AAOI Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AAOI performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AAOI sees a +4.05% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +12.00% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.28%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AAOI Key Earning Data
AAOI Earnings Analysis
Positive
Revenue Guidance Met: Revenue of $100 million in Q4 2024 was in line with guidance of $94 million to $104 million.
Gross Margin Performance: Non-GAAP gross margin of 28.9% was achieved, consistent with guidance of 27.5% to 29.5%.
Non-GAAP Loss Guidance: Non-GAAP loss per share of $0.02 was within the guidance range of a loss of $0.04 to earnings of $0.04 per share.
400G Product Revenue Surge: 400G product revenue increased 40% year-over-year and 70% sequentially, driven by increased adoption from datacenter customers.
CATV Revenue Surge: CATV segment revenue of $52.2 million increased more than 4x year-over-year and more than doubled sequentially, largely due to 1.8 GHz amplifier shipments.
Major Order for Networking Products: Received a substantial order for Quantum Bandwidth networking products from a top North American cable operator, with shipments beginning this month.
800G Product Demand Forecast: Continued progress on 800G products with clear demand forecasts indicating ramping demand beginning in the second half of 2025.
Production Capacity Expansion: Expansion of production capabilities with retrofitting of the Sugar Land facility and leasing an additional building in Taiwan to increase production.
Q4 Revenue Surge: Total revenue for Q4 was up 66% year-over-year and up 54% sequentially, with 44% from data center products and 52% from CATV products.
Operating Expenses Efficiency Improvement: Non-GAAP operating expenses decreased as a percentage of revenue, reflecting improved efficiency and increased R&D spending in key areas.
Improved Liquidity Position: Total cash and equivalents increased to $79.1 million from $41.4 million at the end of Q3 2024, indicating improved liquidity.
Capital Investment Funding: Raised $53.9 million net from an at-the-market program, supporting capital investments for production expansion.
Capital Expenditures Forecast: Expecting significant capital expenditures between $120 million and $150 million in 2025 to support growth in 400G, 800G, and 1.6 terabit datacenter products.
Negative
Decline in Non-GAAP Earnings: Non-GAAP loss per share of $0.02, which is a decline from a non-GAAP net income of $1.6 million or $0.04 per share in Q4 of the prior year.
Quarterly Net Loss Comparison: GAAP net loss for Q4 was $119.7 million or a loss of $2.60 per basic share, compared to a GAAP net loss of $13.9 million or a loss of $0.38 per basic share in Q4 of 2023.
Debt Increase Analysis: Total debt, excluding convertible debt, increased to $46 million from $39.4 million at the end of the previous quarter.
Inventory Increase Analysis: Inventory increased to $88.1 million from $64.4 million at the end of Q3, indicating potential overstock or slower sales.
Operating Loss Comparison: Non-GAAP operating loss in Q4 was $2.5 million compared to an operating income of $0.4 million in Q4 of the prior year.
Operating Expenses Increase: Non-GAAP operating expenses increased to $31.5 million or 31.4% of revenue, compared to $21.6 million or 35.7% of revenue in Q4 of the prior year, indicating rising costs.
Non-GAAP Net Income Outlook: Expectations for non-GAAP net income in Q1 range from a loss of $3.6 million to breakeven, indicating continued financial challenges.
AAOI FAQs
How does AAOI typically perform around its earnings report dates?
AAOI's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a +4.05% change leading up to the report and a +12.00% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
AAOI Earning Call Sentiment
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

AAOI.O
-15.82%