MRNA Valuation

Moderna Inc

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24.330

+0.77(3.268%)1D

MRNA Relative Valuation

MRNA's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, MRNA is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Moderna Inc (MRNA) is now in the Overvalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 23.56 is considered Overvalued compared with the five-year average of -1.24. The fair price of Moderna Inc (MRNA) is between 13.99 to 19.09 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 24.04 USD , Moderna Inc is Overvalued By 25.88%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

13.99-19.09

Current Price：24.04

25.88%

Overvalued

-2.32

Trailing

Forward

-0.85

EV/EBITDA

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current EV/EBITDA of -0.85. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is -1.81. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -21.52, Undervalued between -21.52 and -11.67, Fairly Valued between 8.04 and -11.67, Overvalued between 8.04 and 17.89, and Strongly Overvalued above 17.89. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of -0.85 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-0.72

EV/EBIT

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current EV/EBIT of -0.72. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is -0.73. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -18.09, Undervalued between -18.09 and -9.41, Fairly Valued between 7.94 and -9.41, Overvalued between 7.94 and 16.62, and Strongly Overvalued above 16.62. The current Forward EV/EBIT of -0.72 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

23.56

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current PS of 23.56. The 5-year average PS is 6.36. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.10, Undervalued between 0.10 and 3.23, Fairly Valued between 9.48 and 3.23, Overvalued between 9.48 and 12.61, and Strongly Overvalued above 12.61. The current Forward PS of 23.56 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

-3.71

P/OCF

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current P/OCF of -3.71. The 5-year average P/OCF is -3.21. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -32.40, Undervalued between -32.40 and -17.80, Fairly Valued between 11.39 and -17.80, Overvalued between 11.39 and 25.98, and Strongly Overvalued above 25.98. The current Forward P/OCF of -3.71 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-3.21

P/FCF

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current P/FCF of -3.21. The 5-year average P/FCF is -1.97. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -32.18, Undervalued between -32.18 and -17.08, Fairly Valued between 13.13 and -17.08, Overvalued between 13.13 and 28.24, and Strongly Overvalued above 28.24. The current Forward P/FCF of -3.21 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Moderna Inc (MRNA) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 2.36 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -58.76% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 6.34, the current P/B ratio is about -84.61% higher. Moderna Inc (MRNA) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately -0.35%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of -13.29%, the current FCF yield is approximately -97.34% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of -3.34% , the current FCF yield is about -89.40% lower.

0.98

P/B

Median3y

2.36

Median5y

6.34

-0.35

FCF Yield

Median3y

-13.29

Median5y

-3.34

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for MRNA's competitors is 48.39, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Moderna Inc Corp (MRNA) exhibits a P/S ratio of 23.56, which is -51.32% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -41.08%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc

Elanco Animal Health Inc

Avidity Biosciences Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of MRNA decreased by 45.29% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an decrease in P/E Change from 0.00 to -3.13.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed -97.69%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of MRNA in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

-97.69%

1.86B → 43.00M

Revenue Growth

-66545.71%

0.70 → -465.12

Margin Expansion

66598.11%

0.00 → -3.13

P/E Change

-45.29%