Buy now for a tactical rebound setup: NIQ is extremely oversold (RSI-6 ~8.9) and trading near the next major support zone (S2 ~11.06), which often precedes sharp mean-reversion bounces.
Options positioning is notably bullish (very low put/call open interest ratio) while implied volatility is elevated, signaling the market is pricing a big move; that skew favors upside if selling pressure exhausts.
Wall Street price targets ($17.5–$23; Baird still $20) sit far above the current ~$11.67, implying substantial upside if execution stabilizes.
Main near-term risk is event-driven: the recent executive departure overhang + upcoming earnings (2026-02-12 pre-market) can keep volatility high; despite that, the current price level is attractive for an impatient buyer looking for a quick snapback rather than a perfect entry.
Trend/momentum: Bearish momentum remains in force (MACD histogram -0.745 and negatively expanding), confirming the selloff is still strong.
Mean-reversion condition: RSI_6 at ~8.876 indicates extreme oversold; this often precedes short, sharp rebounds even if the broader trend is down.
Key levels: Current 11.67 is below S1 (12.615) and close to S2 (11.055). A clean break below ~11.06 would be technically damaging; holding above it increases odds of a bounce.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggests the selloff has compressed price relative to averages; a rebound can be fast if selling pressure fades.
Short-horizon stats from similar patterns: ~60% chance of a small uptick next day (+0.6%), but weaker 1-week expectation (-1.84%) and stronger 1-month expectation (+6.99%), consistent with a volatile rebound attempt after capitulation.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Open interest put/call at 0.07 is strongly call-skewed (bullish positioning / limited put buildup). Volume put/call at 0.53 also leans bullish on the day.
Volatility: 30D IV ~120.37 vs HV ~78.85 and IV percentile ~81.48 => options market is pricing unusually large moves (event risk + uncertainty).
Activity/flow: Today’s volume vs 30D avg ~241.67% and OI vs avg ~160.55% suggests a spike in attention/positioning.
Liquidity note from the snapshot: Absolute volumes/OI are small (calls OI 164; puts OI 11; total volume 29), so ratios can swing quickly—still, skew is clearly tilted toward calls today.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
near support (S2 ~11.
increases probability of a reflex rally.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
No supportive near-term news flow in the last week, so sentiment recovery likely depends on company-driven events (earnings/updates).
Profitability: Net income remains negative (-$198.6M), though slightly improved YoY (+1.12%); the business is still loss-making on this snapshot.
EPS: -0.67 (flat YoY), indicating earnings power hasn’t inflected yet.
Gross margin: 39.79%, +0.63 pts YoY, a modest improvement consistent with operational leverage/efficiency progress.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
2026-02-03 (Baird): Price target cut to $20 from $24; rating stays Outperform. Rationale: surprise executive departure warrants near-term caution.
2025-11-18 (Citi): Price target cut to $17.50 from $21; rating stays Neutral; multiple reduced despite Q3 beat (peer/share pullback impact).
2025-11-14 (Wells Fargo): Price target raised to $23 from $21; rating stays Overweight; cited strong Q3 beat and raised full-year guidance; expects margin expansion via AI efficiencies/operating leverage.
Wall Street pros vs cons view: Pros—fundamental growth + margin expansion narrative and targets far above current price. Cons—leadership uncertainty and multiple compression risk until the company re-establishes confidence (likely around earnings).
Wall Street analysts forecast NIQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NIQ is 21.07 USD with a low forecast of 17.5 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NIQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NIQ is 21.07 USD with a low forecast of 17.5 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 11.540
Low
17.5
Averages
21.07
High
24
Current: 11.540
Low
17.5
Averages
21.07
High
24
Baird
Outperform
downgrade
$24 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
Reason
Baird
Price Target
$24 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Baird lowered the firm's price target on NIQ Global to $20 from $24 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the surprise announcement of the CEO departure which the firm believes warrants caution in the near-term.
Baird
Jeffrey Meuler
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$24 -> $20
2026-02-03
Reason
Baird
Jeffrey Meuler
Price Target
$24 -> $20
2026-02-03
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
As previously reported, Baird analyst Jeffrey Meuler lowered the firm's price target on NIQ Global to $20 from $24 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the "surprise announcement" of COO Tracey Massey's departure, which the firm believes warrants caution in the near-term. This note corrects a prior version to correctly note the executive who departed.
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