Should I Buy MCHX? MCHX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Marchex Inc (MCHX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

1.650

1 Day change

-0.60%

52 Week Range

2.310

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Not a good buy right now. MCHX is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving averages + weakening MACD) and there are no Intellectia buy signals to justify an aggressive entry for an impatient buyer. With price sitting right on key support (~1.636), the risk/reward favors waiting for a confirmed reversal or a clean bounce before buying.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downside momentum. MACD histogram (-0.00982) is below zero and negatively expanding, suggesting the down move is still strengthening rather than stabilizing. RSI_6 at 26.72 is oversold-leaning (despite the label), which can allow for a short-term bounce, but it is not a reversal signal by itself. Price (1.6395) is essentially at S1 support (1.636); a breakdown exposes S2 (1.593). Resistance levels sit above at Pivot 1.705 and R1 1.773, meaning upside is capped unless price reclaims ~1.705. Pattern-based stats also lean negative: ~50% chance of -0.52% next day, -2.39% next week, -0.86% next month. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options show extremely elevated implied volatility (IV_30d ~245.76) versus historical volatility (~47.04), with IV percentile at 92.4—pricing in large moves. However, activity is thin: today’s option volume is 0 and open interest is small (calls OI 165, puts OI 0). Put/call ratios are effectively 0, but given the near-zero put OI/volume, this is more a liquidity artifact than a confident bullish read. Net takeaway: sentiment from options is not reliable due to low liquidity, but the market is pricing high event/move risk.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Oversold/near-support setup: price is sitting on S1 (~1.636), which can trigger a technical bounce if it holds.
Upcoming earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 after hours; a surprise could re-rate the stock.
Loss is narrowing YoY (net income improved 22.74% YoY), which may appeal if the company can stabilize revenue.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Primary trend is down: bearish MA stack plus MACD worsening makes dips prone to continue rather than reverse.
Revenue contraction in the latest quarter (2025/Q3 revenue -8.28% YoY) and gross margin compression (-3.12% YoY) weaken the fundamental narrative.
Options imply very large moves (very high IV) but liquidity is poor; this increases gap-risk without giving a clear sentiment edge.
No supportive news flow in the past week and no notable hedge fund/insider accumulation signals (both neutral).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to $11.514M (-8.28% YoY), indicating top-line weakness. Net income improved to -$1.02M (loss narrowed, +22.74% YoY), and EPS was -$0.02 (flat YoY). Gross margin declined to 63.12% (-3.12% YoY), suggesting profitability quality is not improving alongside the narrower loss. Overall: some cost/loss improvement, but growth and margin trends are negative.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a recent trend cannot be confirmed. Wall Street-style pros (based on available fundamentals): narrowing losses and a potential earnings catalyst. Cons: declining revenue and gross margin, small-cap liquidity constraints, and a technically bearish chart. Net: without visible analyst upgrades/targets and with weak price action, the ‘pro’ case is not strong enough to justify buying now.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MCHX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCHX is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy