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NVAX Earnings

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Earning Analysis

Welcome to our in-depth analysis of Novavax Inc(NVAX) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of Novavax Inc earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.

Earnings Forecast

Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate

Surprise Analysis

Name
EPS
Revenue
Price Reaction
Fiscal QuarterEarning DateTimeEstimateActualSurprise%EstimateActualSurprise%1D5D
Fiscal Quarter
Earning Date
Time
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
1D
5D
FY2025Q32025-11-06Pre-Market-1.08-0.62+42.5944.87M70.45M+56.99-1.30-3.25
FY2025Q22025-08-06Pre-Market-0.190.62+426.32165.01M239.24M+44.98+12.63+19.32
FY2025Q12025-05-08Pre-Market0.712.93+312.68343.85M666.66M+93.88+11.93+4.03
FY2024Q42025-02-27Pre-Market-0.75-0.51+32.0084.38M88.31M+4.66-3.55+7.79
FY2024Q22024-08-08Pre-Market1.640.99-39.63382.78M415.48M+8.54+9.06+13.82
FY2024Q12024-05-10--1.04-1.05-0.96101.45M93.86M-7.49+98.66+222.15
FY2023Q42024-02-28--0.49-1.44-193.88321.97M291.34M-9.51-26.74-7.48
FY2023Q32023-11-09--1.82-1.26+30.7796.50M186.99M+93.76-1.32-8.82
FY2023Q22023-08-08--1.240.58+146.77258.99M424.43M+63.88-3.86-3.72
-2023-05-09--3.38-3.41-0.89---+27.79+8.86
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NVAX Earnings Analysis

Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, Novavax Inc reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-11-06. The company achieved an EPS of -0.62, compared to analyst estimates of -1.08 by 42.59% . Revenue for the quarter reached 70.45M compared to expectations of 44.87M by 56.99% .
The stock price reacted with a -1.30% one-day change and a -3.25% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in Novavax Inc growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

NVAX Earnings Forecast

Looking ahead, Novavax Inc(NVAX) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 90.26M and an EPS of -0.55.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Upward by 0.9%, while EPS estimates have been Revise Downward by -3.27%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Downward by -22.03% . These revisions correlate with a -13.16% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in Novavax Inc long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.

Estimate Revision

The chart shows the correlation between NVAX's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
up Image
+0.9%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
Revise Downward
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-3.27%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
Revise Downward
down Image
-22.03%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Down
down Image
-13.16%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:1.06B
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:2.08
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Stock Price6.86
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Financial AI Agent

NVAX Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective

Novavax Inc revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-11-06,Pre-Market):
EPS: -0.62 (Actual) vs.-1.08 (Estimate) (42.59%)
Revenue: 70.45M (Actual) vs. 44.87M (Estimate) (56.99%)
Price Reaction: -1.30%(1-Day), -3.25%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-08-06,Pre-Market):
EPS: 0.62 (Actual) vs.-0.19 (Estimate) (426.32%)
Revenue: 239.24M (Actual) vs. 165.01M (Estimate) (44.98%)
Price Reaction: 12.63%(1-Day), 19.32%(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-05-08,Pre-Market):
EPS: 2.93 (Actual) vs.0.71 (Estimate) (312.68%)
Revenue: 666.66M (Actual) vs. 343.85M (Estimate) (93.88%)
Price Reaction: 11.93%(1-Day), 4.03%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how NVAX performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NVAX sees a -0.57% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +11.21% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +12.33%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed -1.98% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by -18.05% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
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Transcript Summary

