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RARE Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
24.610
1 Day change
-0.81%
52 Week Range
42.370
Analysis Updated At
2026/04/17
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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE) is not a strong buy at this moment for a beginner investor with a long-term horizon. The stock is currently trading in a neutral zone with no clear technical or proprietary trading signals. While analysts have mixed views, the company's financial performance shows declining profitability, and there are no significant recent positive catalysts to justify immediate action.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is positive but contracting, RSI is neutral at 67.279, and moving averages are converging, indicating no strong trend. The stock is trading near its pivot level of 23.551 with resistance at 25.614 and support at 21.488.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
4
Buy
7

Positive Catalysts

  • Morgan Stanley sees a favorable asymmetric setup for GTX-102 Phase 3 data in 2026, with potential upside of 50%-70%. The company is focused on cost reductions, which could pave the way for profitability in 2027.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing risks in the GTX-102 trial design and heterogeneity. The stock has seen multiple price target reductions due to disappointing clinical trial results and uneven revenue patterns.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 25.72% YoY to $207.28M, but net income dropped by 3.62% YoY to -$128.56M. EPS declined by 7.19% YoY to -1.29, and gross margin decreased by 4.36% YoY to 85.84%.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts have mixed ratings. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain positive outlooks with high price targets, while Goldman Sachs and others have downgraded the stock or reduced price targets due to clinical trial risks and uneven revenue patterns.

Wall Street analysts forecast RARE stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast RARE stock price to rise
17 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 24.810
sliders
Low
35
Averages
61.65
High
120
Current: 24.810
sliders
Low
35
Averages
61.65
High
120
Morgan Stanley
NULL
to
Outperform
maintain
$50 -> $67
AI Analysis
2026-04-16
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$50 -> $67
AI Analysis
2026-04-16
New
maintain
NULL
to
Outperform
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Ultragenyx to $67 from $50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm, which applies a new probability-of-success framework to Ultragenyx's GTX-102 Phase 3 Angelman readout expected in the second half of 2026, sees "a favorable asymmetric setup" with 50%-70% upside potentia. versus about 20% downside on failure, the analyst tells investors.
Goldman Sachs
Salveen Richter
Buy -> Neutral
downgrade
$61 -> $25
2026-03-24
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Salveen Richter
Price Target
$61 -> $25
2026-03-24
downgrade
Buy -> Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter downgraded Ultragenyx to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $25, down from $61. The firm cites the miss of the setrusumab Phase 3 in osteogenesis imperfecta for the downgrade. GTX-102 in Angelman syndrome is now the key value driver for Ultragenyx, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman sees risk to the Phase 3 data in the second half of the year given the trial design and disease heterogeneity.
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