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MRNA Earnings

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Earning Analysis

Welcome to our in-depth analysis of Moderna Inc(MRNA) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of Moderna Inc earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.

Earnings Forecast

Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate

Surprise Analysis

Name
EPS
Revenue
Price Reaction
Fiscal QuarterEarning DateTimeEstimateActualSurprise%EstimateActualSurprise%1D5D
Fiscal Quarter
Earning Date
Time
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
1D
5D
FY2025Q32025-11-06Pre-Market-2.15-0.51+76.28869.89M1.02B+16.80+3.27+12.10
FY2025Q22025-08-01Pre-Market-2.99-2.13+28.76112.56M142.00M+26.15-6.61-9.64
FY2025Q12025-05-01Pre-Market-2.92-2.52+13.70115.32M108.00M-6.35-5.29-14.40
FY2024Q42025-02-14Pre-Market-2.69-2.91-8.18941.14M966.00M+2.64+3.35+11.31
FY2024Q22024-08-01--3.47-3.33+4.03134.87M241.00M+78.69-21.01-31.60
FY2024Q12024-05-02--3.59-3.07+14.48125.33M167.00M+33.25+12.68+9.36
FY2023Q42024-02-22--0.780.55+170.512.53B2.81B+11.00+13.53+11.29
FY2023Q32023-11-02--2.01-1.39+30.851.38B1.83B+32.49-6.52-6.38
FY2023Q22023-08-03--3.84-3.62+5.73305.56M344.00M+12.58-0.24-7.62
-2023-05-04--1.770.19+110.73---+3.22+0.53
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AI Stock Picker

MRNA Earnings Analysis

Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, Moderna Inc reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-11-06. The company achieved an EPS of -0.51, compared to analyst estimates of -2.15 by 76.28% . Revenue for the quarter reached 1.02B compared to expectations of 869.89M by 16.80% .
The stock price reacted with a 3.27% one-day change and a 12.10% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in Moderna Inc growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

MRNA Earnings Forecast

Looking ahead, Moderna Inc(MRNA) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 626.35M and an EPS of -2.76.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Downward by -1.13%, while EPS estimates have been Revise Downward by -16.49%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Downward by -14.62% . These revisions correlate with a 1.39% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in Moderna Inc long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.

Estimate Revision

The chart shows the correlation between MRNA's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Downward
down Image
-1.13%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
Revise Downward
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-16.49%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
Revise Downward
down Image
-14.62%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Up
up Image
+1.39%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:1.89B
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:-8.14
—
Stock Price25.49
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Financial AI Agent

MRNA Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective

Moderna Inc revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-11-06,Pre-Market):
EPS: -0.51 (Actual) vs.-2.15 (Estimate) (76.28%)
Revenue: 1.02B (Actual) vs. 869.89M (Estimate) (16.80%)
Price Reaction: 3.27%(1-Day), 12.10%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-08-01,Pre-Market):
EPS: -2.13 (Actual) vs.-2.99 (Estimate) (28.76%)
Revenue: 142.00M (Actual) vs. 112.56M (Estimate) (26.15%)
Price Reaction: -6.61%(1-Day), -9.64%(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-05-01,Pre-Market):
EPS: -2.52 (Actual) vs.-2.92 (Estimate) (13.70%)
Revenue: 108.00M (Actual) vs. 115.32M (Estimate) (-6.35%)
Price Reaction: -5.29%(1-Day), -14.40%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how MRNA performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MRNA sees a +7.79% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -3.23% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.36%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed 0.86% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by -8.10% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
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Transcript Summary

