PBR Should I Buy
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Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this moment. While the company has shown growth in revenue and net income, the recent downgrades by analysts, lack of significant trading signals, and mixed technical indicators suggest a cautious approach. Additionally, the pre-market price decline and legal risks in Namibia further weigh against an immediate buy decision.
The MACD is negative and expanding downward, indicating bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 55.003, suggesting no clear overbought or oversold conditions. Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the stock is trading near its pivot level of $15.25, with key support at $14.667 and resistance at $15.832.
Petrobras achieved record oil and derivatives exports in Q4, with a 79% YoY increase. Brazil's oil output also rose significantly. The company reported strong sales of oil, gas, and derivatives at 3.4 million barrels per day in Q4.
Legal risks in Namibia due to invalid offshore license transactions could impact operations. The gross margin dropped by -10.82% YoY, and the stock has a 40% chance of declining in the next week.
In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 0.48% YoY to $23.48 billion, net income rose by 2.27% YoY to $6.00 billion, and EPS grew by 2.17% YoY to $0.47. However, gross margin declined by -10.82% YoY to 41.63%.
Bradesco BBI and BTG Pactual downgraded Petrobras to Neutral from Outperform/Buy, with price targets of $17 and $15, respectively.
