Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. Financial performance shows prudent capital utilization but also a significant net loss. The Q&A highlights promising developments in product trials and partnerships, but also reveals management's reluctance to provide detailed guidance, creating uncertainty. The share redemption plan indicates potential shareholder value but lacks immediate impact. Overall, the stock is likely to remain neutral, with no strong catalysts for significant movement. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to these factors.
Net cash used in operating and investing activities (2025) $163.7 million, favorable to guidance range of $170 million to $178 million. The favorable result was due to efficient capital utilization.
Net loss (2025) $244.1 million, in line with guidance range of $240 million to $248 million. No specific reasons for the change were mentioned.
Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash (2025 year-end) $308.4 million, favorable to guidance of $298 million. The favorable result was due to prudent capital utilization.
Ordinary shares outstanding (as of February 12, 2026) 53.8 million. No year-over-year change or reasons for change were mentioned.
Debt (2025 year-end) $0, indicating a simple capital structure. No year-over-year change or reasons for change were mentioned.
Prasinezumab: Advanced into Phase III PARAISO trial for early Parkinson's disease with 900 participants. Demonstrated consistent slowing of disease progression in Phase II trials.
Coramitug: Advanced into Phase III CLEOPATTRA trial for ATTR-CM with 1,280 patients. Phase II results showed positive NT-proBNP and echocardiogram changes.
BMS-986446: Phase II TargetTau-1 trial for early Alzheimer's disease fully enrolled, with completion expected in 2027. Fast Track designation obtained from FDA.
PRX019: Phase I trial ongoing, expected completion in 2026.
CYTOPE Technology: Introduced for targeting intracellular disease pathways, with focus on TDP-43 for ALS.
ATTR-CM Market: Coramitug represents a multibillion-dollar market opportunity, with Prothena eligible for up to $1.13 billion in milestone payments.
Alzheimer's Market: BMS-986446 and PRX019 target a multibillion-dollar market opportunity, with potential milestone payments of $562.5 million and $617.5 million, respectively.
Parkinson's Market: Prasinezumab has a global peak sales opportunity greater than $3.5 billion, with Prothena eligible for up to $620 million in milestone payments.
Financial Performance: 2025 net cash used in operations was $163.7 million, favorable to guidance. Ended 2025 with $308.4 million in cash and no debt.
2026 Financial Guidance: Net cash used in operations expected to be $50-$55 million. Potential $105 million in milestone payments not included in guidance.
Clinical Partnerships: Focus on capturing value from partnerships, including potential $105 million in 2026 milestones.
Share Redemption Program: Approved and confirmed for 2026.
Preclinical Portfolio: Investing in CYTOPE technology and exploring research collaborations for future licensing deals.
Regulatory Approvals: The company faces risks related to obtaining necessary regulatory approvals for its clinical trials and programs, as highlighted by the mention of approvals from the Irish High Court and other regulatory bodies.
Clinical Trial Success: There is a risk of clinical trial failures or delays, as evidenced by the ongoing trials for prasinezumab, coramitug, and other programs, which have long timelines and uncertain outcomes.
Financial Dependence on Milestones: The company’s financial projections rely heavily on achieving up to $105 million in clinical milestone payments in 2026, which are contingent on the success of partner programs.
Market Competition: The company operates in highly competitive markets, such as treatments for Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, and ATTR-CM, where other companies are also developing therapies.
Economic Viability of Programs: The economic success of programs like prasinezumab and coramitug depends on achieving significant market penetration and demonstrating clear therapeutic differentiation.
Supply Chain and Operational Risks: Potential supply chain disruptions or operational challenges could impact the development and delivery of therapies.
Dependence on Partnerships: The company’s reliance on partnerships with large pharmaceutical companies like Roche, Novo Nordisk, and Bristol Myers Squibb introduces risks if these partners fail to meet their obligations or if collaborations are terminated.
Cash Flow and Capital Utilization: The company’s cash flow projections depend on prudent capital utilization and achieving financial milestones, with limited room for error given its $308.4 million cash balance.
2026 Financial Guidance: Prothena expects full-year 2026 net cash used in operating and investing activities to be between $50 million and $55 million. The company anticipates ending the year with approximately $255 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash. The estimated net loss for 2026 is projected to be between $67 million and $72 million, including $24 million in non-cash share-based compensation expense. This guidance excludes up to $105 million in potential clinical milestone payments from strategic partners in 2026.
Clinical Milestone Payments: Prothena has the potential to earn up to $105 million in aggregate clinical milestone payments in 2026. These payments are contingent on the advancement of coramitug for ATTR amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy by Novo Nordisk and PRX019 for neurodegenerative diseases by Bristol Myers Squibb.
Clinical Trial Timelines: The Phase III PARAISO trial for prasinezumab in early Parkinson's disease, initiated by Roche, is expected to have primary completion in 2029. Similarly, the Phase III CLEOPATTRA trial for coramitug in ATTR-CM patients, initiated by Novo Nordisk, is also expected to have primary completion in 2029. The Phase II TargetTau-1 trial for BMS-986446 in early Alzheimer's disease, conducted by Bristol Myers Squibb, is expected to complete in the first half of 2027. Prothena's Phase I trial for PRX019 is on track for completion in 2026.
Future Milestone Payments: Prothena's four partner clinical programs have the potential to deliver up to approximately $3 billion in future milestone payments, in addition to royalties.
Strategic Priorities for 2026: Prothena aims to capture value from clinical partnerships, including potential milestone payments, implement a share redemption program, and invest in its preclinical portfolio to support ongoing partnering efforts, particularly for its CYTOPE technology.
Share Redemption Program: Prothena has received all necessary approvals from its extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders and the Irish High Court to support a share redemption program in 2026.
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. Financial performance shows prudent capital utilization but also a significant net loss. The Q&A highlights promising developments in product trials and partnerships, but also reveals management's reluctance to provide detailed guidance, creating uncertainty. The share redemption plan indicates potential shareholder value but lacks immediate impact. Overall, the stock is likely to remain neutral, with no strong catalysts for significant movement. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to these factors.
Earnings call shows EPS and net loss near lower guidance, no share repurchase, and uncertainties in AL amyloidosis treatment. Q&A reveals lack of specifics on critical issues and unclear management responses, indicating potential risks. Although management is optimistic about birtamimab's market potential, the financial metrics and lack of guidance clarity suggest a negative sentiment. Given the small-cap nature of the company, this could lead to a stock price decline of -2% to -8%.
The company's financial performance was better than expected, with efficient resource management and strong cash reserves. The Q&A session highlighted positive trial developments, such as strong patient enrollment and promising safety profiles, despite some management evasiveness on specific data updates. These factors, combined with the company's market cap, suggest a positive stock price movement within the 2% to 8% range.
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