MEDP Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MEDP performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MEDP sees a -0.98% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +6.71% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.62%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MEDP Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
533.32M
8.29%
0.99%
Gross Margin
30.28%
18.05%
9.08%
Operating Margin
21.05%
22.10%
5.73%
Net Margin
18.08%
26.26%
8.07%
EPS
3.01
35.59%
9.45%
No Data Available
MEDP Earnings Analysis
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Common Stock Corporation (MEDP.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Q3 Revenue Increase: Revenue for the third quarter of 2024 was $533.3 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.3%.
Net Income Increase: Net income of $96.4 million increased 36.7% compared to net income of $70.6 million in the prior year period.
EBITDA Growth Surge: EBITDA of $118.8 million increased 31.7% compared to $90.2 million in the third quarter of 2023.
EBITDA Growth Increase: Year-to-date EBITDA was $346.7 million, an increase of 30% from the comparable prior year.
Backlog Increase Analysis: Ending backlog as of September 30, 2024, was approximately $2.9 billion, an increase of 8.8% from the prior year.
Negative
Elevated Backlog Cancellations: Backlog cancellations in Q3 were above our usual range, making for three consecutive quarters of elevated cancellations.
Backlog Awards Decline: Net new business awards entering backlog in the third quarter decreased 12.7% from the prior year to $533.7 million, representing a 1.0 net book-to-bill.
Backlog Increase Analysis: Ending backlog as of September 30, 2024 was approximately $2.9 billion, an increase of 8.8% from the prior year.
Net Income Increase Analysis: Net income of $96.4 million in Q3 increased 36.7%, compared to net income of $70.6 million in the prior year period, but net income growth ahead of EBITDA growth was primarily driven by interest income, partially offset by a higher effective tax rate in the quarter.
Backlog Revenue Conversion Projection: We project that approximately $1.62 billion of backlog will convert to revenue in the next 12 months, but backlog conversion in the third quarter was 18.2% of beginning backlog.
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MEDP Earning Call Sentiment
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
MEDP.O
2.35%Positive
The earnings call reveals several concerning trends: elevated cancellations impacting backlog, a high customer concentration risk, and no share repurchases planned, despite authorization. Although financial metrics like EBITDA and net income have grown, the lack of guidance for 2025 and the management's evasive answers in the Q&A section highlight uncertainties. Additionally, the book-to-bill ratio remains low, and future backlog recognition is expected to be depressed. These factors suggest a negative market reaction over the next two weeks.