NVAX Earnings

NVAX reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-11-06, showcasing a revenue of 70.00M against an estimate of 45.00M, resulting in a 56.99% surprise. The EPS was -0.62, surpassing the expected -1.08 by 42.59% . The stock experienced a -1.3% price change on the earnings day and a -3.25% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following NVAX's FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-11-06, the stock price moved by -1.30% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a -3.25% change. Historically, NVAX's stock price tends to shift by an average of -0.57% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and +11.21% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate NVAX’s annual revenue to reach 90.00M, while the EPS is projected at -1.00. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue Revise Upward by 0.03% and EPS estimates Revise Downward by -23.01% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.

The correlation between NVAX's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were Revise Upward by 0.03%, while EPS estimates moved Revise Downward by -23.01% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, NVAX's stock price typically moves by -0.57% in the 10 days before its earnings and +11.21% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of -1.00 and revenue of 90.00M.

The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture. While there are positive aspects such as increased demand for Matrix-M and potential milestone earnings from Sanofi, there are concerns about delayed profitability goals and unclear guidance on government stockpiles. The Q&A session revealed optimism about partnerships and technology, but also highlighted uncertainties in timelines and profitability targets. Considering the company's small-cap status, these mixed signals suggest a neutral stock price movement in the short term.