NAVI Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how NAVI performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NAVI sees a -0.92% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -2.67% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.43%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
NAVI Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
970.00M
-15.28%
-2.51%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
6.19%
394.76%
-220.66%
Net Margin
2.47%
200.82%
-1335.00%
EPS
0.22
191.67%
-1200.00%
No Data Available
NAVI Earnings Analysis
Navient Corp Corporation (NAVI.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Loan Origination Growth: Consumer lending business generated strong loan origination growth with refi volume exceeding $1 billion, a 60% increase from the prior year, and in-school volume growing by 13%.
Loan Origination Growth Plan: Navient plans to increase loan origination volume by 30% in 2025, with significant growth expected in the second half of the year based on current interest rate trends.
Cost Reduction Savings: Cost reductions achieved through the divestment of non-core businesses are projected to yield approximately $120 million in annual savings, representing nearly 40% of shared costs and overhead.
Shareholder Returns and Equity Ratio: Share repurchases totaled $65 million in Q4, with a total of $249 million returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends over the year, while the adjusted tangible equity ratio increased to 10% from 8.2% year-over-year.
Core Earnings Guidance 2025: The company anticipates a full-year core earnings guidance of $1 to $1.20 per share for 2025, reflecting a transition to a more streamlined and efficient operational model.
Negative
Earnings Decline Analysis: 4th quarter GAAP earnings per share were $0.22, while core earnings showed a loss per share of $0.24, indicating a significant decline in profitability.
Net Interest Margin Decline: The net interest margin for the Federal Education Loan segment decreased to 43 basis points, down 3 basis points from the previous quarter, reflecting pressure on earnings.
Delinquency Rate Increase: Greater than 90-day delinquency rates increased to 8.7%, signaling worsening credit quality in the loan portfolio.
Q4 Loss Impact: A loss of $28 million was recognized in the 4th quarter due to the reclassification of the government services business as held for sale, impacting overall financial performance.
Loan Loss Allowance Increase: The allowance for loan loss increased to $800 million, driven by reduced collections for private education loans, indicating potential future losses.
NAVI FAQs
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NAVI Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Navient Q4 2024 earnings miss forecasts, stock dips
NAVI.O
-0.73%Positive
The earnings call presents mixed results: strong share repurchases and loan origination growth are positive, but high costs and unclear management responses create uncertainty. The market cap suggests moderate volatility. The EPS miss and cautious guidance, combined with potential policy changes, weigh down the positive sentiment from divestments and cash reserves. Overall, the stock price is likely to remain stable, with minor fluctuations.