Should You Buy Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Sell
Latest Price
12.930
1 Day change
1.81%
52 Week Range
14.320
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
MTW is not a good buy right now. At ~$12.93 pre-market, the stock is trading well above the lone active Street price target ($10) and is showing weakening technical momentum with bearish short-term options flow. For an impatient buyer who doesn’t want to wait for a cleaner setup, the risk/reward is unfavorable today—my call is to avoid new buys and sell/reduce exposure if already held.
Technical Analysis
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
**Trend/Momentum**: Momentum is tilting bearish. MACD histogram is negative (-0.137) and expanding to the downside, which typically signals increasing bearish momentum. RSI(6) at ~39.5 is weak (not deeply oversold), suggesting the stock can still drift lower before a mean-reversion bid becomes compelling. Moving averages are converging, implying a lack of strong trend support and potential for a breakdown/whipsaw.
**Key levels**: Pivot 13.348 is overhead resistance; price below pivot keeps the near-term bias bearish. Nearest support is S1 12.768 (just below current), then S2 12.409. Upside resistance sits at 13.929 (R1). With price sitting close to support, a small downtick can trigger a quick slide toward 12.41.
**Pattern-based odds**: The comparable-pattern projection points to a mild next-day move but negative near-term drift (approx. -2.9% next week), reinforcing the weak setup going into earnings.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
**Sentiment read**: Open interest put/call of 0.26 suggests positioning is call-heavy (structurally more bullish positioning). However, the *volume* put/call of 10.4 is sharply bearish for the day’s flow, meaning traders are actively buying/using puts now (often hedging or outright bearish speculation). With today’s volume vs 30D average elevated (~107%), the bearish flow is more meaningful than a quiet day.
**Volatility context**: IV is very low (IV percentile ~2.8; IV rank ~1.2) versus historical vol (~56.8), implying options are priced cheaply relative to realized movement—useful for hedging, but it also often occurs when the market is complacent ahead of catalysts (next earnings on 2026-02-11). Net: options tape leans bearish short-term despite call-heavy longer positioning.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
- Sector backdrop (per Wells Fargo commentary): improving machinery cycle indicators (broadening recovery, improving cash conversion) could provide intermittent support.
- Gross margin improved in 2025/Q3 (18.41%, up YoY), which can become a narrative if the company shows operational stabilization.
- Low implied volatility (very low IV percentile) can amplify moves on any unexpectedly strong earnings update (2026-02-11 after hours).
materially below the current price, implying downside in the Street’s base case.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $553.4M (+5.45% YoY), and gross margin improved to 18.41% (+11.17% YoY), which is a constructive operational datapoint. However, profitability fell sharply: net income was $5.0M (-171.43% YoY) and EPS was $0.14 (-170.00% YoY). Net/net: top-line is growing and margins improved, but bottom-line performance deteriorated materially, which weakens confidence for an immediate buy ahead of the next earnings catalyst.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Wells Fargo initiated (2025-11-13) at Underweight with a $9 target, then modestly raised the target to $10 (2026-01-23) while maintaining Underweight. That’s a slight upward adjustment, but the core view remains bearish due to competitive pricing pressure, limited distribution value, and longer-term market share concerns.
Wall Street pros: improving macro/industry indicators and cash conversion tailwinds.
Wall Street cons: structurally challenging margin expansion and competitive dynamics. With MTW at ~12.93 versus a $10 target, the risk/reward aligns more with downside than upside from the Street’s perspective.
Wall Street analysts forecast MTW stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTW is 9.5 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MTW stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTW is 9.5 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 12.700
Low
9
Averages
9.5
High
10
Current: 12.700
Low
9
Averages
9.5
High
10
Wells Fargo
Underweight
maintain
$9 -> $10
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$9 -> $10
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
maintain
Underweight
Reason
Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Manitowoc to $10 from $9 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm reiterates its positive outlook for the Machinery, Industrials & Environmental Services space heading into earnings. Wells argues the Machinery supply-driven recovery is broadening to new equipment, non-residential lead indicators are accelerating, and cash conversion is improving.
Wells Fargo
Jerry Revich
Underweight
initiated
$9
2025-11-13
Reason
Wells Fargo
Jerry Revich
Price Target
$9
2025-11-13
initiated
Underweight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich initiated coverage of Manitowoc with an Underweight rating and $9 price target. Intense crane industry pricing competition with limited distribution value due to low parts consumption, along with longer-term market share deterioration, adds up to a "challenging margin expansion environment," the analyst tells investors.
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