Moderna Inc (MRNA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-11-06
The earnings call summary and Q&A reveal concerns about declining vaccination rates, reduced revenue projections, and unclear guidance on future large deals. Despite cost reduction plans and strategic partnerships, the market may react negatively to the reduced revenue guidance and lack of detailed future growth projections. The negative sentiment is reinforced by declining COVID vaccine demand and the cautious outlook on new product launches. These factors suggest a likely negative stock price movement in the short term.
Moderna Inc (MRNA) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-08-01
The earnings call suggests a positive outlook with strong financial metrics, ongoing product development, and strategic cost-cutting measures. The company is optimistic about its pipeline and regulatory interactions, despite some uncertainties in demand. The focus on partnerships and expansion in oncology and vaccines indicates growth potential. No significant negative trends were highlighted, and management's cautious optimism suggests a positive sentiment. However, the lack of specific guidance on some aspects prevents a stronger positive rating.
Moderna Inc (MRNA) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-05-02
The earnings call reflects several negative factors: a significant revenue drop, extended product approval timelines, and competitive pressures. While cost reductions and improved losses are positive, the lack of a share buyback program and uncertainties in guidance further weigh on sentiment. The Q&A reveals management's evasive responses and lack of updates on key trials, adding to the negative outlook. Given these factors, the stock is likely to experience a negative reaction, with potential price decline between -2% and -8%.
Moderna Inc (MRNA) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-05-01
The earnings call reveals a decrease in revenue and net product sales, coupled with a significant net loss, despite cost reduction efforts. The Q&A session shows management's inability to provide clear guidance, particularly concerning regulatory interactions and vaccine developments. No share repurchase program is in place, and the market may react negatively to the weak financial performance and unclear future strategies. The absence of positive catalysts, like new partnerships or strong guidance, further supports a negative sentiment.
Moderna Inc (MRNA) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-02-14
The earnings call reveals significant challenges: a sharp decline in revenue and net income, ongoing net losses, and uncertainty about future guidance. Despite cost reductions, the lack of shareholder return plans and potential supply chain issues add to investor concerns. The Q&A highlighted management's inability to provide clear guidance on critical issues, further eroding confidence. Overall, these factors suggest a likely negative stock price movement in the short term.
Moderna (MRNA) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-11-07
The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture: strong EPS improvement and significant cost reductions are positive, but lower international sales and RSV vaccine sales below expectations are negatives. The Q&A session reveals management's cautious tone, especially around future revenue guarantees and market dynamics, which could temper investor enthusiasm. The reduced sales guidance and lack of clear guidance on market share and product transitions further contribute to a neutral sentiment, balancing the positive financial improvements with uncertainties in future growth and market positioning.
Moderna (MRNA) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2024-08-01
The earnings call summary indicates declining financial performance, with a significant drop in net product sales and a net loss, despite cost reductions. The Q&A section reveals competitive pressures and regulatory issues impacting revenue, alongside vague management responses. The absence of a shareholder return plan further weighs negatively. While the company has strategic initiatives, the short-term outlook is clouded by economic factors and supply chain challenges. Overall, the sentiment is negative, expecting a stock price movement between -2% and -8%.

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FAQ

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What were the key highlights of MRNA’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q3?

MRNA reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-11-06, showcasing a revenue of 1.02B against an estimate of 869.89M, resulting in a 16.8% surprise. The EPS was -0.51, surpassing the expected -2.15 by 76.28% . The stock experienced a 3.27% price change on the earnings day and a 12.1% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.
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How did MRNA’s stock price react after the FY2025Q3 earnings release?

Following MRNA’s FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-11-06, the stock price moved by 3.27% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a 12.10% change. Historically, MRNA’s stock price tends to shift by an average of +7.79% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -3.23% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.
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What are the revenue and EPS estimates for MRNA for 2025/Q4?

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate MRNA’s annual revenue to reach 626.35M, while the EPS is projected at -2.76. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue Revise Downward by -1.13% and EPS estimates Revise Downward by -14.62% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.
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How does MRNA’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?

The correlation between MRNA’s stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were Revise Downward by -1.13%, while EPS estimates moved Revise Downward by -14.62% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.
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What should investors expect from MRNA’s next earnings report?

Based on historical trends, MRNA’s stock price typically moves by +7.79% in the 10 days before its earnings and -3.23% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of -2.76 and revenue of 626.35M.
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What is the sentiment in Moderna Inc (MRNA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary?

The earnings call summary and Q&A reveal concerns about declining vaccination rates, reduced revenue projections, and unclear guidance on future large deals. Despite cost reduction plans and strategic partnerships, the market may react negatively to the reduced revenue guidance and lack of detailed future growth projections. The negative sentiment is reinforced by declining COVID vaccine demand and the cautious outlook on new product launches. These factors suggest a likely negative stock price movement in the short term.
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