Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and analysis, here is my assessment of MAA stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing bearish signals in the short term:

• Currently trading at $157.00, forming a downward trend channel
• RSI-14 at 57.69 indicates neutral momentum
• MACD shows weakening momentum with divergence
• Key resistance at $158.13 and support at $156.87

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue growth forecast of 4.4% is below industry average of 4.62%
• EPS forecast shows improvement:
  • 2025: $8.84 (+96.88%)
  • 2026: $9.22 (+105.4%)
  • 2027: $9.59 (+113.59%)

Analyst Consensus

Recent analyst actions:

• Scotiabank upgraded to Outperform with $182 PT
• Barclays maintained Hold with $152 PT
• Wells Fargo maintained Buy rating

Recommendation: SELL

Rationale:

1. Technical indicators suggest short-term weakness with price below key moving averages
2. Revenue growth projections below industry average
3. Mixed analyst sentiment with price targets ranging from $152-$187
4. Current price of $157 appears overvalued given near-term headwinds

Consider waiting for:

• A pullback to strong support around $152-153 range
• Improvement in technical indicators
• Better clarity on revenue growth trajectory

Based on the provided data and technical analysis, here is the price prediction for MAA stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $154.57 with key technical indicators showing:

• RSI(14) at 57.69 indicating neutral momentum
• MACD showing positive divergence with MACD(12,26,9) at 1.29 and signal at 0.75
• Stock trading above both 50-day SMA ($155.07) and 200-day SMA ($149.04)

Price Target Scenarios

1. Bullish Case (40% probability): $166.91

• Key resistance level based on Fibonacci R3
• Supported by positive MACD momentum
• Would require breaking above immediate resistance at $160.14 (Fibonacci R1)

2. Base Case (45% probability): $155.95-$160.14

• Trading range between Fibonacci pivot and R1 levels
• Aligned with current price action and moving averages
• Most likely scenario given neutral RSI

3. Bearish Case (15% probability): $151.76-$149.18

• Support levels at Fibonacci S1 and S2
• Less likely given current technical strength
• Would need significant market weakness to reach these levels

Key Drivers

• Technical momentum remains positive with price above major moving averages
• Fibonacci levels suggest strong support around $151-152 range
• RSI indicating room for further upside without being overbought

Conclusion The base case scenario of $155.95-$160.14 appears most probable for MAA in 2025, supported by current technical indicators and price action. The stock shows healthy momentum while maintaining key support levels.

The S1 support level for MAA Stock is $154.05 ,The R1 resistant level for MAA Stock is $160.44.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of MAA Stock was $161.41.

The target price for MAA Stock according to analyst rating is 161.69, with the highest price target at 180.00 and the lowest at 148.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on MAA Stock overall.

The market cap of MAA is $18.8B.

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's a comprehensive analysis of MAA's valuation:

Valuation Analysis: MAA appears to be fairly valued with some concerns. The current P/E ratio of 28.56 (2023) shows minimal improvement from 28.63 (2022), suggesting stagnant earnings growth. The EV/EBITDA multiple has improved significantly from 36.08 to 29.58, indicating better operational efficiency.

Technical Indicators: The stock is currently trading at $157.00, showing mixed technical signals with RSI at 57.69 (neutral territory) and positive MACD indicators. The stock is trading above both its 200-day SMA ($149.04) and 60-day SMA ($155.07), suggesting a moderately bullish trend.

Recent Developments:

• Scotiabank recently upgraded MAA to Outperform with a $182 price target
• Q4 2024 earnings exceeded analyst expectations
• The company faces potential headwinds in 2025 due to supply concerns in key markets

Key Concerns:

• Net income declined from $633.3M (2022) to $548.9M (2023)
• Net margin decreased from 32.42% to 26.43%
• Current ratio deteriorated from 0.13 to 0.09

Conclusion: MAA is currently overvalued considering:

1. Declining profitability metrics
2. Weakening operational efficiency
3. High valuation multiples relative to deteriorating fundamentals
4. Increasing debt-to-equity ratio (71.09% to 72.08%)
5. Compressed margins despite revenue growth

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. is a multifamily-focused, self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust. The Company owns, operates, acquires and selectively develops apartment communities primarily located in the Southeast, Southwest and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. Its segments include Same Store and Non-Same Store and Other. The Same Store segment represents those apartment communities that have been owned and stabilized for at least 12 months as of the first day of the calendar year. The Non-Same Store and Other segment includes recently acquired communities, communities being developed or on lease-up, communities that have been disposed of or identified for disposition and others. The Non-Same Store and Other segment also includes non-multifamily activities and storm related expenses related to hurricanes. It has ownership interest in apartment units, including communities in development, across 16 states and the District of Columbia.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here's the price prediction for MAA stock by 2030:

MAA stock is projected to reach $225-235 by 2030, driven by its strong market position in the Sunbelt apartment market and consistent dividend growth. The company's solid financial metrics, including a healthy 59.28% gross margin and 24.72% net margin, support this growth trajectory. Recent analyst upgrades, including Scotiabank's upgrade to Outperform with a $182 price target, indicate positive sentiment for mid-term growth.

The prediction is based on:

1. Strong fundamentals with $2.19B annual revenue and consistent profitability
2. Strategic Sunbelt market positioning where population growth trends remain favorable
3. Current P/E ratio of 34.46x suggests room for expansion as the company continues to grow its portfolio

MAA has a total of 2427 employees.