Not a good buy right now: price action and momentum are bearish and the stock is breaking down into support.
With no Intellectia signals today and no near-term news catalyst, the path of least resistance remains lower despite being technically oversold.
If you’re looking to enter immediately (impatient entry), this setup is low-quality; the better action is to wait for a clear reversal or reclaim of key levels.
Trend: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating both long- and short-term downtrend alignment.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.143) and expanding lower, confirming increasing downside momentum.
RSI: RSI_6 ~22 suggests oversold conditions (bounce possible), but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Levels: Current price 23.26 is below S2 (23.325) and well below S1 (23.932) and Pivot (24.913) — this is a breakdown, not a bounce.
Near-term statistical pattern read: modest upside chance next day (+1.04%), but negative bias over week (-1.1%) and month (-0.55%), aligning with the bearish trend.
Positive Catalysts
increases the odds of a short-term reflex bounce.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Strong bearish technicals: downtrend MAs + worsening MACD + breakdown below key support levels.
Profitability deterioration: 2025/Q3 net income -55.22% YoY and EPS -55.56% YoY despite revenue growth.
Sector backdrop: multiple analysts highlight P&C cycle softening into 2026 (more competition/capital supply), risking slower growth/pricing and margin pressure.
No fresh news catalyst in the past week to reverse sentiment; next major catalyst is earnings (binary risk).
Takeaway: Growth is present, but earnings power is currently trending the wrong way; the market is likely reacting to margin/earnings durability concerns.
Next key event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-16 (After Hours); EPS estimate shown as 0.10.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes show price targets rising, but ratings remain mixed:
2026-01-07 Goldman Sachs: PT to $32.50 (from $30), Buy; warns cycle is softening and Street margins/growth may be too optimistic.
2025-11-17 Morgan Stanley: PT to $27 (from $26), Equal Weight; also flags softening cycle into 2026.
2025-11-13 Mizuho: PT to $26 (from $23), Underperform.
2025-11-13 BofA: PT to $22.50 (from $21), Underperform; says growth/margins are top tier but already priced in.
Wall Street pros vs cons summary:
Pros: strong growth narrative, at least one high-conviction Buy with large implied upside.
Cons: majority tone is cautious/negative (2 Underperforms + 1 Equal Weight), with a consistent concern that cycle dynamics will pressure pricing/margins.
Influence/flow checks:
Hedge funds: Neutral (no significant trend last quarter).
Insiders: Neutral (no significant trend last month).
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (last 90 days).
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast NP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NP is 28.45 USD with a low forecast of 22.5 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NP is 28.45 USD with a low forecast of 22.5 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 23.170
Low
22.5
Averages
28.45
High
35
Current: 23.170
Low
22.5
Averages
28.45
High
35
Goldman Sachs
Buy
maintain
$30
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$30
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
maintain
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Neptune Insurance to $32.50 from $30 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. In a sector note on Americas Insurance, the firm said it expects "strong and fairly resilient" insurer profitability for the next few years, but added that it believes we are "solidly in the softening phase" of the P&C insurance cycle, which leads to "increased capital supply and competition, which should drive a deceleration in growth/pricing/margins, that we think are broadly underappreciated within Street estimates."
Morgan Stanley
Bob Huang
Equal Weight
maintain
$26 -> $27
2025-11-17
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Bob Huang
Price Target
$26 -> $27
2025-11-17
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang raised the firm's price target on Neptune Insurance to $27 from $26 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm updated models in the insurance space post the Q3 reports. For property and casualty, Morgan Stanley sees a softening cycle heading into 2026, the analyst tells investors.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for NP
