JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.

Overview

The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance with expected growth in NII and card loans, alongside optimistic macroeconomic outlook and strategic investments in technology and AI. Despite some uncertainties, such as credit card APR caps and expense details, the overall sentiment remains positive due to the strategic Apple Card acquisition and focus on long-term growth. The absence of negative surprises and optimistic guidance support a positive stock price movement prediction.

Key Financial Performance

Net Income (Q4 2025) $13 billion, EPS of $4.63, ROTCE of 18%. Includes a $2.2 billion reserve build related to the Apple Card portfolio.

Revenue (Q4 2025) $46.8 billion, up 7% year-on-year. Driven by higher markets revenue, asset management fees, and auto lease income.

Net Income (Full Year 2025) $57.5 billion, EPS of $20.18, ROTCE of 20%. Excludes significant items listed in the footnote.

Revenue (Full Year 2025) $185 billion. Includes contributions from various business segments.

CET1 Ratio (Q4 2025) 14.5%, down 30 basis points from the prior quarter. Impacted by capital distributions and higher RWA.

CCB Net Income (Q4 2025) $3.6 billion ($5.3 billion excluding reserve build for Apple Card portfolio). Revenue of $19.4 billion, up 6% year-on-year. Driven by higher NII on revolving balances and deposit margin.

CIB Net Income (Q4 2025) $7.3 billion. Revenue of $19.4 billion, up 10% year-on-year. Driven by higher revenues in markets, payments, and securities services.

AWM Net Income (Q4 2025) $1.8 billion. Revenue of $6.5 billion, up 13% year-on-year. Driven by growth in management fees, net inflows, and performance fees.

Corporate Net Income (Q4 2025) $307 million. Revenue of $1.5 billion.

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Operating Highlights

Apple Card Portfolio Acquisition: The firm completed the forward purchase commitment of the Apple Card portfolio, contributing $23 billion of standardized RWA and $110 billion of advanced RWA. This is expected to reduce to $30 billion in the near term.

Market Revenue Growth: Revenue increased by 7% year-on-year, driven by higher markets revenue, asset management fees, and auto lease income.

Client Engagement and Deal Activity: Strong client engagement and deal activity are expected in 2026, supported by constructive market dynamics.

Net Income and Revenue: Reported net income of $13 billion for the quarter and $57.5 billion for the full year. Revenue for the quarter was $46.8 billion, up 7% year-on-year.

Consumer and Business Resilience: Consumers and small businesses remain resilient, with debit and credit sales volume up 7% year-on-year.

Expense Growth: 2026 adjusted expense is expected to be about $105 billion, reflecting investments to secure competitive positioning.

Nonbank Financial Institution Lending: The firm is focusing on lending to nonbank financial institutions, with $160 billion of exposure as of Q4 2025. Growth in this area is significant, driven by market dynamics and regulatory pressures.

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Risk or Challenges

Reserve Build for Apple Card Portfolio: The firm reported a reserve build of $2.2 billion related to the forward purchase commitment of the Apple Card portfolio, which contributed to higher RWA and advanced RWA. This elevated level of advanced RWA is expected to reduce but represents a temporary risk to capital ratios.

Nonbank Financial Institution (NBFI) Lending: The firm highlighted significant growth in NBFI lending over the last 7 years, with potential risks tied to fraud or a deep recession that could erode credit enhancements. This area requires careful monitoring due to its novel elements and structural risks.

Expense Growth: The firm expects 2026 adjusted expenses to grow significantly to $105 billion, reflecting investments to remain competitive. This expense growth could pressure margins if revenue growth does not align.

Competitive Environment: The increasingly competitive environment, including from nontraditional competitors, necessitates significant investments to secure market position, posing a strategic execution risk.

Credit Risk in Card Portfolio: The expected 2026 card net charge-off rate is approximately 3.4%, which, while based on favorable delinquency trends, still represents a potential risk if consumer resilience weakens.

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Guidance & Outlook

Revenue Expectations: The company expects NII ex Markets to be about $95 billion in 2026, with total NII projected at approximately $103 billion. Markets NII is expected to increase to about $8 billion due to lower funding costs from anticipated rate cuts.

Expense Projections: 2026 adjusted expenses are expected to be approximately $105 billion, reflecting meaningful growth in both dollar and percentage terms. This growth aligns with opportunities across businesses and competitive positioning.

Loan Growth: Continued loan growth in card is expected, although at a slightly reduced pace compared to the previous year, as the revolve normalization tailwind is behind.

Deposit Growth: Modest firm-wide deposit growth is anticipated for 2026.

Credit Outlook: The 2026 card net charge-off rate is projected to be approximately 3.4%, supported by favorable delinquency trends and consumer resilience.

Market Dynamics and Deal Activity: Strong client engagement and deal activity are expected in 2026, supported by constructive market dynamics and a robust pipeline.

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Shareholder Return Plan

The selected topic was not discussed during the call.

