Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate a positive outlook. Despite flat revenue growth, strong EBITDA and strategic initiatives like Project Aurora and Hinge's international expansion are promising. The company's focus on AI innovations, improved user engagement, and a balanced investment strategy in product improvements and shareholder returns further support a positive sentiment. The Q&A reveals management's confidence in overcoming challenges, and the optimistic guidance for Q4 2025 suggests potential stock price gains.
Key Financial Performance
Free Cash Flow Generated over $1 billion in free cash flow in 2025, which was returned to shareholders through nearly $800 million of share buybacks and nearly $200 million in dividends, reducing diluted shares outstanding by 7% year-over-year.
Total Revenue (Q4 2025) $878 million, up 2% year-over-year and flat on a foreign exchange neutral basis. Payers declined 5% to 13.8 million while RPP increased 7% to $20.72.
Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 2025) $370 million, up 14% year-over-year, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 42%. Excluding an $8 million gain on the sale of an L.A. office building and $2 million of restructuring costs, adjusted EBITDA margin would have been 41%.
Tinder Direct Revenue (Q4 2025) $464 million, down 3% year-over-year, down 5% FXN. Payers declined 8% to 8.8 million and RPP grew 5% to $17.63.
Hinge Direct Revenue (Q4 2025) $186 million, up 26% year-over-year, up 24% FXN. Payers were up 17% to 1.9 million and RPP grew 8% to $32.96.
E&E Direct Revenue (Q4 2025) $145 million, down 7% year-over-year, down 9% FXN. Payers were down 14% to 2.1 million and RPP grew 8% to $22.53.
Match Group Asia Direct Revenue (Q4 2025) $66 million, down 2% year-over-year, down 1% FXN. Payers increased 3% to 1 million, while RPP declined 5% to $20.91.
Total Revenue (Full Year 2025) $3.5 billion, flat year-over-year both as reported and FXN.
Adjusted EBITDA (Full Year 2025) $1.2 billion, down 1% year-over-year, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35%. Excluding legal settlements, restructuring costs, and the sale of an L.A. office building, adjusted EBITDA margin would have been 38%.
Tinder Direct Revenue (Full Year 2025) $1.9 billion, down 4% year-over-year, down 5% FXN. Adjusted EBITDA was $941 million, down 7%, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 49%. Excluding legal settlement and restructuring costs, adjusted EBITDA margin would have been 52%.
Hinge Direct Revenue (Full Year 2025) $691 million, up 26% year-over-year, up 25% FXN. Adjusted EBITDA was $226 million, up 36%, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33%.
E&E Direct Revenue (Full Year 2025) $594 million, down 8% year-over-year, down 9% FXN. Adjusted EBITDA was $140 million, down 18%, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23%. Excluding legal settlement and restructuring costs, adjusted EBITDA margin would have been 26%.
Match Group Asia Direct Revenue (Full Year 2025) $267 million, down 6% year-over-year, down 5% FXN. Excluding the exit of live streaming businesses, direct revenue would have been flat year-over-year, up 1% FXN. Adjusted EBITDA was $66 million, up 9%, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25%.
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Operating Highlights
Tinder product updates: AI-driven recommendation algorithms tested to improve user experience, particularly for women. Project Aurora in Australia showed improved metrics like Sparks and Spark coverage. Upcoming product event in March 2026 to showcase feature updates and AI-driven innovations.
Hinge product updates: Testing features like Direct to Date and AI-driven Convo Starters to enhance user experience. Face Check feature rollout to improve safety. Strong focus on meaningful relationships and user outcomes.
Hinge European expansion: Hinge expanded to 12 European countries, ending 2025 with over 3.3 million MAU, up from 200,000 at launch. Revenue in European markets expected to exceed $100 million in 2026.
Hinge Latin America and APAC expansion: Launched in Mexico and Brazil in 2025, with plans to expand to Argentina, Chile, Peru, and India in 2026. India already has over 1 million MAU, growing 40% year-over-year without marketing spend.
Cost efficiency and reinvestment: Savings from workforce reductions and alternative payments reinvested into Tinder and Hinge for product and marketing improvements.
Revenue and EBITDA performance: Match Group achieved $3.5 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Free cash flow exceeded $1 billion, with significant shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends.
Portfolio positioning: Introduced a framework to position brands based on user needs, ranging from fun (Tinder) to focus (Hinge) and familiarity (affinity brands).
AI and innovation focus: Doubling down on AI to improve relevance, matching, and safety, aiming to enhance user outcomes and long-term growth.
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Risk or Challenges
Tinder Revenue Decline: Tinder's year-over-year direct revenue is expected to decline in 2026, similar to 2025, due to product changes aimed at improving user outcomes, which involve short-term revenue trade-offs.
