Should I Buy MRCY? MRCY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

98.290

1 Day change

-1.73%

52 Week Range

103.840

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner, long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. While there are some positive aspects such as bullish technical indicators and a modest revenue increase in the latest quarter, the company faces significant challenges, including declining net income, EPS, and insider/hedge fund selling. Additionally, the options data suggests bearish sentiment, and analysts have mixed views with limited upside potential. Given these factors, it is better to hold off on buying at this time.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators for MRCY are moderately bullish. The MACD histogram is positive at 0.662, indicating upward momentum, and the RSI of 64.269 is in the neutral zone. Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), and the stock is trading above its pivot point of 97.105, with resistance at 102.953 and support at 91.258. However, the stock's recent price change of -0.43% suggests limited immediate momentum.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Revenue increased by 10.16% YoY in Q1 2026, showing some growth.
Gross margin improved by 17.79% YoY to 23.37%.
Bullish technical indicators suggest potential for upward price movement.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Net income dropped by 28.59% YoY, and EPS declined by 30.00%, indicating profitability challenges.
Insider and hedge fund selling have increased significantly, signaling potential lack of confidence.
Options data shows bearish sentiment with a high Open Interest Put-Call Ratio of 1.72 and Option Volume Put-Call Ratio of 1.
Analysts have mixed views, with one maintaining a Sell rating and another highlighting limited upside potential.

Financial Performance

In Q1 2026, Mercury Systems reported a revenue increase of 10.16% YoY to $225.2M. However, net income dropped to -$12.5M (-28.59% YoY), and EPS fell to -0.21 (-30.00% YoY). Gross margin improved to 23.37% (+17.79% YoY), but the overall financial performance reflects profitability challenges despite revenue growth.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts have mixed views on MRCY. Truist raised the price target to $102 with a Buy rating, citing strong aerospace and defense demand. However, Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating with a price target of $55, citing demanding valuations and limited near-term upside. RBC Capital is more optimistic with a $95 price target and an Outperform rating, highlighting Q3 outperformance and minimal risks from the shutdown.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MRCY stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRCY is 81.2 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 102 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 100.020

Low

Averages

81.2

High

102

Current: 100.020

Low

Averages

81.2

High

102

Goldman Sachs

NULL -> Sell

downgrade

$49 -> $55

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$49 -> $55

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

downgrade

NULL -> Sell

Reason

Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Mercury Systems to $55 from $49 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm's Q4 Aerospace & Defense preview highlights favorable aerospace OE conditions, with supply below demand, while aftermarket growth outpaces global ASMs with strong pricing supporting margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Business jet demand remains solid amid tight supply, defense hardware growth is improving though margins face risk from shifting contracts, defense tech momentum emphasizes faster, commercial-style providers, and federal IT obligations continue under pressure, the firm says.

Truist

Michael Ciarmoli

maintain

$100 -> $102

2026-01-09

Reason

Truist

Michael Ciarmoli

Price Target

$100 -> $102

2026-01-09

maintain

Reason

Truist analyst Michael Ciarmoli raised the firm's price target on Mercury Systems to $102 from $100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Despite a strong 2025, the Aerospace & Defense sector remains broadly bullish for 2026, with rising aircraft production and sustained aftermarket demand supporting both OE and AM segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Defense may see fewer catalysts, but recapitalization, geopolitical tensions, and replenishment needs should sustain demand, making stock selection critical amid elevated valuations, particularly for SMID defense tech names, the firm adds.

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MRCY Should I Buy

MRCY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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