Should You Buy Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
21.370
1 Day change
0.52%
52 Week Range
23.800
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/29
JCAP is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The near-term technical setup is bearish (negative and worsening MACD, price below key support/pivot), and pattern-based odds point to further downside over the next month. While fundamentals and Wall Street targets are positive, the timing is unfavorable without a clear reversal signal or Intellectia buy trigger.
Technical Analysis
Trend/tone is bearish to weak: MACD histogram is -0.173 and negatively expanding (downside momentum building). RSI_6 at 30.65 is near oversold but not showing a clear reversal signal. Moving averages are converging (no strong trend support). Price (21.065) is below the pivot (22.14) and also below S1 (21.279), suggesting broken support and increased risk of a move toward S2 (20.747). Nearby resistance levels are 22.14 (pivot) then 23.00 (R1). Additionally, the similar-candlestick-pattern model implies a modest negative next day/week and a materially negative next month (-8.39%), aligning with the bearish momentum. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Positive Catalysts
showed strong revenue growth (+33.45% YoY) and EPS growth (+15.79% YoY), supporting the bullish fundamental narrative. No negative recent news headlines were flagged in the past week.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and below the pivot, raising the likelihood of further downside before any rebound. Pattern-based forecast indicates elevated risk of a meaningful decline over the next month (-8.39%). No fresh news catalysts in the last week to reverse sentiment quickly. Hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity (no supportive flow signal). No recent congress trading data available, and no politician/influential-figure transaction data was provided to suggest a confidence signal.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue increased to 103,233,000 (+33.45% YoY), indicating strong top-line growth. Net income increased to 38,362,000 (+4.02% YoY), showing profitability growth but at a slower pace than revenue (some margin/expense pressure implied). EPS rose to 0.66 (+15.79% YoY), a solid per-share growth rate. Overall: fundamentals are improving, but the market is currently pricing near-term weakness technically.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is upward/positive: multiple Outperform reiterations with price target increases (Keefe Bruyette to $28 from $22; Citizens JMP to $26 from $23; latest reiteration keeps $28). Wall Street pros: strong deployment capacity from low leverage, improving credit-cycle normalization, industry supply/supportive pricing/yields, and efficiency advantages. Cons: despite bullish targets, the stock’s current tape is weak and lacks a near-term trigger; without a technical reversal or trading signal, upside may take time to materialize.
Wall Street analysts forecast JCAP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JCAP is 27.25 USD with a low forecast of 26 USD and a high forecast of 29 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast JCAP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JCAP is 27.25 USD with a low forecast of 26 USD and a high forecast of 29 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 21.260
Low
26
Averages
27.25
High
29
Current: 21.260
Low
26
Averages
27.25
High
29
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
maintain
$28
AI Analysis
2025-12-23
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$28
AI Analysis
2025-12-23
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette is positive on shares of Jefferson Capital heading into 2026. The firm reiterates an Outperform rating on the name with a $28 price target. Jefferson is well positioned to benefit from a continued normalization in the U.S. and international credit cycle, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Keefe is "constructive" on industry fundamentals as supply increases and believes the company is "industry-leading cash efficiency ratio should continue to drive strong returns."
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
maintain
$22 -> $28
2025-11-17
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$22 -> $28
2025-11-17
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Jefferson Capital to $28 from $22 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Jefferson Capital remains well-positioned to increase deployments given low leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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