Headwinds in Evergreen & Emerging (E&E) and MG Asia: E&E and MG Asia segments continue to face headwinds, impacting their revenue growth and overall performance.
User Experience Tests Impact: Tinder's user experience tests negatively impacted direct revenue by $6 million in Q4 2025, though the impact was smaller than expected.
Regulatory and Litigation Risks: Potential changes in app store fees due to evolving litigation and regulatory changes, such as the Epic Games vs. Apple case, could impact financial performance.
Marketing Spend Increase: Tinder plans to increase marketing spend by $50 million in 2026, which could pressure adjusted EBITDA margins despite alternative payment savings.
Azar's Block in Turkey: Azar, part of Match Group Asia, continues to face challenges due to its block in Turkey, affecting its revenue.
Economic and Currency Risks: Foreign exchange fluctuations and economic conditions are impacting revenue growth, particularly in Match Group Asia and E&E segments.
Short-Term Revenue Trade-Offs: The company is making short-term revenue trade-offs to focus on long-term sustainable growth, particularly at Tinder.
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Guidance & Outlook
Tinder Revenue Expectations: In 2026, Tinder's year-over-year direct revenue declines are expected to be similar to 2025 due to ongoing product changes aimed at improving user outcomes and driving long-term sustainable growth, despite short-term revenue trade-offs.
Hinge Revenue Growth: Hinge is expected to continue strong direct revenue growth in the low to mid-20% range in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid- to high-30% range. Hinge remains on track to achieve $1 billion in revenue by 2027.
Match Group Total Revenue: Match Group's total revenue is expected to remain relatively flat year-over-year in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA margins broadly in line with 2025, excluding discrete items.
Tinder Product Roadmap: Tinder's 2026 product roadmap focuses on addressing Gen Z pain points, including improving relevance and match quality, strengthening verification and safety, and redesigning discovery to reduce dating fatigue. The goal is to reestablish Tinder as a sustainable growth business by 2027.
Hinge Expansion Plans: Hinge plans to expand into three additional Latin American markets (Argentina, Chile, and Peru) and its first APAC market (India) in 2026, building on its strong growth in existing markets.
Face Check Rollout: Tinder and Hinge will roll out the Face Check feature globally in 2026, aiming to improve user safety and trust. This rollout is expected to have a minimal impact on revenue.
Marketing Investments: Match Group plans to increase Tinder's marketing spend by $50 million in 2026 to support product turnaround and user growth efforts.
Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: Match Group expects free cash flow of $1.085 billion to $1.135 billion in 2026, with plans to use 100% of free cash flow for buybacks, dividends, and reducing share dilution.
Hinge Revenue in European Markets: Hinge is expected to deliver over $100 million in direct revenue in its European expansion markets in 2026, with significant growth potential ahead.
Match Group Asia Revenue: Match Group Asia's direct revenue is expected to decline in the high single digits in 2026, reflecting challenges such as Azar's ongoing block in Turkey and the rollout of new user verification technology.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Dividends Paid in 2025: Nearly $200 million in dividends were paid to shareholders in 2025.
Quarterly Dividend Increase: The Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.20 per share, representing a 5% increase from the prior quarterly dividend.
Future Dividend Plans: The dividend is expected to be paid on a quarterly basis going forward, subject to Board approval.
Share Buybacks in 2025: Match Group repurchased 24.7 million shares at an average price of $32 per share, totaling $789 million.
Reduction in Diluted Shares Outstanding: Diluted shares outstanding were reduced by 7% year-over-year as of January 31, 2026.
Future Share Buyback Plans: The company plans to continue using 100% of free cash flow for buybacks, dividends, and net share settlement of employee equity awards over time.
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Key Q&A
Q:Can you share details about the early learnings from Project Aurora and its impact on Tinder's performance?
A:Project Aurora focused on Australia in Q4, implementing product improvements and marketing strategies. Key results include a reduction in year-over-year declines for Sparks and MAU, with female MAU improving more significantly. Double date usage increased, with 10% of Australian users adopting it. Some aspects, like Face Check, are being rolled out globally, while others, like Chemistry, remain Australia-specific. Marketing strategies are shifting towards performance marketing globally based on Aurora's learnings.
Q:How do Q4 registration improvements connect to MAU and Sparks growth?
A:Q4 registration improvements, moving from -12% in Q2 to -5% in Q4, are linked to product-driven changes impacting the bottom of the funnel (Sparks). Improvements in recommendation algorithms, app performance, and design have enhanced user experience, leading to better Sparks and gradual MAU growth. Convincing users to reconsider Tinder is a longer-term challenge.
