Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent developments, here's a concise analysis for EC stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock shows a bullish momentum with:

• RSI-14 at 71.66 indicating overbought conditions
• Strong MACD signal with positive divergence (0.45)
• Trading above all major moving averages (SMA 5,10,20,60,200)

Recent Developments

1. JPMorgan upgraded EC to Neutral from Underweight with $9.50 price target on February 13, 2025, citing Colombia's strong capital inflows and market performance.

2. However, there's political risk as Colombian President Petro recently called for selling Ecopetrol's fracking operations in the U.S. to invest in clean energy.

Valuation Metrics

Current metrics show:

• P/E: 2.74x
• EV/EBITDA: 2.78x
• P/S: 0.57x
• P/B: 1.15x
• Dividend Yield: 21.09%

Recommendation

SELL. Despite the recent upgrade and attractive valuation metrics, several factors warrant caution:

• Overbought technical conditions
• Significant political risk from potential U.S. fracking asset sales
• Uncertainty around Colombia's energy policy direction

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here's the price prediction for EC Stock in 2025:

EC stock is expected to reach $12.50 by end of 2025, driven by strong technical indicators showing 71.66 RSI and positive MACD momentum of 0.45. The stock's current upward trend and improving market sentiment suggest potential for continued growth, supported by broader market expectations of 11-13% gains for S&P 500 in 2025.

The stock's current trading level around $10.25 with strong support at $9.29 (Fibonacci S1) indicates a solid foundation for upward movement, while resistance levels at $10.52 (Fibonacci R2) and $10.99 (Fibonacci R3) provide clear price targets for 2025.

The S1 support level for EC Stock is $9.7 ,The R1 resistant level for EC Stock is $10.85.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of EC Stock was $10.44.

The target price for EC Stock according to analyst rating is 8.53, with the highest price target at 9.50 and the lowest at 8.00. Analysts have a Moderate Sell rating on EC Stock overall.

The market cap of EC is $428.8B.

Based on the provided financial data and recent analyst reports, here's a concise analysis of EC's valuation:

Financial Performance Analysis EC shows declining performance with revenue dropping from $37.5B in 2022 to $33.1B in 2023, representing an 11.7% decrease. Net income declined more sharply by 43.8% from $7.85B to $4.41B.

Key Metrics Deterioration

• ROE declined significantly from 43.1% to 22.6%
• Net margin decreased from 23.2% to 16.3%
• Gross margin contracted from 43.9% to 38.4%

Recent Developments

• JPMorgan upgraded EC to Neutral from Underweight with a $9.50 price target on February 13, 2025, citing Colombia's strong capital inflows
• Colombian President's recent proposal to sell EC's fracking operations in the U.S. to fund clean energy investments creates uncertainty

Current Valuation Assessment At the current price of $10.25, EC appears fairly valued considering:

• Improving current ratio from 1.36 to 1.58
• Stable debt management with debt-to-equity ratio at 102.6%
• Strong capital inflows into Colombian market
• Political uncertainties regarding asset sales

EC is not overvalued at current levels based on deteriorating fundamentals balanced against improving liquidity metrics and recent analyst upgrade. However, investors should monitor political risks and potential asset restructuring that could impact future valuations.

Ecopetrol S.A. is an oil company. The Company operates in Colombia, Peru, Brazil and the United States Gulf Coast. The Company's segments include Exploration and Production, Transportation and Logistics, and Refining, Petrochemicals and Biofuels. The Company's Exploration and Production segment includes exploration, development and production activities in Colombia and abroad. The Company's Transportation and Logistics segment includes the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil and other refined products, including diesel and biofuels. The Company's main crude oil pipeline systems' operating capacity is approximately 1.34 million barrels per day (BPD). The Company's main refineries are the Barrancabermeja refinery, which it directly owns and operates, and a refinery in the Free Trade Zone in Cartagena that is operated by Reficar S.A., a subsidiary of the Company. The Company also owns and operates two other minor refineries: Orito and Apiay.

Based on the provided data and recent developments, here's a price prediction for Ecopetrol (EC) stock by 2030:

EC stock is projected to reach $13.50 by 2030, driven by the company's strategic shift towards clean energy investments following President Petro's recent directive to divest U.S. fracking operations. The technical indicators show strong support at $9.29 with potential upside resistance at $10.52, suggesting a steady upward trajectory despite near-term volatility. JPMorgan's recent upgrade to Neutral with a $9.50 price target indicates institutional confidence in EC's transition strategy and Colombia's improving market conditions.

EC has a total of 19659 employees.