NVAX Should I Buy
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Novavax Inc (NVAX) is not a strong buy for a beginner investor with a long-term focus and $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. The stock shows weak technical indicators, neutral sentiment from hedge funds and insiders, and no significant positive catalysts. Additionally, financial performance remains poor with declining revenue and negative net income. Analysts maintain underperform and underweight ratings, and the options data suggests limited bullish sentiment. Given these factors, holding off on investing in NVAX at this time is recommended.
The MACD is negative and expanding, indicating bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 44.05, and moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. The stock is trading below the pivot level of 8.546, with key support at 7.99 and resistance at 9.102. Overall, technical indicators suggest a weak trend.
The non-exclusive license agreement with Pfizer for Matrix-M adjuvant technology is a positive development. Gross margin improved significantly in Q3 2025, showing operational efficiency.
Revenue declined by 16.64% YoY in Q3 2025, and net income remains negative. Analysts have lowered price targets and maintain underperform and underweight ratings. The stock has a 60% chance of declining in the short term based on historical patterns. No recent significant insider or hedge fund activity, and no congress trading data is available.
In Q3 2025, revenue dropped by 16.64% YoY to $70.45M. Net income improved but remains negative at -$202.38M. EPS increased to -1.25, up 64.47% YoY. Gross margin improved significantly to 69.49%, up 145.81% YoY. Despite operational improvements, the overall financial performance remains weak.
Analysts from BofA and JPMorgan have raised and lowered price targets, respectively, but both maintain underperform/underweight ratings. There is skepticism about the company's commercial upside and pipeline catalysts.
