NOTE Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how NOTE performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NOTE sees a +8.67% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +3.12% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -3.04%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
NOTE Key Earning Data
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NOTE Earnings Analysis
FiscalNote Holdings Inc Corporation (NOTE.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement: FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. reported adjusted EBITDA of $9.8 million for 2024, a year-over-year improvement of over $17 million and 1,400 basis points, indicating significant operational efficiency improvements.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA Milestone: The company achieved its first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024, marking an important milestone in its financial performance.
Debt Reduction Achievement: FiscalNote reduced its senior debt by more than 60% in the past year, demonstrating a strong commitment to improving its capital structure and financial health.
Improved Cash Flow Operations: Cash flow from operations improved significantly by over $30 million in 2024, indicating a clear path towards positive operating cash flow.
Policy Note Platform Launch: The launch of the Policy Note platform in January 2025 is expected to drive customer engagement and retention, with early indicators showing strong adoption and positive feedback from users.
Revenue Forecast for 2025: The company is forecasting total revenues for 2025 in the range of $94 million to $100 million, reflecting confidence in its growth strategy and product offerings.
2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: FiscalNote's adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 is projected to be between $10 million and $12 million, more than double the adjusted EBITDA margins on a pro forma basis compared to 2024.
Negative
EPS Performance Analysis: Reported EPS of $-0.1 was in line with expectations but indicates ongoing financial struggles.
Q4 Revenue Decline: Total revenue for Q4 2024 was $29.5 million, lower than the prior year period, primarily due to the divestiture of Board.org.
ARR Decline Analysis: Annual recurring revenue (ARR) decreased to $107 million from $109 million in 2023, indicating a decline in customer retention and growth.
Net Revenue Retention Decline: Net revenue retention fell to 98% from 99% in the prior year, suggesting challenges in maintaining existing customer revenue.
GAAP Net Loss Analysis: The company experienced a GAAP net loss of $13.4 million in Q4 2024, despite improvements in adjusted EBITDA, highlighting ongoing profitability issues.
Negative Cash Flow Struggles: Cash flow from operations was negative $5.3 million in 2024, indicating that the company is still struggling to generate positive cash flow despite improvements.
Revenue Guidance Uncertainty: The 2025 revenue guidance of $94 million to $100 million reflects uncertainty and potential volatility in the market, particularly in the private sector and federal government.
Divestiture and Revenue Challenges: The anticipated divestiture of Oxford Analytica and Dragonfly Intelligence indicates a need to streamline operations, but also suggests challenges in maintaining a diverse revenue base.
NOTE FAQs
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NOTE Earning Call Sentiment
FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:NOTE) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
NOTE.N
-4.38%Positive
Despite some positive indicators like improved EBITDA and reduced debt, the overall sentiment is neutral due to lowered revenue guidance, declining net revenue retention, and lack of transparency in the Q&A session. The company's failure to meet ARR expectations and the absence of specific customer adoption metrics add uncertainty. Additionally, while operational efficiencies have improved, ongoing debt management challenges persist. The positive aspects are offset by these concerns, leading to a neutral stock price prediction.
