The chart below shows how AAOI performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AAOI sees a +4.05% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +12.00% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.28%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Revenue Guidance Met: Revenue of $100 million in Q4 2024 was in line with guidance of $94 million to $104 million.
Gross Margin Performance: Non-GAAP gross margin of 28.9% was achieved, consistent with guidance of 27.5% to 29.5%.
Non-GAAP Loss Guidance: Non-GAAP loss per share of $0.02 was within the guidance range of a loss of $0.04 to earnings of $0.04 per share.
400G Product Revenue Surge: 400G product revenue increased 40% year-over-year and 70% sequentially, driven by increased adoption from datacenter customers.
CATV Revenue Surge: CATV segment revenue of $52.2 million increased more than 4x year-over-year and more than doubled sequentially, largely due to 1.8 GHz amplifier shipments.
Major Order for Networking Products: Received a substantial order for Quantum Bandwidth networking products from a top North American cable operator, with shipments beginning this month.
800G Product Demand Forecast: Continued progress on 800G products with clear demand forecasts indicating ramping demand beginning in the second half of 2025.
Production Capacity Expansion: Expansion of production capabilities with retrofitting of the Sugar Land facility and leasing an additional building in Taiwan to increase production.
Q4 Revenue Surge: Total revenue for Q4 was up 66% year-over-year and up 54% sequentially, with 44% from data center products and 52% from CATV products.
Operating Expenses Efficiency Improvement: Non-GAAP operating expenses decreased as a percentage of revenue, reflecting improved efficiency and increased R&D spending in key areas.
Improved Liquidity Position: Total cash and equivalents increased to $79.1 million from $41.4 million at the end of Q3 2024, indicating improved liquidity.
Capital Investment Funding: Raised $53.9 million net from an at-the-market program, supporting capital investments for production expansion.
Capital Expenditures Forecast: Expecting significant capital expenditures between $120 million and $150 million in 2025 to support growth in 400G, 800G, and 1.6 terabit datacenter products.
Negative
Decline in Non-GAAP Earnings: Non-GAAP loss per share of $0.02, which is a decline from a non-GAAP net income of $1.6 million or $0.04 per share in Q4 of the prior year.
Quarterly Net Loss Comparison: GAAP net loss for Q4 was $119.7 million or a loss of $2.60 per basic share, compared to a GAAP net loss of $13.9 million or a loss of $0.38 per basic share in Q4 of 2023.
Debt Increase Analysis: Total debt, excluding convertible debt, increased to $46 million from $39.4 million at the end of the previous quarter.
Inventory Increase Analysis: Inventory increased to $88.1 million from $64.4 million at the end of Q3, indicating potential overstock or slower sales.
Operating Loss Comparison: Non-GAAP operating loss in Q4 was $2.5 million compared to an operating income of $0.4 million in Q4 of the prior year.
Operating Expenses Increase: Non-GAAP operating expenses increased to $31.5 million or 31.4% of revenue, compared to $21.6 million or 35.7% of revenue in Q4 of the prior year, indicating rising costs.
Non-GAAP Net Income Outlook: Expectations for non-GAAP net income in Q1 range from a loss of $3.6 million to breakeven, indicating continued financial challenges.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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