Should You Buy MINISO Group Holding Ltd (MNSO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
18.590
1 Day change
-1.59%
52 Week Range
26.740
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
MNSO is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The tape is bearish (downtrend across key moving averages and weakening MACD), and near-term pattern stats favor further downside over the next day/week. While the 1-month outlook shows potential rebound and sell-side upside exists (DB $23 Buy), the current setup does not offer a clean, high-conviction entry at the pre-market price (~18.89).
Technical Analysis
Trend is bearish: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms a sustained downtrend. Momentum is deteriorating with MACD histogram at -0.0692 and negatively expanding (bearish continuation risk). RSI_6 at ~35.4 is not deeply oversold but near the lower band, implying mild oversold/weak momentum rather than a confirmed reversal. Price is trading just above key support S1=18.852; a break below S1 exposes S2=18.507. Upside levels to reclaim are Pivot=19.412 then R1=19.972; without a push back above the pivot, rallies look more like bounces than trend changes.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest skews bullish (OI put/call 0.38: more calls outstanding), but today’s trading flow is bearish/defensive (put/call volume 2.24 with puts 305 vs calls 136). Implied vol is elevated (30D IV ~56 vs HV ~34), suggesting the market is pricing larger moves; that tends to align with uncertainty and downside hedging pressure in the near term.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
resumed with Buy and a $23 target. Mildly low RSI and proximity to support (18.85 area) could spark a technical bounce if support holds. Pattern-based stats also show a positive 1-month expectation (+5.37%).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical downtrend is intact (bearish MA stack) and MACD is worsening, increasing the odds of support failure. Short-term pattern stats are negative (next day -3.25%, next week -1.33%). Profitability is weakening: 2025/Q3 net income -31.36% YoY and EPS -30.77% YoY, with slight gross margin erosion. Options flow shows elevated put demand (put-heavy volume), consistent with near-term caution.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth is top-line strong with revenue up ~28.17% YoY to 5,796,645,000. However, earnings quality weakened: net income fell ~31.36% YoY to 440,539,000 and EPS fell ~30.77% YoY to 0.36. Gross margin slipped slightly to ~44.68% (-0.47% YoY). Overall: strong sales momentum but declining profitability, which can cap near-term upside until margins/earnings stabilize.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating action: Deutsche Bank resumed coverage (2025-11-25) with a Buy rating and a $23 price target, implying notable upside versus ~18.89. Wall Street pro view (from provided data): Pros—top-line growth and a supportive buy rating/target. Cons—earnings/margins trending down and the current chart/flow signaling weak near-term sentiment. No notable hedge fund/insider trend shifts were observed, and no recent congress trading data is available; no politician/influential trading activity was provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast MNSO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MNSO is 25.55 USD with a low forecast of 23 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MNSO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MNSO is 25.55 USD with a low forecast of 23 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 18.890
Low
23
Averages
25.55
High
27
Current: 18.890
Low
23
Averages
25.55
High
27
Deutsche Bank
NULL
to
Buy
initiated
$23
AI Analysis
2025-11-25
Reason
Deutsche Bank
Price Target
$23
AI Analysis
2025-11-25
initiated
NULL
to
Buy
Reason
Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of Miniso with a Buy rating and $23 price target.
BofA
Lucy Yu
Underperform -> Neutral
upgrade
$24
2025-08-21
Reason
BofA
Lucy Yu
Price Target
$24
2025-08-21
upgrade
Underperform -> Neutral
Reason
BofA analyst Lucy Yu upgraded Miniso to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $24, up from $16.50.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MNSO
