Humana Inc. (HUM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call reveals a mix of positive and cautious elements. The company shows strong financial performance and operational efficiency, with promising plans for cost savings and strategic acquisitions. However, conservative guidance and lack of share repurchase plans for 2025, combined with unclear management responses in the Q&A, temper enthusiasm. The market reaction is expected to be neutral, considering the balance of positive growth initiatives and cautious financial outlook.
Key Financial Performance
Adjusted EPS for 2025 $17.14, in line with expectations and above the initial guidance of approximately $16.25. The increase was due to higher-than-planned investments to accelerate transformation and position the company for the future.
Insurance Segment Benefit Ratio for 2025 90.4%, slightly better than guidance. This includes a benefit set aside for a potential Doc Fix in 2025, which was invested in areas like network management and administrative costs for technology and other future-oriented areas.
Individual Medicare Advantage (MA) Membership Growth for 2025 Approximately 1 million members or 20% growth year-over-year. Retention rate improved by over 500 basis points year-over-year. Growth was driven by switchers from competitor plans and higher lifetime value channels.
Stars Headwind for 2026 Approximately $3.5 billion net impact, including individual and group MA. The headwind is larger due to membership and revenue growth, with 45% of members in 4-plus star plans for 2026 and a 25% higher membership base.
Expected Individual MA Pre-Tax Margin for 2026 Doubling year-over-year when normalized for Stars. This is supported by clinical excellence and operating efficiency efforts.
Consolidated Operating Cost Ratio for 2026 Significant improvement expected due to operating leverage from membership and revenue growth, tactical cost-cutting, and transformation efforts.
Capital Requirements for Membership Growth (2024-2026) Despite a 40% premium growth, statutory capital requirements will increase by less than 20%. Capital optimization efforts offset over $3 billion of growth in capital requirements.
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Operating Highlights
Membership Growth: Grew by approximately 1 million members or 20% in AEP. Retention rate improved over 500 basis points year-over-year. Over 70% of new sales were switchers from competitor plans, with 70% of new sales in contracts with 4-star or better ratings.
Medicare Advantage (MA): Anticipates individual MA membership growth of approximately 25% in 2026. New members expected to be accretive to the enterprise in 2026. Pricing results in a doubling of individual MA margin year-over-year, normalized for Stars.
Medicaid Expansion: Medicaid now spans 13 states, including Georgia and Texas, which are anticipated to launch next year.
Strategic Acquisition: Plans to announce a strategic acquisition in the primary care space soon.
Operational Capacity: Improved onboarding processes, reduced complaints to Medicare year-over-year, improved transactional Net Promoter Score, and increased completion rate for health risk assessments.
Efficiency Improvements: Significant improvement in consolidated operating cost ratio for 2026 driven by membership growth, cost-cutting, and transformation efforts. Includes outsourcing, process simplification, and leveraging technology.
Stars Program: Efforts to strengthen Stars program progressing as anticipated. Confident in returning to Top Quartile Stars results by 2028.
Capital Optimization: Optimized legal entity structures, refined reinsurance arrangements, and sold noncore assets to fund membership growth and maintain credit ratings.
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Risk or Challenges
Medicare Advantage funding environment: The company acknowledges concerns around the advance rate notice and the funding environment for Medicare Advantage. If the funding environment cannot fully support the benefit structure, the company will need to adapt, which could impact operations and member benefits.
Stars Ratings headwind: The company faces a significant Stars Ratings headwind for 2026, with a net impact of approximately $3.5 billion. This is due to lower-than-expected contract diversification and provider offsets, as well as a higher retention of members on lower-rated contracts.
Operational capacity for growth: While the company is confident in its ability to absorb growth, there is a risk of operational strain due to the rapid increase in membership, which could impact the quality of service and care.
Capital requirements for membership growth: The company anticipates significant capital requirements to fund membership growth in 2026, despite efforts to optimize capital efficiency. This could strain financial resources and impact other strategic initiatives.
Economic uncertainties and fiscal pressures: Medicare Advantage sits at the intersection of U.S. fiscal pressures and a popular program for seniors. Balancing these forces could create economic uncertainties that impact funding and operations.
Dependence on Stars Ratings for financial performance: The company’s financial performance is heavily dependent on achieving high Stars Ratings. Any failure to improve these ratings could adversely affect margins and revenue.
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Guidance & Outlook
Membership Growth: Humana anticipates individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership growth of approximately 25% for the full year 2026. Over 70% of new sales were switchers from competitor plans, and 75% of new sales were from higher lifetime value channels.
Margin Progression: The company expects new members to be accretive to the enterprise in 2026. Humana anticipates doubling individual MA pre-tax margin in 2026, normalizing for Stars. Adjusted for Stars, margins are expected to progress in 2026.
Stars Performance: Humana aims to return to Top Quartile Stars results by 2028. Efforts to strengthen the Stars program are progressing as planned, and the company will provide additional visibility into final operating results next quarter.
Operational Efficiency: Humana expects significant improvement in its consolidated operating cost ratio for 2026, driven by membership and revenue growth, tactical cost-cutting, and transformation efforts. These include outsourcing, process standardization, and leveraging technology and automation.
