 was a transformative year for VSE, driven by record revenue and profitability in our Aviation segment.
Market Position Enhancement: The acquisition of two commercial aviation aftermarket businesses strengthens VSE's position in the market.
Strategic Transformation to Aviation: The divestiture of the Federal & Defense Services segment marks a strategic transformation into a pure-play aviation aftermarket company.
Wheeler Fleet Sale Valuation: The sale of Wheeler Fleet Solutions is valued at up to $230 million, including a $140 million cash payment at closing.
Aviation Segment Growth Forecast: The Aviation segment is forecasted to grow between 6.5% and 8% in 2025, driven by increased global passenger traffic and demand for maintenance services.
Aviation Revenue Surge: Aviation revenue increased 48% to a record $227 million in Q4 2024, with both distribution and MRO businesses contributing significantly.
Aviation Segment EBITDA Surge: Adjusted EBITDA for the Aviation segment increased by 56% in Q4 2024, reaching a record $37 million.
Aviation Revenue Surge: For the full year 2024, the Aviation segment generated record revenue of $786 million, an increase of 45% year-over-year.
Aviation Revenue Increase: The company expects full year 2025 Aviation segment revenue to increase between 35% to 40%, supported by recent acquisitions.
Strong Cash Flow Performance: Operating cash flow of $55 million and free cash flow of $52 million in Q4 2024 demonstrate strong financial management.
Negative
Fleet Revenue Decline: Fleet segment revenue declined 12% to $72 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to the USPS transition to a new fleet management information system, which resulted in reduced maintenance-related activities and part requirements.
Fleet Segment EBITDA Decline: Adjusted EBITDA for the Fleet segment decreased 31% to approximately $7 million, driven by the decline in USPS sales volume.
Fleet Segment Revenue Decline: For the full year 2024, the Fleet segment generated revenue of $294 million, with a 30% decline in revenue from the USPS program, leading to a total adjusted EBITDA decline of 42%.
Adjusted Net Income Decline: Adjusted net income per diluted share declined 5% to $3.13 per share, driven by an increase in share count despite a 20% increase in adjusted net income.
Margin Dilution Impact: The near-term margin dilution from TCI and Kellstrom acquisitions is expected to have an approximate 90 basis point impact on Aviation segment margins for the full year 2025, which could affect overall profitability.
Increased Administrative Expenses: Corporate administrative expenses increased by $2 million in Q4 2024, contributing to the decline in adjusted EBITDA for the Fleet segment.
Cost Structure Review: The company anticipates a comprehensive review of its cost structure following the divestiture of the Fleet segment, indicating potential uncertainties in operational efficiency during the transition period.
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VSEC Earning Call Sentiment
VSE Corporation (NASDAQ:VSEC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
VSEC.O
-4.29%Positive
The earnings call indicates strong growth in aviation revenue and adjusted EBITDA, despite a decline in fleet revenue. Record high revenue and a positive outlook on aviation growth are strong catalysts. The Q&A section highlights balanced growth across sectors and optimism about future synergies, despite some lack of clarity on margins. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity, leading to a positive prediction.
