MTW

Market Performance: The S&P 500 is down -0.06%, while the Nasdaq 100 is up +0.11%, as mixed trading follows a recovery in major tech stocks and rising energy prices, despite concerns over a hawkish Fed and weak economic data from China.

Federal Reserve Outlook: The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December has decreased to 48% from 70% due to hawkish comments from Fed officials, raising concerns about inflation and economic resilience.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Stocks: Bitcoin has fallen over -2% to a 6.25-month low, continuing a five-week sell-off, which has negatively impacted cryptocurrency-related stocks, with significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.

Corporate Earnings and Economic Data: Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies have exceeded forecasts, with a 14.6% increase, while the government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic reports, impacting market sentiment.

US Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices experienced declines of 0.90%, 1.06%, and 1.17% respectively, driven by concerns over a potential hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and weak economic data from China.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation: The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December has decreased to 51% from 70% due to Fed officials expressing skepticism about the need for further cuts, amidst a resilient economy and inflation uncertainties.

Impact of Government Shutdown: The recent government shutdown is projected to have reduced real GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points, although recovery is expected as federal programs resume and back pay is issued to government employees.

Corporate Earnings and Stock Movements: Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies rose 14.6%, surpassing expectations, while several tech and cryptocurrency-related stocks faced significant declines, with notable movements in companies like Applied Materials and Stubhub Holdings.