Should You Buy Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
40.440
1 Day change
52 Week Range
43.770
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
MBIN is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock just had a sharp run-up and is technically overbought (RSI ~80) while sitting near/just above a key resistance zone (~39.61) with the next resistance around ~41.20—this setup often leads to a near-term pullback or consolidation. While the new $100M buyback is a real positive catalyst, fundamentals in the latest quarter weakened meaningfully (revenue, EPS, and net income all down YoY), and options positioning (high put/call open interest) leans defensive. Best stance today: hold/avoid chasing; only becomes attractive on a pullback toward support (~37 or lower).
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish but stretched. Moving averages are aligned bullishly (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.276), confirming momentum. However, RSI(6) at ~80.3 signals overbought conditions and elevated odds of a near-term dip. Price is above the pivot (~37.04) and has pushed through/around R1 (~39.61); the next upside level is R2 (~41.20). With the recent +15.7% regular-session move, the risk/reward for a new entry is unfavorable for an impatient buyer. Pattern-based projection also suggests mild weakness near-term (next day -0.52%, next week -1.08%) before potential recovery (next month +3.33%).
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment skews defensive: put open interest (598) materially exceeds call open interest (223), producing a high open-interest put/call ratio (2.68). That typically implies hedging demand or bearish positioning into upcoming events. Reported option volume is effectively zero today (put/call volume ratio 0.0), so the signal is more about positioning than fresh flow. Implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~50.7%) versus historical volatility (~24.7%), consistent with event risk (earnings 2026-02-10) and/or recent large price movement.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
13
Positive Catalysts
- Board approved a $100M stock repurchase program (through 2027), supportive for shares and can provide downside support.
- Hedge funds are reported as buying aggressively over the last quarter (large increase in buying activity).
- Technical trend remains bullish (bullish MA stack; positive/expanding MACD).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
after a sharp move; probability of a near-term pullback/consolidation is high.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth trends weakened: revenue was $161.812M (-4.56% YoY), net income $58.798M (-30.78% YoY), and EPS $1.28 (-30.81% YoY). This is a clear YoY deceleration in profitability, which makes the stock less compelling to buy immediately after a sharp rally despite the buyback news. Next key checkpoint is QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 after hours (Street EPS est. ~0.94).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price-target change data was provided in the dataset, so no confirmed trend can be summarized. Wall Street-style pros from the available data: buyback authorization and strong recent momentum. Cons: notable YoY earnings decline in the latest quarter and defensive options positioning into the next earnings event.
Wall Street analysts forecast MBIN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MBIN is 41 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MBIN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MBIN is 41 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 40.440
Low
40
Averages
41
High
42
Current: 40.440
Low
40
Averages
41
High
42
Piper Sandler
Overweight
maintain
$41 -> $42
AI Analysis
2025-10-30
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$41 -> $42
AI Analysis
2025-10-30
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Merchants Bancorp to $42 from $41 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's Q3 results were mixed given relatively elevated NCOs and as both NPAs and substandard loans again increased. Encouragingly, Piper has greater conviction that Merchants has largely ring-fenced or exited fraud-related credits coming out of Q3 and asset quality metrics should begin to inflect favorably in early 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight -> Attractive
upgrade
$34 -> $39
2025-09-29
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$34 -> $39
2025-09-29
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Attractive
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Merchants Bancorp to $39 from $34 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. A steepening yield curve with lower short end rates is \"an ideal backdrop for Midcap Banks,\" says the analyst, who is upgrading the industry view to Attractive. The midcap banks group has underperformed year-to-date, setting up \"a compelling buying opportunity,\" the analyst tells investors.
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