MRNA Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MRNA performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MRNA sees a +4.47% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.86% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.35%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MRNA Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
966.00M
-65.64%
-48.12%
Gross Margin
43.48%
-43.98%
-48.17%
Operating Margin
-109.01%
-1101.01%
-1510.22%
Net Margin
-115.94%
-1601.81%
-16662.86%
EPS
-2.89
-607.02%
-9733.33%
No Data Available
MRNA Earnings Analysis
Moderna Inc Corporation (MRNA.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Cost Savings Achievement: In 2024, Moderna achieved significant cost savings of $2.6 billion, a 27% reduction from 2023, demonstrating effective operational management.
Strong Liquidity Position: The company ended the year with $9.5 billion in cash and investments, indicating strong liquidity and financial stability.
Sales Growth Strategy: Moderna is focusing on 10 high-volume programs expected to drive sales growth and diversification over the next three years, including respiratory vaccines and oncology products.
Vaccine Development Progress: The company reported positive Phase III results for four respiratory vaccine programs and filed for FDA approval for multiple vaccines, showcasing strong progress in its pipeline.
R&D Expense Reduction: R&D expenses decreased by 20% year-over-year in Q4 2024, reflecting lower clinical development costs and improved operational efficiency.
Cost Management Success: SG&A expenses were down 25% year-over-year in Q4 2024, highlighting the company's commitment to cost management and operational efficiencies.
Revenue Stabilization and Expansion: Moderna's total revenue for 2024 was $3.2 billion, with a focus on stabilizing the COVID market and expanding its product offerings.
Revenue Forecast for 2025: The company anticipates a revenue range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion for 2025, reflecting a strategic approach to navigating market uncertainties and competition.
Negative
Decline in Net Sales: Net product sales for 2024 were $3.1 billion, at the lower end of revised guidance, indicating a decline due to lower vaccination rates and increased competition.
Q4 Revenue Decline: Total revenue for Q4 2024 was $966 million, down 66% from the same period last year, impacted by earlier launch of the updated COVID vaccine and lower international sales.
Net Loss Comparison: The company reported a net loss of $3.6 billion for the year, compared to a loss of $4.7 billion in 2023, indicating ongoing financial challenges despite some cost reductions.
Q4 Cost of Sales Analysis: Cost of sales for Q4 was $739 million, including significant inventory write-downs and a non-cash charge from a contract manufacturing agreement termination, reflecting operational inefficiencies.
R&D Expense Decline: R&D expenses for Q4 were $1.1 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year decline, but still indicating high ongoing investment in clinical programs amidst financial losses.
Revenue Forecast Uncertainty: The company anticipates total revenue in 2025 to be between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, reflecting uncertainties in vaccination rates and market competition.
Norovirus Vaccine Clinical Hold: The norovirus vaccine is on clinical hold due to a reported case of Guillain-Barré syndrome, raising concerns about patient safety and potential delays in the trial.
Vaccine Trial Efficacy Concerns: The CMV vaccine trial did not meet early efficacy criteria, which may impact future expectations and timelines for product approval.
Cautious Revenue Forecasting: The company has not included any new product revenue in its 2025 guidance, indicating caution in forecasting due to uncertainties surrounding product approvals.
MRNA FAQs
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MRNA Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Moderna Q4 2024 sees revenue drop, market reacts
MRNA.O
0.38%Positive
The earnings call reveals significant challenges: a sharp decline in revenue and net income, ongoing net losses, and uncertainty about future guidance. Despite cost reductions, the lack of shareholder return plans and potential supply chain issues add to investor concerns. The Q&A highlighted management's inability to provide clear guidance on critical issues, further eroding confidence. Overall, these factors suggest a likely negative stock price movement in the short term.