Q:What is driving engagement improvements in 15 countries, and how has it trended?
A:Engagement improved by 2 points in countries representing 1/3 of MAU, including South Korea, Japan, and Australia. Key drivers include recommendation algorithm improvements, double date, Face Check, and marketing. For example, South Korea's MAU shifted from -8% to +2% year-over-year. Revenue trade-offs, like Face Check, have been optimized to balance user benefits and revenue impact.
Q:How is Tinder measuring relevance for women, and what are the outcomes?
A:Tinder measures relevance through retention, Spark Coverage, and user satisfaction by demographics. Double date has been particularly appealing to Gen Z women, with 48% citing it as a unique reason to use Tinder. Female MAU in Australia grew more than total MAU, driven by double date, recommendation improvements, and marketing.
Q:What is the expected timeline for Hinge's monetization in new markets like Mexico and Brazil?
A:Hinge's monetization in new markets takes time, as seen in Europe. It focuses on building liquidity and optimizing monetization over years. In Latin America, Hinge is not expected to significantly contribute to revenue in 2026 or 2027. Early learnings from Mexico and Brazil are being applied to future launches.
Q:What are the main sources of new registrations for Tinder, and what are the learnings from Chemistry?
A:New registrations are driven by marketing, double date invitations, and organic social media buzz. Chemistry, an AI-driven feature, addresses swipe fatigue by offering single drops and integrating camera roll insights. It aims to enhance user experience and engagement, with a long-term roadmap for further integration.
Q:What are the key takeaways from the leadership transition at Hinge and the creation of Overtone?
A:Hinge's leadership transition was seamless, with Jackie stepping in as CEO. The portfolio strategy work clarified brand roles, highlighting Hinge's potential in the focus segment. Hinge's global expansion is progressing well, with significant monetization potential. Overtone and other incubated ideas are being tested for portfolio expansion.
Q:What are the key factors influencing Match Group's 2026 revenue guidance?
A:2026 revenue guidance reflects a flat growth expectation due to headwinds from E&E in Asia, Tinder user testing ($60M budget), and Face Check rollout. Hinge's performance is strong, while Tinder's revenue decline is attributed to these investments. The company is balancing these with buybacks and dividends.
Q:How is Match Group balancing investments in product improvements and shareholder returns?
A:Match Group is increasing Tinder's marketing budget, funding Hinge's expansion, and maintaining buybacks and dividends. The company is investing in user givebacks and product improvements while ensuring profitability and shareholder value. This balance supports long-term growth and free cash flow per share.
Q:What are the early learnings from Project Prism, and how is it shaping marketing strategy?
A:Project Prism, a Match Group-wide marketing efficacy analysis, highlighted the benefits of down-funnel advertising for Tinder. It informed the increased marketing spend and improved coordination across brands. Insights are being applied to optimize marketing strategies and drive user acquisition.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing specific data on female retention and relevance metrics, citing a lack of immediate access to such information. Additionally, details on the second incubated idea and further specifics on Chemistry's long-term roadmap were not disclosed.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Apple payment
Directors
EE
Emerging
FXN margin
Gen
Hinge FXN
Hinge market
LA office
RPP margin
Spark coverage
Sparks Spark
app store
confidence turnaround
detail
dilution cash
effort payment
employee equity
equity award
experience test
indicator
intent
market Hinge
mid
office building
payment saving
percent
period
phase
point headwind
product road
relevance
road map
rollout
sale LA
settlement
spend Hinge
user need
MTCH Transcript
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive2-3
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate a positive outlook. Despite flat revenue growth, strong EBITDA and strategic initiatives like Project Aurora and Hinge's international expansion are promising. The company's focus on AI innovations, improved user engagement, and a balanced investment strategy in product improvements and shareholder returns further support a positive sentiment. The Q&A reveals management's confidence in overcoming challenges, and the optimistic guidance for Q4 2025 suggests potential stock price gains.
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Presents at Barclays 23rd Annual Global Technology Conference Transcript
Neutral12-11
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Presents at Raymond James TMT & Consumer Conference Transcript
Neutral12-8
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown11-4
The earnings call presents mixed signals: while there are positive developments in product innovation and international expansion, concerns about declining MAUs, a negative revenue headwind in Q4, and vague guidance on future profitability create uncertainties. The positive impact of cost-saving measures and strategic marketing efforts is offset by the lack of clear timelines for user growth recovery and profitability. Given these factors, the overall sentiment is neutral, as the potential upside from strategic initiatives is balanced by the current challenges and uncertainties.
MTCH Slides
MTCH Report
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