Should You Buy Midland States Bancorp Inc (MSBI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
22.790
1 Day change
-0.04%
52 Week Range
24.570
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
MSBI is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is sitting just below a key pivot (23.107) with weakening momentum (negative, expanding MACD), options positioning skewed defensively (put-heavy open interest), and the latest quarter showed an earnings miss plus very weak revenue trends. A better tactical buy would be after a clean move back above ~23.10 with momentum improving, or closer to support near ~22.04 if it holds.
Technical Analysis
Price (pre-market 22.8) is slightly below the pivot level at 23.107, implying the market is still trying to reclaim a key decision zone. Trend structure is constructive because moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but momentum is currently deteriorating: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0809) and expanding lower, which often precedes more downside chop before a sustained push higher. RSI(6) ~50.4 is neutral (no immediate oversold bounce signal). Near-term levels: support S1 22.037 then S2 21.376; resistance R1 24.177 then R2 24.838. With the S&P500 down pre-market (-0.85%), the tape is a headwind for small-cap/regional bank risk-taking today.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest is put-skewed (put/call OI 1.48: 89 puts vs 60 calls), suggesting more downside hedging or cautious positioning than bullish speculation. However, today’s options trading activity is extremely light (total volume 5; put volume 0), so sentiment is based more on positioning than active betting. Implied vol (30D ~42.96) is moderate with a relatively low IV rank (16.14), implying options are not pricing a major imminent shock, but the positioning still reads cautious.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Q4 provision for credit losses fell to $11.8M from $20.5M in Q3 (improving credit-cost trajectory). Nonperforming assets/total assets stayed stable at 1.02% (asset quality not worsening). Analysts generally raised price targets recently after Q4 and the equipment finance portfolio sale strategy, implying expectations for a cleaner 2026 setup. No notable hedge fund/insider selling pressure reported (both neutral).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Q4 non-GAAP EPS missed expectations by $0.11, and revenue was down 8.9% YoY per the news summary. The provided financial snapshot for 2025/Q4 shows revenue down sharply (-39.78% YoY) and profitability still negative (net income -$5.116M; EPS -$0.24), which undermines the near-term fundamental bid. Technical momentum is weakening (negative and falling MACD histogram) while price is below the pivot, increasing the chance of a retest of support (~22.04/21.38). Options open interest is put-skewed (defensive).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Reported trends are mixed to negative: revenue dropped to 51.623M (-39.78% YoY) while net income improved but remained negative (-5.116M, up 56.60% YoY), and EPS improved but remained negative (-0.24, up 60% YoY). Separately, the news summary highlights Q4 revenue down 8.9% YoY and an EPS miss, but also a notable sequential decline in provision expense (credit costs improving). Overall: improving credit costs, but growth/profitability are still not strong enough to justify chasing the stock immediately.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street stance is cautious-neutral. Multiple firms (DA Davidson, Piper Sandler) reiterated Neutral and Keefe Bruyette reiterated Market Perform, while price targets were raised into the $22–$25.50 range after Q4 and portfolio actions. Wall Street pros: credit-cost step-down potential in 2026, de-risking via equipment finance portfolio sale, improved credit culture. Cons: repeated disappointments on credit costs historically, recent earnings miss, and weak revenue/profitability trends. Politician/congress activity: no recent congress trading data available; influential/political buying/selling not indicated in the provided dataset.
Wall Street analysts forecast MSBI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSBI is 19 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 19 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MSBI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSBI is 19 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 19 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 22.800
Low
19
Averages
19
High
19
Current: 22.800
Low
19
Averages
19
High
19
DA Davidson
Neutral
maintain
$23 -> $24
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$23 -> $24
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
DA Davidson raised the firm's price target on Midland States to $24 from $23 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after its Q4 results. Earnings missed estimates, but efforts to return the franchise to a core community banking organization with more consistency and credit stability carry the promise of a cleaner 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
maintain
$19 -> $22
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$19 -> $22
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Midland States to $22 from $19 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
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