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RITM Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Rithm Capital Corp (RITM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
9.790
1 Day change
3.05%
52 Week Range
12.740
Analysis Updated At
2026/04/03
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Rithm Capital Corp (RITM) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While the stock shows some positive technical indicators and analyst ratings remain favorable, the company's recent financial performance is weak, and hedge funds are aggressively selling. Given the lack of significant positive catalysts and the absence of Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals, it would be prudent to hold off on purchasing this stock until more favorable conditions arise.

Technical Analysis

The MACD histogram is positive at 0.0959 and expanding, indicating a bullish momentum. RSI is at 69.313, which is neutral but nearing overbought territory. Moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. Key resistance levels are at 9.567 and 9.852, with support at 8.642 and 8.357. The stock is trading near resistance levels, suggesting limited upside in the short term.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
10
Buy
5

Positive Catalysts

  • The stock shows a 70% chance of a slight increase in the next month.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Hedge funds are aggressively selling, with a 284.34% increase in selling activity last quarter. The company's financial performance in Q4 2025 was poor, with revenue, net income, and EPS all showing significant YoY declines. No recent news or congress trading data to act as a positive catalyst.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2025, revenue dropped by 24.86% YoY to $1.36 billion. Net income fell by 79.82% YoY to $53.1 million, and EPS declined by 82% YoY to $0.09. Gross margin also decreased by 8.34% YoY to 68.87%. These figures indicate significant financial deterioration.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts maintain a generally positive outlook with Buy and Overweight ratings. However, price targets have been lowered slightly, reflecting cautious optimism. Piper Sandler and UBS have reduced their price targets to $14 and $15, respectively, citing sector volatility and recent financial results.

Wall Street analysts forecast RITM stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast RITM stock price to rise
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 9.790
sliders
Low
14
Averages
14.92
High
16
Current: 9.790
sliders
Low
14
Averages
14.92
High
16
Lucid Capital
NULL
to
Buy
initiated
$12.50
AI Analysis
2026-04-09
New
Reason
Lucid Capital
Price Target
$12.50
AI Analysis
2026-04-09
New
initiated
NULL
to
Buy
Reason
Lucid Capital initiated coverage of Rithm Capital with a Buy rating and $12.50 price target, implying a 38% total return. Rithm is a diversified alternative asset manager that is structured as a mortgage real estate investment trust, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm views the shares as attractive from a dividend yield viewpoint, saying the company currently offers a $1 per share annual dividend. Rithm has sold off in 2026 amid concerns about asset managers, but it has \"greater relative transparency\" into its balance sheet, with credit losses for 83% of its business lines disclosed and limited, contends Lucid.
Piper Sandler
Overweight
maintain
$15 -> $14
2026-04-02
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$15 -> $14
2026-04-02
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Rithm Capital to $14 from $15 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the first quarter was a "tale of two halves" for the mortgage sector. Rates steadily improved through February, reaching 5.98%, before recent volatility drove them back to nearly 6.38%. Agency MBS spreads followed a similar trajectory. Spreads tightened 15 bps to 75 bps over the 10-year Treasury on positive GSE purchase commentary, but have since widened 25-plus bps to eclipse 100 bps. This reversal stems from volatility driven by the Iran War and shifting inflation expectations. Mortgage application data was solid through mid-March but has begun to stall in recent weeks, Piper adds. Mortgage applications rose 18% sequentially during a typically seasonal slow quarter, supported by both purchase and refinance activity.
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