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Key Q&A

Q:What is the company's stance on the stablecoin issue and its potential impact on the banking system?

A:The company acknowledges the risks associated with the creation of a parallel banking system that mimics traditional banking without proper regulation. They emphasize the importance of consumer benefits and technological innovation in the blockchain space. However, they admit the complexity of assessing the risk to banking system deposits and highlight the need for appropriate regulation to avoid threats to business models.

Q:Why is deposit growth relatively muted despite the growth in checking accounts and client investment assets?

A:The muted deposit growth is attributed to a combination of robust franchise growth (1.7 million net new accounts) and the persistence of yield-seeking flows, albeit at lower levels. These flows, along with a slightly lower savings rate, have delayed the expected growth in balance per account.

Q:What are the expectations for fee revenue growth across the businesses?

A:The company is optimistic about investment banking fees and the overall franchise position in wealth and asset management. However, they are cautious about market appreciation drivers due to the strong performance in 2025. They emphasize the importance of long-term investments in the franchise for sustained growth.

Q:What is the company's perspective on balancing efficiency ratio and ROE outputs?

A:The company views efficiency ratio and ROE as outputs of their overall business strategy and capital deployment. They prioritize long-term profitability and investment in the franchise over maintaining constant operating leverage, acknowledging the competitive nature of the industry.

Q:What is the rationale behind the Apple Card acquisition and its integration process?

A:The Apple Card acquisition is seen as an economically compelling transaction and a partnership with a leader in payments innovation. The integration process, expected to take two years, involves embedding Apple's built-for-purpose technology stack into the company's systems, which will enhance user experience and modernization efforts.

Q:What are the potential impacts of credit card APR caps on the industry and the company?

A:The company believes that credit card APR caps would lead to reduced access to credit, especially for subprime borrowers, and negatively impact the economy. While acknowledging the competitive nature of the card ecosystem, they highlight the potential challenges such caps would pose to their business model.

Q:How does the company view the macroeconomic outlook for 2026 and associated risks?

A:The company is optimistic about the short-term macroeconomic environment, citing consumer spending, job availability, and stimulus measures. However, they acknowledge significant geopolitical risks, large deficits, and the need to navigate political and economic challenges.

Q:What are the expectations for balance sheet growth and deposit growth in 2026?

A:The company expects modest growth in card loans (6-7%) and a more tempered outlook for wholesale deposit growth compared to 2025. Consumer deposit growth is anticipated to pick up in the second half of 2026 as balance per account begins to grow again.

Q:What is the company's strategy for growing the Markets business and its NII?

A:The company focuses on building technology, adding research, and improving sales to grow the Markets business. They emphasize that NII is an outcome of their broader strategy and not a direct target, with growth driven by client financing and market conditions.

Q:What is the company's approach to managing expenses and investments, particularly in technology and AI?

A:The company is committed to investing in technology and AI to maintain a competitive edge, with spending expected to increase. They focus on building better payment systems, enhancing personalization, and integrating AI across the company. They emphasize the importance of long-term investments in driving growth and efficiency.

Q:What is the company's perspective on capital requirements and buffers?

A:The company believes that capital requirements should be based on accurate methodologies and not arbitrary targets. They emphasize the importance of a balanced approach to capital, liquidity, and stress testing to ensure system safety. They currently maintain significant excess capital to navigate risks and opportunities.

Q:What is the outlook for loan growth across different categories?

A:The company expects modest growth in traditional C&I loans and continued growth in card loans. They are optimistic about their expansion strategies and client engagement, which are expected to drive loan growth in 2026.

Q:What is the company's view on wholesale credit quality and charge-offs?

A:The company notes that wholesale charge-offs have been at low levels and are normalizing. They observe a slight increase in downgrades but do not see any significant concerns. They emphasize that charge-offs are largely provisioned and reflect a return to through-the-cycle levels.

Q:What is the company's strategy for growth in the Asset and Wealth Management (AWM) business?

A:The company is investing in hiring advisers and bankers, product innovation, and client engagement to drive growth in AWM. They are optimistic about the franchise's position and its ability to sustain strong flows and margins.

Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses

A:Management avoided providing direct answers or clarity on the following topics: 1. Specific details on the potential impact of credit card APR caps, citing limited information and the unconventional nature of the proposal. 2. Precise breakdown of the $9 billion increase in expenses, particularly in technology and AI spending, beyond general themes of investment and growth. 3. Detailed expectations for balance sheet growth and deposit growth, with only broad trends and factors discussed. 4. Specific plans or contingencies related to the stablecoin issue and its potential impact on the banking system.

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Earnings Word Cloud

The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call

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The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture. Financial performance and market strategy are stable, but concerns about the labor market, credit cycle risks, and unclear management responses regarding NBFI exposure dampen sentiment. While the company maintains a strong financial position and positive consumer activity, uncertainties around regulatory changes and economic conditions persist. The lack of guidance on shareholder returns and potential risks in NBFI lending further contribute to a neutral outlook.

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