NOTE Should I Buy
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FiscalNote Holdings Inc (NOTE) is not a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. The stock faces significant challenges, including delisting risks, weak financial performance, and bearish technical indicators. Despite some positive developments like the launch of PolicyNote MCP, the overall sentiment and outlook remain negative.
The stock is in a bearish trend with MACD negatively expanding, RSI indicating oversold conditions at 7.087, and bearish moving averages (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). Support levels are weak, with S1 at 0.587 and S2 at 0.457, indicating potential further downside.
FiscalNote launched PolicyNote MCP in the OpenAI App Store, which could enhance market share and revenue growth. Additionally, a partnership with Good Wolf Studios aims to create new revenue opportunities in the prediction market ecosystem.
The company received a delisting notification from the NYSE due to non-compliance with share price standards, creating significant uncertainty. Financial performance is weak, with revenue dropping by 24.66% YoY in Q4 2025 and thinning liquidity. Analyst concerns include weak guidance, interim losses, and lack of near-term catalysts.
In Q4 2025, revenue dropped to $22.2M (-24.66% YoY), net income improved to -$22.87M (up 70.90% YoY), and EPS increased to -1.45 (up 29.46% YoY). However, gross margin declined to 71.2% (-3.71% YoY), and free cash flow is not expected until Q1 2027.
Analysts maintain a Buy rating but have significantly lowered price targets due to weak financials and thinning liquidity. Ladenburg reduced the target to $9.75 from $11, while Roth Capital lowered it to $3 from $5, citing concerns about profitability and lack of catalysts.
