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01/11 04:42
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong deposit growth and positive GMV and EBITDA growth, but challenges from high interest rates and a reduced GMV growth outlook. The Q&A reveals underpenetrated opportunities in Kazakhstan, but concerns about funding costs and unclear guidance on smartphone market recovery and capital deployment. These factors balance out to a neutral sentiment.
TPV +21% year-over-year. Growth attributed to strong performance in payments despite high interest rates.
Payments Revenue +16% year-over-year. Growth driven by robust demand volumes and higher ticket sizes.
Payments Net Income +19% year-over-year. Reflects strong top-line growth and high profitability.
Marketplace GMV +15% year-over-year. Growth impacted by declining smartphone sales (-17%) but offset by strong growth in other verticals.
Marketplace Revenue +25% year-over-year. Driven by advertising revenue, delivery revenue, and revenue from classifieds.
Marketplace Net Income +13% year-over-year. Growth impacted by lower-margin e-Grocery business.
e-Grocery GMV +57% year-over-year. Fastest-growing e-commerce business with 1.1 million consumers and 3.4 million transactions.
Advertising Revenue +67% year-over-year. Growth fueled by new merchant tools and cashback services.
Fintech Origination +17% year-over-year. Growth driven by merchant and micro business finance products.
Fintech Revenue +21% year-over-year. Growth supported by stable pricing trends and healthy deposit growth.
Fintech Net Income +8% year-over-year. Impacted by high interest rates but supported by deposit growth.
Deposit Growth +18% year-over-year. Growth driven by new deposit products and higher interest rates.
Travel GMV +16% year-over-year. Growth supported by international tours and new domestic tour services.
Hepsiburada GMV +16% year-over-year. Recovery in retail environment and company-specific initiatives contributed to growth.
Hepsiburada Revenue +23% year-over-year. Growth driven by 1P business and delivery platform initiatives.
Hepsiburada EBITDA +42% year-over-year. Reflects strong operational gearing and revenue growth.
e-Grocery: Fastest-growing e-commerce business with 57% year-over-year GMV growth, over 1.1 million consumers, and 3.4 million transactions. Expanded to five largest cities in Kazakhstan and planning further expansion.
Fixed-term deposit product: Extraordinary growth of 207% in amounts and 263% in customers. Targeting savers and contributing to transactional business growth.
Kaspi QR payment network: Volumes up 128%, processed 3.4 million transactions in Q2. Partnered with five banks and integrated with Alipay for cross-border transactions.
Restaurant payment service: New service allowing seamless payments via QR codes in restaurants, improving efficiency and customer satisfaction.
Advertising tools for merchants: Introduced cashback bonuses for consumers, driving 67% ad revenue growth in Q2.
Domestic tours service: Promotes tourism in Kazakhstan with 10x growth in June, offering seamless booking and payment options.
e-Grocery expansion: Expanded to five major cities in Kazakhstan, including Almaty, Astana, Aktobe, Shymkent, and Karaganda.
Hepsiburada in Turkey: Improved performance with 16% GMV growth in Q2, driven by recovery in retail and company-specific initiatives.
Payments business: TPV up 21%, revenue up 16%, and net income up 19% in Q2. Strong volume growth and profitability.
Marketplace: GMV up 15%, revenue up 25%, and net income up 13% in Q2. Excluding smartphones, e-commerce growth was 31%.
Fintech: Origination up 17%, revenue up 21%, and net income up 8% in Q2. Deposit growth of 18% year-over-year.
Smartphone registration service: Introduced tools for merchants and consumers to ensure compliance with new smartphone registration regulations.
Banking license acquisition in Turkey: On track to complete in the second half of 2025, enabling new product launches.
High Interest Rates: The company continues to operate in an environment of high interest rates, which impacts the profitability of its Fintech segment and overall financial performance.
Smartphone Registration Regulation: New legislation requiring smartphone registration has temporarily disrupted supply and consumer demand, negatively affecting e-commerce growth in the smartphone category.
E-Grocery Expansion Costs: The rapid expansion of the e-Grocery business into new cities and the establishment of additional logistics centers may increase operational costs and strain resources.
