Should I Buy MEDP? MEDP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

593.070

1 Day change

-0.81%

52 Week Range

628.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

MEDP is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The short-term tape is weakening (bearish/expanding MACD, price below the 604 pivot with nearby downside supports), and options open-interest positioning is defensively skewed (OI put/call 1.71). Without an Intellectia buy signal today, the setup doesn’t justify chasing at ~$594; the higher-probability bullish trigger would be reclaiming and holding above ~604–623, or a cleaner dip-and-hold at ~585/573.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: MEDP closed at 593.62, below the pivot resistance at 604.03, indicating the market is currently trading beneath a key decision level. Momentum: MACD histogram is -2.25 and negatively expanding, which supports a near-term bearish/downshifted trend rather than a fresh uptrend. RSI: RSI(6) at ~41.4 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), suggesting there’s room for additional downside before a mean-reversion “forced bounce” becomes likely. Moving averages: Converging MAs typically signal consolidation; with MACD weakening, the consolidation bias currently leans down. Levels: Resistance: 604 (pivot), then 623 (R1) and 635 (R2). Support: 585 (S1) then 573 (S2). With price at ~594, downside to S1 is closer than an upside breakout above the pivot. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Open interest put/call at 1.71 is meaningfully put-heavy, consistent with hedging or cautious sentiment into the next catalyst window. However, same-day volume put/call at 0.24 shows call volume exceeded put volume today (short-term trading flow more bullish). Volatility: 30D IV ~39.6 vs historical vol ~37.0 implies modestly elevated option pricing (not extreme). IV percentile ~57.6 suggests volatility is mid-to-high relative to its own history, consistent with event/catalyst anticipation rather than panic.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-09 after hours (EPS est. 4.18) is the next clear catalyst; strong execution could re-rate the stock.
Fundamentals momentum: Latest quarter showed strong top-line and EPS growth (supports bull case if sustained).
Options flow: Despite put-heavy open interest, today’s option volume skewed toward calls (volume P/C 0.24), which can align with short-term speculative optimism.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Near-term technical deterioration: Bearish, expanding MACD below the pivot level increases the odds of a drift toward ~585 or ~573 before a durable breakout.
Defensive options positioning: Put-heavy open interest (P/C 1.71) suggests investors are hedging or braced for downside.
Analyst narrative risk: Commentary highlights valuation/fullness and a "tepid" biotech funding backdrop; that can pressure CRO demand expectations and multiples.
No supportive news flow: No fresh positive news in the last week to offset weakening technicals.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue grew to $659.9M (+23.74% YoY), Net Income to $111.1M (+15.25% YoY), and EPS to $3.86 (+28.24% YoY). Growth is strong, but Gross Margin fell to 28.78% (-4.95% YoY), which is the main quality-of-earnings watch item (margin pressure) heading into the next earnings report.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent changes are mixed-to-slightly cautious overall. Mizuho (2026-01-09) reiterated Outperform and nudged PT up to $660, while Barclays (2025-12-15) kept Underweight with PT raised to $525, and BMO (2025-11-12) initiated at Market Perform with a $600 PT citing full valuation and limited cushion in a tepid biotech funding backdrop. Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros—some see continued execution and upside (Mizuho). Cons—others view valuation as stretched and macro/funding as a constraint (BMO/Barclays), which aligns with the current lack of technical upside confirmation.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MEDP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MEDP is 569.17 USD with a low forecast of 462 USD and a high forecast of 660 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

4 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 597.910

Low

462

Averages

569.17

High

660

Current: 597.910

Low

462

Averages

569.17

High

660

Mizuho

Outperform

maintain

$655 -> $660

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$655 -> $660

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Medpace to $660 from $655 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the healthcare facilities and managed care group as part of a Q4 preview. Mizuho's physician survey indicated healthcare utilization growth trends decelerated sequentially despite easier year-over-year comps, which could indicate trend is peaking, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Barclays

Luke Sergott

Underweight

maintain

$485 -> $525

2025-12-15

Reason

Barclays

Luke Sergott

Price Target

$485 -> $525

2025-12-15

maintain

Underweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Luke Sergott raised the firm's price target on Medpace to $525 from $485 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and price targets in the life sciences and diagnostics tools space as part of its 2026 outlook. The last of the estimate cuts, recovering end markets and tools being the "most under-owned space in healthcare" creates a "great setup" for outperformance of the tools group in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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MEDP Should I Buy

MEDP Should I Buy

Should You Buy Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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