Should I Buy PBR? PBR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

15.430

1 Day change

-0.61%

52 Week Range

15.940

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

PBR is not a good buy right now. Price is extended/overbought (RSI_6 ~97.8) and sitting just below resistance (R1 15.462) while the only fresh Street action is a downgrade to Neutral with a $15 target (below the current pre-market ~15.36). With no Intellectia buy signals today and option positioning leaning cautious (OI put/call > 1), the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable for an impatient buyer. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bullish but stretched. MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.342), and moving averages are stacked bullishly (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an uptrend. However, RSI_6 at 97.753 signals extreme overbought conditions, increasing odds of a pullback/mean reversion. Key levels: Pivot support ~14.122 (near-term “reset” zone), resistance R1 ~15.462 then R2 ~16.291. With pre-market at ~15.36 (near R1), upside is constrained unless it cleanly breaks above R1. Pattern-based forward stats also skew negative: ~60% chance of -0.87% next day, -3.09% next week, -9.61% next month—consistent with an overbought fade rather than a fresh entry.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options sentiment is mixed-to-cautious. Open interest put/call ratio at 1.2 suggests heavier protective/bearish positioning outstanding, while same-day volume put/call at 0.83 is slightly call-leaning (more short-term dip-buying than panic hedging). Implied vol (30d ~28.64) is modest with low IV rank (~16) and IV percentile (~32.8), meaning options are not pricing an outsized move. Notably, today’s option volume is well below its 30-day average (~49.78%), which reduces the strength of any directional read.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Reserve outlook: Petrobras estimates proven reserves rising to ~12.1B barrels by 2025 with a strong reserve replacement rate (175%), supportive for longer-term production/asset value narrative.
- Technical trend remains upward (bullish MA stack, positive MACD), so any pullback could still be within a broader uptrend.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

near resistance (R1 ~15.462), increasing near-term pullback risk.
is below current price.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to ~23.48B (+0.48% YoY), net income increased to ~6.00B (+2.27% YoY), and EPS to 0.47 (+2.17% YoY). The key issue is profitability trend: gross margin fell to 41.63% (-10.82% YoY), indicating margin compression despite modest top-line and earnings growth—consistent with sensitivity to pricing decisions and mix.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst change: On 2026-01-16, BTG Pactual (Gustavo Cunha) downgraded Petrobras to Neutral from Buy and set a $15 price target. Wall Street pros: strong asset/reserve story and cash-generation potential. Cons: policy/pricing interference risk (highlighted by fuel price moves), margin compression, and after the rally the stock appears technically overheated with targets not supporting immediate upside.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast PBR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PBR is 15.15 USD with a low forecast of 13.3 USD and a high forecast of 17 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 15.520

Low

13.3

Averages

15.15

High

Current: 15.520

Low

13.3

Averages

15.15

High

BTG Pactual

Gustavo Cunha

Buy -> Neutral

downgrade

$15

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

Reason

BTG Pactual

Gustavo Cunha

Price Target

$15

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

downgrade

Buy -> Neutral

Reason

BTG Pactual analyst Gustavo Cunha downgraded Petrobras to Neutral from Buy with a $15 price target.

JPMorgan

NULL -> Overweight

maintain

$16 -> $17

2025-09-24

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$16 -> $17

2025-09-24

maintain

NULL -> Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Petrobras to $17 from $16 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says data from Sapinhoa and Tupi show stable production until recovery hit 10%, after which the water cut only rises gradually. It incorporated the updated assumptions in Petrobras' model.

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PBR Should I Buy

PBR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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