Should You Buy Patria Investments Ltd (PAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
14.610
1 Day change
-0.41%
52 Week Range
17.800
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Buy now. PAX is trading pre-market around 14.58 (near key support S2=14.36) with an extremely oversold RSI (RSI_6≈10.5) and very bullish options positioning (very low put/call ratios). While the MACD is still bearishly expanding (trend pressure remains), the setup favors an oversold rebound from support rather than waiting for a cleaner trend reversal—especially given the user’s impatient profile and the lack of a need to optimize entry timing.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Pre-market ~14.58, sitting just above S2=14.36 and below S1=15.109, with Pivot at 16.322 overhead (meaning the stock is currently trading in a weaker zone but at a nearby support area).
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.32 and negatively expanding indicates the prevailing trend has been bearish and downside momentum has not fully cooled.
Oscillators: RSI_6 ~10.55 signals an extreme oversold condition, increasing the odds of a short-term snapback.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the prior trend may be losing clarity/strength; combined with oversold RSI, this often precedes mean-reversion bounces.
Pattern/stat model: Similar-pattern analysis indicates a high probability of near-term upside (+5.11% next day, +4.39% next week, +11.64% next month), supporting a tactical long entry near support.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Put/call ratios are extremely low on both open interest (0.11) and volume (0.09), reflecting strongly bullish/skewed call interest.
Activity: Today’s option volume (47) is elevated vs the 30-day average (114.63% of avg), suggesting fresh interest.
Volatility: IV30 ~32.98 vs historical vol ~22.96 implies options are pricing more movement than recent realized volatility; IV percentile ~52.4 (mid-range) indicates not extremely expensive but not cheap either.
Takeaway: Options flow and positioning are decisively bullish and consistent with traders leaning toward an upside rebound from current depressed levels.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Oversold rebound setup: RSI is extremely oversold and price is near S2 support (14.36), improving short-term bounce odds.
Bullish options sentiment: Very low put/call ratios (OI and volume) point to aggressive call-skew.
Analyst support: Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy and raised PT to $20 (from $18), reinforcing upside narrative.
scheduled 2026-02-10 pre-market—can act as a sentiment/positioning driver in the run-up.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Trend still bearish: MACD is below zero and worsening (negatively expanding), so the stock can continue drifting lower even if oversold.
Overhead resistance: Key reclaim levels are S1=15.109 and Pivot=16.322; failure to regain these can cap rebounds.
No supportive news flow: No recent news in the past week—no fresh external catalyst to immediately reverse the trend.
Earnings risk: Upcoming earnings can introduce gap risk if results or guidance disappoint relative to expectations (Est. EPS ~0.47 for QDEC 2025).
Influential/political activity: No recent congress trading data available; no confirmed politician-driven tailwind from disclosed buys.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (2025/Q3):
- Revenue: 93.43M, +31.81% YoY (strong top-line growth).
- Net income: 22.57M, +4743.56% YoY (large jump, likely aided by base effects and/or non-linear cost/fee dynamics).
- EPS: 0.14, flat YoY (despite net income surge, per-share growth didn’t expand—watch share count and/or other below-the-line impacts).
- Gross margin: 47.54%, +15.64% YoY (profitability trend improved).
Overall: Fundamentals in the most recent quarter point to improving growth and margins, supportive of a higher valuation multiple if sustained.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes:
- 2026-01-28: Goldman Sachs raised PT to $20 from $18; maintained Buy.
- 2025-12-10: BofA raised PT to $17 from $16; maintained Neutral.
Wall Street pros: Multiple PT increases recently, including a bullish Buy view from GS, imply improving confidence and perceived upside from current prices.
Wall Street cons: Not unanimous—BofA remains Neutral, suggesting some skepticism on near-term upside, valuation, or visibility.
Net take: Analyst trend is modestly improving (targets rising), with overall tone leaning constructive but not universally bullish.
Wall Street analysts forecast PAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PAX is 17 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 17 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast PAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PAX is 17 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 17 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 14.670
Low
17
Averages
17
High
17
Current: 14.670
Low
17
Averages
17
High
17
Goldman Sachs
Buy
upgrade
$18 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$18 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Patria Investments to $20 from $18 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
BofA
Craig Siegenthaler
Neutral
maintain
$16 -> $17
2025-12-10
Reason
BofA
Craig Siegenthaler
Price Target
$16 -> $17
2025-12-10
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA analyst Craig Siegenthaler raised the firm's price target on Patria Investments to $17 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Looking ahead to 2026, the firm now favors the alternative asset managers to online brokers due to what it sees as a better valuation and positioning setup combined with a stronger macro backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a note on the brokers, asset managers and exchanges group.
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