Hepsiburada Losses: The company's investment in Hepsiburada in Turkey has resulted in ongoing losses, which could impact overall profitability.
Take Rate Dilution in Payments: The growth of QR payments, which have a lower take rate, is diluting overall take rates in the payments segment, potentially impacting revenue growth.
Economic and Regulatory Risks in Turkey: The acquisition of a banking license in Turkey and the expansion of operations there expose the company to economic and regulatory risks in a volatile market.
NPL Trends and Cost of Risk: Non-performing loan (NPL) trends have slightly increased, and the cost of risk remains a concern, particularly in the Fintech segment.
Advertising Revenue Dependency: The company's marketplace revenue growth is heavily reliant on advertising revenue, which may not be sustainable in the long term.
e-Grocery Expansion: The company plans to expand its e-Grocery business further in Kazakhstan, adding new dark stores/logistic centers in Astana and Almaty, with two additional centers planned for 2025.
Deposit Growth and Interest Rate Outlook: The company expects continued growth in its fixed-term deposit product, which has already shown significant growth. Management anticipates that high interest rates will eventually decline, benefiting the company’s financial performance.
Kaspi QR Payment Network: The company plans to continue partnering with other financial institutions to expand its Kaspi QR payment network, which has already shown strong growth in transaction volumes.
Domestic Tours Service: The company has launched a new domestic tours service in Kazakhstan and plans to promote and build this business further over the next 12 months.
Marketplace Growth: Despite temporary setbacks in smartphone sales, the company expects strong growth in other e-commerce verticals, such as Beauty and Personal Care and clothing, which are growing at 63% and 54%, respectively.
Advertising Services: The company plans to scale its new advertising tools for merchants, which have already shown strong engagement and revenue growth of 67% in Q2 2025.
Travel Segment Outlook: The company expects continued growth in its travel segment, driven by international tours and the newly launched domestic tours service.
Hepsiburada Acquisition and Banking License in Turkey: The company is on track to complete the acquisition of a banking license in Turkey in the second half of 2025, which will support future growth in the Turkish market.
Capital Returns to Shareholders: The company expects to resume capital returns to shareholders, including dividends and buybacks, starting in 2026, following the completion of its investments in Turkey.
Capital Returns: The company expects to resume capital returns to shareholders in 2026, following investments in international markets, including Turkey. Capital returns may include both dividends and share buybacks, with decisions to be made at the appropriate time.
Capital Returns: The company expects to resume capital returns to shareholders in 2026, following investments in international markets, including Turkey. Capital returns may include both dividends and share buybacks, with decisions to be made at the appropriate time.
The company shows strong growth in key areas like e-Grocery, advertising, and fintech, despite smartphone supply issues. The strategic expansion in Kazakhstan and Turkey, along with plans to resume shareholder returns, are positive indicators. While management avoided specifics on dividends and smartphone supply normalization, the overall sentiment is optimistic, especially with strong performance in non-smartphone segments and advertising growth.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong deposit growth and positive GMV and EBITDA growth, but challenges from high interest rates and a reduced GMV growth outlook. The Q&A reveals underpenetrated opportunities in Kazakhstan, but concerns about funding costs and unclear guidance on smartphone market recovery and capital deployment. These factors balance out to a neutral sentiment.
The earnings call summary highlights several negative factors, including high interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainties, and a new government tax, all impacting profitability. Despite revenue growth, the lack of a share buyback program and increased risks, such as the higher cost of risk and loan-to-deposit ratio, add to the negative outlook. The Q&A further emphasizes macro uncertainties and unclear management responses. These factors, combined with no strategic plan update, suggest a likely negative stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong financial performance with revenue and net income growth, but challenges like regulatory risks, market competition, and operational challenges from the Hepsiburada acquisition. The Q&A reveals management's reluctance to provide concrete financial targets, adding uncertainty. Despite a positive dividend announcement, the lack of a share buyback program and potential integration issues balance out the positives. Overall, the sentiment is neutral due to the blend of strong financials and significant risks.
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