Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is in a clear downtrend with deteriorating momentum and weak near-term return odds.
Fundamentals/news skew negative (sharp Q4 EPS drop, flat-to-down same-store performance), which can keep pressure on the stock despite being near support.
Options positioning is mixed (heavy put open interest vs. call-heavy volume today), but not strong enough to override the bearish trend.
Wall Street targets imply upside from $130, but ratings are mostly Neutral/Equal Weight with cautious commentary—more “wait for stabilization” than “buy now.”
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, and a MACD histogram at -0.409 that is negative and expanding (downtrend strengthening).
RSI: RSI_6 at 33.4 is near oversold territory (can bounce), but it’s not a confirmed reversal signal by itself.
Levels: Immediate support is S1 ~130.71 and then S2 ~129.12; current price (130.41) is already below S1, so the next downside magnet is ~129.12. Resistance/pivot overhead at ~133.27, then ~135.84.
Pattern-based forward odds (given): Expected bias is slightly negative (-0.58% 1-week, -1.73% 1-month), which aligns with the current bearish trend.
Positioning/Sentiment: Open-interest put/call of 2.04 is put-heavy (more protective/defensive positioning over time), typically bearish-to-cautious.
Flow Today: Volume put/call of 0.33 shows more calls traded than puts today (tactically bullish/looking for a bounce), but it conflicts with the heavier put OI.
Volatility: 30D IV ~22.84 vs historical vol ~19.92; IV percentile ~54 suggests options are not extremely expensive or extremely cheap—no strong “panic” read.
Technical Summary
Sell
13
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
Analyst upside exists: multiple price targets sit well above $130 (e.g., $158 BMO, $160 Citizens), implying potential mean reversion if fundamentals stabilize.
Sector macro potential: Several analysts cite 2026 supply easing / Sunbelt dynamics and possible rate-cut tailwinds as catalysts for apartment REITs.
Balance sheet/credit profile noted as robust in recent commentary, which can support the dividend and reduce downside tail risk.
Long-term pipeline optionality: land acquired in Kansas City and Phoenix for future development.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Earnings quality/news shock: Q4 2025 diluted EPS reported at $0.48, down ~66.9% YoY—headline-negative and likely a near-term sentiment drag.
Operating trend softening: 2025 same-store revenues -0.1%, expenses +0.7%, NOI -0.5% (pressure on cash flow).
Technical trend is decisively bearish (moving averages stacked down; MACD worsening), increasing risk of support breaks.
Flows: Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up 1280.27% over the last quarter), signaling institutional risk-off.
No supportive political flow signal: no recent congress trading data available.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $554.373M, up +0.59% YoY (low growth).
Profitability: Net income $98.564M, down -13.71% YoY; EPS $0.84, down -14.29% YoY.
Margins: Gross margin 57.75%, down -1.25% YoY (incremental compression).
Recent quarter news context (Q4 2025): diluted EPS $0.48 (very large YoY decline) and same-store NOI down, reinforcing the weakening earnings trajectory.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend is mixed: one notable upgrade (BMO to Outperform, PT $158) alongside several Neutral/In Line/Equal Weight stances and multiple target trims (e.g., Goldman to $139 Neutral; Scotiabank downgrade to Sector Perform $142).
Targets cluster roughly mid-$130s to $160, with the lower end (UBS $134, Cantor $137, Goldman $139) closer to price—suggesting limited near-term conviction.
Wall Street pros: expectation for Sunbelt improvement into 2026, easing supply, and potential rate-cut tailwinds; MAA viewed as a quality REIT with a solid profile.
Wall Street cons: more challenging fundamentals near-term (slower lease-ups, expense pressures), and several firms remain neutral—implying “not compelling enough to chase today.”
Wall Street analysts forecast MAA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MAA is 147.24 USD with a low forecast of 132.11 USD and a high forecast of 167 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MAA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MAA is 147.24 USD with a low forecast of 132.11 USD and a high forecast of 167 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 135.050
Low
132.11
Averages
147.24
High
167
Current: 135.050
Low
132.11
Averages
147.24
High
167
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
downgrade
$143 -> $139
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$143 -> $139
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on MAA to $139 from $143 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is reducing its estimates on the REIT to reflect higher G&A expense expectations, higher mix of senior unsecured debt within issuance mix in 2026, and slower lease-ups of ongoing developments in light of a more challenging fundamental environment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BMO Capital
Market Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$150 -> $158
2026-01-09
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$150 -> $158
2026-01-09
upgrade
Market Perform -> Outperform
Reason
BMO Capital upgraded MAA to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $158, up from $150. The firm favors Sunbelt apartment real estate investment trusts in 2026 due to decelerating supply and potential job growth catalysts in construction, healthcare, tourism and education. It shuffled ratings in the space as part of its 2026 outlook.
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