Should I Buy RARE? RARE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

24.800

1 Day change

0.16%

52 Week Range

46.500

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now. With no Intellectia buy signals, a weak/fragile technical setup around key support, bearish event-driven news overhang from the failed Phase 3 setrusumab trials plus legal-investigation headlines, and short-term downside-biased pattern stats, the risk/reward is not attractive for an impatient buyer today. This is an “avoid new entry / hold only if already positioned” setup into the next catalyst (earnings on 2026-02-16).

Technical Analysis

Price is 23.345 (-3.54% today) and sitting just below the pivot (23.554), suggesting the stock is struggling to reclaim near-term control. RSI(6) at ~40 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), leaving room for further downside before a technical snapback becomes compelling. MACD histogram is above zero (0.455) but positively contracting, which often signals fading upside momentum after a bounce attempt. Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation rather than a clean uptrend. Key levels: immediate support S1=22.408 (then S2=21.70); resistance R1=24.70 (then R2=25.408). Given the provided pattern study, odds skew slightly negative (60% chance of -2.25% next day; -1.53% next week), which aligns with a cautious near-term stance.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (open interest) is call-heavy (OI put/call 0.44), which can be interpreted as longer-horizon bullish positioning or call overwriting activity. However, *today’s trading flow* is put-dominant (volume put/call 1.84), implying near-term caution/hedging. Implied vol is elevated (30d IV ~67% vs historical vol ~44%), reflecting significant uncertainty and event risk pricing; option volume vs its 30-day average is very high, consistent with active repositioning after the trial-driven repricing.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Revenue base is still growing (Q3’25 revenue +14.65% YoY), and losses narrowed YoY (net loss improved ~35%; EPS improved ~29%), supporting the view that the commercial portfolio has value even after the setrusumab setback. Several sell-side firms remain constructive on the longer-term story (multiple Buy/Overweight ratings), and expense reductions after the trial failure could extend runway. Upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings (2026-02-16 after hours) can act as a sentiment reset if guidance/expense discipline and pipeline priorities are well received.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Primary near-term overhang is the Phase 3 ORBIT/COSMIC failure for setrusumab (missed primary endpoint), which drove sharp price-target cuts and reduces confidence in near-term pipeline upside; this also raises regulatory uncertainty since bone density improvements did not translate to fracture reduction. News flow is broadly negative and includes a law firm investigation headline (Levi & Korsinsky), which can further suppress sentiment. Short-term technicals are not signaling a clean reversal, and probabilistic trend stats provided skew modestly bearish over the next day/week/month.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue increased to $159.933M (+14.65% YoY), showing continued top-line growth. Profitability is still deeply negative, but improved YoY: net income increased to -$180.413M (loss narrowed by ~35.12% YoY) and EPS improved to -1.81 (+29.29% YoY). Gross margin fell to 82.5% (-2.86% YoY), a mild deterioration but still very strong for biotech; the key takeaway is growth with improving (though still negative) earnings power. Next major checkpoint is QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-16.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend: ratings are still mostly positive (Buy/Overweight/Outperform), but price targets were cut materially after the setrusumab Phase 3 failures (e.g., Citi 103→50, Wells 65→45, Guggenheim 64→52, MS 55→50, BofA 72→58, HCW 80→60). Barclays just initiated/assumed coverage at Overweight with a $44 target, indicating some Street belief that the post-drop valuation has become attractive. Wall Street pros: diversified commercial-stage revenue streams, potential pipeline readouts ahead, and potential expense reductions improving runway. Wall Street cons: credibility and sentiment damage from the Phase 3 miss, reduced near-term approval path for setrusumab, and lingering legal/headline risk. Trading activity checks: hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.

18 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast RARE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RARE is 61.65 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 120 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

17 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 24.760

Low

Averages

61.65

High

120

Current: 24.760

Low

Averages

61.65

High

120

Barclays

Eliana Merle

Overweight

initiated

$44

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

Reason

Barclays

Eliana Merle

Price Target

$44

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

initiated

Overweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Eliana Merle assumed coverage of Ultragenyx with an Overweight rating and $44 price target. Barclays initiated coverage of 12 biotech stocks and assumed coverage of 11 with a positive view of the industry. The analyst likes the setup for the group in 2026. Many biotech stocks remain undervalued, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects continued mergers and acquisitions, "strong" underlying fundamentals, and less of a focus on drug pricing to act as "significant tailwinds."

Morgan Stanley

Maxwell Skor

Overweight

downgrade

$55 -> $50

2026-01-08

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Maxwell Skor

Price Target

$55 -> $50

2026-01-08

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley analyst Maxwell Skor lowered the firm's price target on Ultragenyx to $50 from $55 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees a continuation of U.S. small-to-mid cap biotech's outperformance in 2026 as commercial names transition from "capital consumers to producers" and Large Cap Biopharma faces a looming patent cliff, the analyst tells investors in an outlook note for the group.

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RARE Should I Buy

RARE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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