MRNA Valuation

Moderna Inc

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34.280

+0.13(0.381%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

MRNA Relative Valuation

MRNA's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, MRNA is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Moderna Inc (MRNA) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 6.30 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of -34.22. The fair price of Moderna Inc (MRNA) is between 22.84 to 55.40 according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

22.84-55.40

Current Price：34.15

Fair

-3.36

Trailing

Forward

-1.49

EV/EBITDA

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current EV/EBITDA of -1.49. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 4.34. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -62.56, Undervalued between -62.56 and -29.11, Fairly Valued between 37.79 and -29.11, Overvalued between 37.79 and 71.24, and Strongly Overvalued above 71.24. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of -1.49 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-1.33

EV/EBIT

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current EV/EBIT of -1.33. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is -2.21. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -26.36, Undervalued between -26.36 and -14.29, Fairly Valued between 9.86 and -14.29, Overvalued between 9.86 and 21.93, and Strongly Overvalued above 21.93. The current Forward EV/EBIT of -1.33 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

6.30

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current PS of 6.30. The 5-year average PS is 6.68. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -0.72, Undervalued between -0.72 and 2.98, Fairly Valued between 10.39 and 2.98, Overvalued between 10.39 and 14.09, and Strongly Overvalued above 14.09. The current Forward PS of 6.30 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-4.30

P/OCF

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current P/OCF of -4.30. The 5-year average P/OCF is 196.02. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -1890.59, Undervalued between -1890.59 and -847.29, Fairly Valued between 1239.32 and -847.29, Overvalued between 1239.32 and 2282.63, and Strongly Overvalued above 2282.63. The current Forward P/OCF of -4.30 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-3.80

P/FCF

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) has a current P/FCF of -3.80. The 5-year average P/FCF is 7.93. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -97.34, Undervalued between -97.34 and -44.71, Fairly Valued between 60.56 and -44.71, Overvalued between 60.56 and 113.19, and Strongly Overvalued above 113.19. The current Forward P/FCF of -3.80 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Moderna Inc (MRNA) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.31. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 2.55 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -48.56% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 6.82, the current P/B ratio is about -80.75% higher. Moderna Inc (MRNA) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately -30.47%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of -8.86%, the current FCF yield is approximately 243.78% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of -1.52% , the current FCF yield is about 1907.86% lower.

1.31

P/B

Median3y

2.55

Median5y

6.82

-30.47

FCF Yield

Median3y

-8.86

Median5y

-1.52

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for MRNA's competitors is 7.19, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Moderna Inc Corp (MRNA) exhibits a P/S ratio of 6.30, which is -12.37% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -35.33%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc

Elanco Animal Health Inc

1.58

-1.00%

7.41B

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of MRNA decreased by 71.36% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an decrease in Margin Expansion from -703.59 to -899.07.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed -35.33%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of MRNA in the past 1 year is driven by Margin Expansion. Which is more sustainable.

-35.33%

167.00M → 108.00M

Revenue Growth

27.78%

-703.59 → -899.07

Margin Expansion

-63.81%

-10.81 → -3.91

P/E Change

-71.36%