Should You Buy Ingevity Corp (NGVT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
65.790
1 Day change
-0.20%
52 Week Range
69.800
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
NGVT is not a good buy right now for an impatient trader. The setup is mixed: longer-term trend support (bullish moving averages) is being undermined by weakening momentum (MACD negative and expanding). With price (~65.92 pre-market) sitting just below the key pivot (66.84) and earnings coming on 2026-02-17, the risk/reward is not compelling for an immediate entry. I would stay on hold unless it quickly reclaims and holds above 66.84–67.00, or flushes closer to support (~64.45) with stabilization.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Pre-market 65.92 is below the Pivot 66.838, between S1 64.454 and R1 69.221. Near-term it’s in a decision zone: a break above pivot favors a push toward 69–71, while a failure risks a retest of 64.45 then 62.98.
Trend: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend is still constructive.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.288 and negatively expanding signals weakening momentum and increasing downside pressure short-term.
RSI: RSI_6 ~43.9 is neutral-to-soft, not yet oversold (no strong “bounce” signal).
Pattern-based probability: Similar-pattern stats imply modest upside next week (+1.71%) but negative bias over the next month (-1.87%), aligning with “choppy/mean-reverting” rather than a clean breakout.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Open interest put/call of 0.32 is call-heavy (bullish positioning/hedging skew). However, reported option volume is 0 today, so there’s no strong real-time confirmation from traders.
Volatility: IV 30d ~45.39 vs historical vol ~59.55, with IV percentile 18 and IV rank 8.78—options are relatively cheap versus their own history, which can support call buying, but it also often appears when the market is not expecting a big immediate move.
Takeaway: Positioning looks optimistic, but the lack of current volume and weakening price momentum make this a weak standalone buy signal.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
suggests a bullish bias among positioned participants.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Momentum risk: MACD is negative and worsening, increasing the odds of a near-term dip toward 64.45/62.98 before any sustainable rally.
Earnings event risk: Next earnings is 2026-02-17 (after hours). For an impatient entry, event timing can cap near-term conviction.
Fundamental pressure: Latest reported quarter shows sharp YoY declines in net income and EPS, indicating earnings power volatility.
Macro/industry uncertainty (per analyst): Wells Fargo cites uncertainty as the company explores alternatives for businesses; auto-market recovery uncertainty has been a prior overhang.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $333.1M, down -0.21% YoY (essentially flat/slightly down).
Profitability: Net income $43.5M and EPS $1.18 both showed very large YoY declines (as reported), indicating materially weaker earnings versus the prior year period.
Margins: Gross margin improved to 40.2% (+1.98% YoY), a positive sign on cost/price mix, but it did not translate into stronger bottom-line results in the quarter.
Overall: Mixed—margin improvement is constructive, but growth and earnings momentum were weak in the latest quarter.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have been rising into early 2026, but ratings are mixed.
- 2025-11-12 (Wells Fargo): PT raised to $55, Equal Weight (cautious; waiting for auto recovery).
- 2025-12-10 (BMO): PT raised to $70, Outperform (positive on portfolio actions, buybacks, debt reduction).
- 2026-01-28 (Wells Fargo): PT raised to $65, kept Equal Weight (still sidelined due to uncertainty while exploring alternatives).
Wall Street pros: Portfolio simplification/divestiture story, potential buybacks and deleveraging, focus on core platforms.
Wall Street cons: Uncertainty around further asset sales/strategy and end-market recovery; earnings volatility as reflected in the latest quarter.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show no significant recent trend (neutral).
Wall Street analysts forecast NGVT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NGVT is 67 USD with a low forecast of 60 USD and a high forecast of 71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NGVT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NGVT is 67 USD with a low forecast of 60 USD and a high forecast of 71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 65.920
Low
60
Averages
67
High
71
Current: 65.920
Low
60
Averages
67
High
71
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight
maintain
$60 -> $65
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$60 -> $65
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Ingevity to $65 from $60 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its estimates for Ingevity to account for the sale of the majority of its Industrial Specialties business, which closed on January 5. Wells stays on the sidelines given uncertainty as Ingevity explores alternatives for other businesses.
BMO Capital
Outperform
maintain
$64 -> $70
2025-12-10
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$64 -> $70
2025-12-10
maintain
Outperform
Reason
BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Ingevity to $70 from $64 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Following its portfolio review, the company announced that it is looking to sell both the APT and road markings businesses while continuing to focus on growing the two core platforms in the activated carbon Performance Materials segment and the Paving Tech platform, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With the proceeds and significant free cash flow, the management will reduce debt as well as return 15% to shareholders in the form of buybacks over the next two years, the firm notes.
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