Should I Buy NVAX? NVAX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Novavax Inc (NVAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

9.350

1 Day change

1.30%

52 Week Range

10.640

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Novavax Inc (NVAX) is not a strong buy at this time for a beginner investor with a long-term horizon and $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. While the recent licensing deal with Pfizer provides some positive financial outlook, the company's declining revenue, negative net income, and mixed analyst ratings suggest caution. The technical indicators show a neutral to slightly bullish trend, but the lack of strong trading signals and limited commercial upside make it less compelling for long-term investment at the moment.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is above 0 and positively contracting, indicating a mildly bullish trend. The RSI is in the neutral zone at 62.865, and moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). Key support and resistance levels are Pivot: 8.583, R1: 9.721, S1: 7.445, R2: 10.425, S2: 6.741. However, the stock's recent price decline (-5.95% in the regular market) raises concerns about short-term momentum.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

The $30 million licensing deal with Pfizer for the Matrix-M adjuvant, with potential milestone payments of up to $500 million, enhances the company's financial outlook. Analysts see potential growth opportunities from the deal. Gross margin increased significantly YoY in Q3 2025, indicating improved operational efficiency.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Revenue dropped by -16.64% YoY in Q3 2025, and net income remains negative despite some improvement. Analysts have mixed ratings, with several firms lowering price targets and maintaining underperform or hold ratings. The declining COVID-19 vaccine market is a near-term headwind.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, revenue declined to $70.45 million (-16.64% YoY), but net income improved to -$202.38 million (+66.84% YoY). EPS increased to -1.25 (+64.47% YoY), and gross margin improved significantly to 69.49 (+145.81% YoY). While there are signs of operational improvement, the company remains unprofitable.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts have mixed views on NVAX. BofA raised its price target to $7 from $6 but maintained an Underperform rating, citing uncertainty about development timing. JPMorgan lowered its price target to $6 from $7, citing limited commercial upside. B. Riley maintained a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $16 from $18, highlighting diversified revenue streams and early-stage pipeline potential. Overall, the sentiment is cautious with limited upside in the near term.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NVAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVAX is 10.5 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

0 Hold

3 Sell

Hold

Current: 9.230

Low

Averages

10.5

High

Current: 9.230

Low

Averages

10.5

High

BofA

Underperform

maintain

$6 -> $7

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$6 -> $7

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

maintain

Underperform

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on Novavax (NVAX) to $7 from $6 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares after the company announced a non-exclusive license agreement with Pfizer (PFE) for use of Matrix-M adjuvant in vaccine products in up to two infectious disease fields. While the firm thinks the agreement is a positive sign for interest in the technology and the upfront cash is a plus, it sees the cadence of development as an outstanding question and reiterates an Underperform rating as it awaits greater clarity on the expected development timing for assets from licensing agreements, the analyst tells investors.

JPMorgan

Underweight

downgrade

$7 -> $6

2025-11-18

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$7 -> $6

2025-11-18

downgrade

Underweight

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Novavax to $6 from $7 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm sees limited commercial upside for the company with no material pipeline catalysts next year.

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NVAX Should I Buy

NVAX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Novavax Inc (NVAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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