Novavax Inc (NVAX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-11-06
The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture. While there are positive aspects such as increased demand for Matrix-M and potential milestone earnings from Sanofi, there are concerns about delayed profitability goals and unclear guidance on government stockpiles. The Q&A session revealed optimism about partnerships and technology, but also highlighted uncertainties in timelines and profitability targets. Considering the company's small-cap status, these mixed signals suggest a neutral stock price movement in the short term.
Novavax Inc (NVAX) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-08-06
The earnings call reveals significant revenue decline and weak product sales, despite some positive milestones and cost reductions. The Q&A session highlights uncertainties, especially regarding partnerships and future vaccine approvals. The lack of specific guidance on key projects and the absence of new partnerships or significant positive catalysts further contribute to a negative sentiment. Given the company's small market cap, the stock price is likely to react negatively in the short term, falling within the -2% to -8% range.
Novavax Inc (NVAX) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-05-08
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with a significant revenue increase and reduced liabilities, bolstered by a strategic partnership with Sanofi. Despite some uncertainty in the Q&A, the partnership and financial metrics suggest positive sentiment. The lack of clarity on post-marketing commitments and FDA approval is a concern, but the raised revenue guidance and cost reductions are positive indicators. Given the company's small-cap status, these factors are likely to result in a positive stock price movement in the short term.
Novavax Inc (NVAX) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-05-08
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and reduced expenses. The partnership with Sanofi and raised revenue guidance are positive indicators. The Q&A section reveals some uncertainty regarding FDA commitments, but overall sentiment remains positive due to strong product sales and strategic partnerships. Given the market cap and these factors, a positive stock price movement is expected.
Novavax Inc (NVAX) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-02-27
The earnings call reflects mixed signals: declining revenue and reduced guidance suggest caution, but improved cost structure and strategic partnerships offer optimism. The Q&A indicates management's avoidance of specifics, which could create uncertainty. Considering the market cap, these factors likely balance out, leading to a neutral stock price movement prediction.
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2024-11-12
The earnings call reveals several concerning factors: a decrease in revenue guidance, supply chain challenges, and vague responses in the Q&A, particularly regarding trial timelines and safety concerns. Despite a strong partnership with Sanofi, the overall financial performance and market conditions appear weak. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, resulting in a predicted negative stock movement of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-08-08
The Sanofi partnership and its associated milestones, royalties, and upfront payments provide a strong positive financial outlook. Despite a slight revenue decline, the cost reduction efforts and significant cash inflow from Sanofi bolster financial health. The Q&A revealed strong retail pharmacy contracting and strategic alignment with the FDA, although management's lack of clarity on dose volumes and pipeline timelines slightly tempers enthusiasm. Overall, the market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to positive news, leading to a predicted stock price increase of 2% to 8% in the next two weeks.

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FAQ

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What were the key highlights of NVAX’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q3?

NVAX reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-11-06, showcasing a revenue of 70.45M against an estimate of 44.87M, resulting in a 56.99% surprise. The EPS was -0.62, surpassing the expected -1.08 by 42.59% . The stock experienced a -1.3% price change on the earnings day and a -3.25% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.
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How did NVAX’s stock price react after the FY2025Q3 earnings release?

Following NVAX’s FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-11-06, the stock price moved by -1.30% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a -3.25% change. Historically, NVAX’s stock price tends to shift by an average of -0.57% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and +11.21% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.
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What are the revenue and EPS estimates for NVAX for 2025/Q4?

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate NVAX’s annual revenue to reach 90.26M, while the EPS is projected at -0.55. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue Revise Upward by 0.9% and EPS estimates Revise Downward by -22.03% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.
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How does NVAX’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?

The correlation between NVAX’s stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were Revise Upward by 0.9%, while EPS estimates moved Revise Downward by -22.03% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.
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What should investors expect from NVAX’s next earnings report?

Based on historical trends, NVAX’s stock price typically moves by -0.57% in the 10 days before its earnings and +11.21% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of -0.55 and revenue of 90.26M.
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What is the sentiment in Novavax Inc (NVAX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary?

The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture. While there are positive aspects such as increased demand for Matrix-M and potential milestone earnings from Sanofi, there are concerns about delayed profitability goals and unclear guidance on government stockpiles. The Q&A session revealed optimism about partnerships and technology, but also highlighted uncertainties in timelines and profitability targets. Considering the company's small-cap status, these mixed signals suggest a neutral stock price movement in the short term.
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