Should You Buy KeyCorp (KEY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
21.630
1 Day change
1.50%
52 Week Range
22.070
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
BUY now. KEY is in a bullish price structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and is trading below most recently raised Wall Street price targets ($23–$25), giving near-term upside despite a slightly negative MACD. For an impatient buyer, the current level (~21.61) is acceptable with the clearest near-term objective being a push through 21.92 (R1) toward 22.37 (R2).
Technical Analysis
Trend is upward based on moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which typically supports continued strength. Momentum is mixed: MACD histogram is slightly negative (-0.0481) but contracting (bearish momentum is fading), while RSI_6 at 62 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). Price is above the pivot (21.196), suggesting buyers still control the tape. Key levels: Support S1 20.472 then S2 20.025; Resistance R1 21.92 then R2 22.367. A clean break above 21.92 improves odds of a fast move toward 22.37; failure would likely retest 21.20/20.47.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from options leans bullish: open interest put/call of 0.76 indicates more call positioning than puts, and volume put/call of 0.48 shows call-heavy trading flow. Implied volatility is elevated (IV percentile 72), implying the market is pricing higher-than-usual uncertainty/premium, which often coincides with stronger speculative activity. Net takeaway: options positioning supports upside bias, though elevated IV suggests the market expects larger moves (in either direction).
Technical Summary
Sell
0
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
1) Wall Street target increases cluster at $24–$25 (TD Cowen, Goldman, Evercore, Barclays raised targets), implying improving outlook. 2) Commentary points to repricing tailwinds/net interest income improvement and larger buyback expectations ($1.3B mentioned by Truist). 3) Pattern-based forecast provided suggests positive drift: +0.89% next week and +4.79% next month expectation from similar setups.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Momentum not perfectly aligned: MACD remains below zero, so upside could be choppy near resistance. 2) Analyst dissent exists: Baird downgraded to Underperform with an $18 target, arguing limited sector upside/valuation. 3) Financial snapshot shows profitability pressure (net income and EPS down sharply YoY), which can cap multiple expansion if it persists. 4) News items provided appear unrelated to KeyCorp (they reference ServiceNow), so there is no clear KEY-specific event catalyst confirmed in the supplied news feed.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue rose to $1.882B (+156.75% YoY), but profitability weakened materially: net income fell to $475M (-270.25% YoY) and EPS to $0.43 (-253.57% YoY). This reads as strong top-line improvement paired with significant earnings compression (either due to one-offs, credit costs, funding costs, or other headwinds). Growth trend: revenue up strongly, earnings trend down—so the quality of the growth is currently mixed.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is mixed but skewing constructive on targets: multiple firms raised price targets into the $23–$25 range (Truist to $23 Hold; TD Cowen to $25 Buy; Goldman to $25 Buy; Evercore to $25 Outperform; Barclays to $24 Equal Weight; Citi to $22 Neutral). The main bearish counterweight is Baird’s downgrade to Underperform with an $18 target, arguing valuation/limited upside for banks in 2026. Wall Street pros: improving NII/NIM tailwinds, potential rotation into regionals, buyback support. Cons: valuation concerns and uneven earnings quality/profitability pressure. Trading behavior checks: Hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral, and no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast KEY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KEY is 23 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KEY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KEY is 23 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 21.310
Low
18
Averages
23
High
25
Current: 21.310
Low
18
Averages
23
High
25
Truist
Brian Foran
Hold
maintain
$22 -> $23
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Truist
Brian Foran
Price Target
$22 -> $23
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Hold
Reason
Truist analyst Brian Foran raised the firm's price target on KeyCorp to $23 from $22 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The firm expects a higher FY26 net interest income with a boost to the annual buyback amount to $1.3B, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
TD Securities
Buy
downgrade
$54 -> $52
2026-01-20
Reason
TD Securities
Price Target
$54 -> $52
2026-01-20
downgrade
Buy
Reason
TD Securities lowered the firm's price target on Keyera to C$52 from C$54 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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