Capital Allocation: The company plans to grow its Medicaid and CenterWell footprint, with Medicaid expanding to 13 states, including Georgia and Texas, anticipated to launch next year. Humana also expects to announce a strategic acquisition in the primary care space soon.
Funding and Capital Efficiency: Despite expected premium growth of 40% from 2024 to 2026, statutory capital requirements will increase by less than 20%. Capital optimization efforts will offset over $3 billion of growth in capital requirements, ensuring funding for 2026 membership growth and select M&A opportunities while maintaining debt-to-cap levels.
Earnings Potential by 2028: Humana remains committed to unlocking the earnings potential of the business by 2028, including delivering a stable and compelling MA margin.
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Shareholder Return Plan
The selected topic was not discussed during the call.
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Key Q&A
Q:Could you expand on the level of earnings that can be driven purely outside of the MA underwriting and contrast the MA underwriting and margins in isolation?
A:Earnings outside of MA underwriting include significant tailwinds from CenterWell Pharmacy due to new membership, increased patients at CenterWell PCO, and higher home health volumes. Individual MA margins are expected to be just below breakeven in 2026. Continuing members are disproportionately impacted by the Stars headwind, while new members have similar margins due to lower acquisition costs and higher MLR. Overall, margins for existing and new cohorts are consistent but for different reasons.
Q:How should we think about the typical progress in margins over a 3- to 5-year period for new members?
A:Margins typically improve substantially from year 1 to year 2 due to a more normalized marketing load and better medical benefit ratios. Improvements continue through years 3 to 5 as members are onboarded, coding improves, medical management programs take effect, and members are paneled to value-based partners.
Q:What are the big deltas in expectations for 2026 versus thoughts on Investor Day, and what part of guidance is the most conservative?
A:The biggest difference is the embedded conservatism in the numbers, particularly in MRA and cost trends. Guidance assumes higher cost trends for 2026 due to the lack of Doc Fix in 2025 and its inclusion in 2026. The guidance is more conservative overall, with broader haircuts applied to assumptions.
Q:How did the 140,000 new D-SNP members compare to expectations, and what is their profile?
A:The absolute number of new D-SNP members exceeded expectations due to overall growth, but as a percentage, it was slightly lower. Most duals are on HMO products and tend to come in paneled to value-based partners, unlike the core membership.
Q:Has anything changed in the ultimate margin profile of the larger book of business as you look out to 2028?
A:The growth in membership provides a significant jump toward achieving the 2028 target. Operating cost ratio improvements are driven by operating leverage from membership and revenue growth. Cost-cutting efforts are on track, and the company is adapting to the funding environment to maintain progress toward 2028 goals.
Q:What is the impact of the 2027 rate notice and the Top Quartile Star Ratings on the 2028 margin profile?
A:The 2027 rate notice came in below medical cost trend, but the company will adjust to the final rate notice. Progress on Stars is positive, with programs starting earlier in the year and better targeting using data. The 2028 margin profile reflects Stars at the 75th percentile, and the company is confident in achieving its margin expectations.
Q:What are the expectations for the transformation initiative's impact on pretax earnings from 2025 to 2028?
A:The transformation initiative is expected to improve pretax earnings by $1.6 billion to $2 billion by 2028. Significant progress is expected in 2027 and 2028, with deliberate cost-cutting efforts and continued growth in CenterWell clinics and strategic initiatives.
Q:How much of the 2025 investment spend is run-rating into 2026, and are there plans for further investment spend?
A:Approximately $550 million was spent in 2025, with no current plans for incremental investments in 2026. However, the company is not cutting back on tech investments and will be transparent if additional investments are made.
Q:What is the impact of the higher level of bounce-back membership recapture, and is the 160 basis point impact from v28 still accurate?
A:Bounce-back members are primarily from recent years, and the 160 basis point impact from v28 remains accurate.
Q:What is driving the change in EPS seasonality this year, and are there any early comments on OEP?
A:The change in EPS seasonality is driven by the IRA and aggravated by the Stars headwind. Early indications from OEP suggest upside potential, but it is too early to provide specific numbers.
Q:What is the company's approach to 2027 bids and balancing margin and membership growth?
A:The company will have sufficient visibility into member performance by April and May to adjust bids. The focus is on achieving a stable and compelling margin while retaining as many members as possible, with less emphasis on new member growth.
Q:Does the company have outsized exposure to the 2027 rate notice, and what is the status of statutory capital requirements?
A:The company does not have outsized exposure to the 2027 rate notice, with most of the industry impacted around the mean. Most redomestication work has been completed, but opportunities remain in areas like reinsurance to improve capital efficiency.
Q:What is the proportion of MA members in value-based contracts, and how is this expected to change?
A:Approximately one-third of MA members are in full risk, one-third in other value-based models, and one-third in non-value-based or basic pay-for-performance models. The proportion decreases with new members but increases as they are paneled to value-based partners over time.
Q:What is the impact of value-based care financial terms on MLR for 2026, and what portion of 2025 investments were in medical costs?
A:There are no significant changes in value-based care financial terms impacting MLR for 2026. Approximately 90% of the 2025 investments were in medical costs.
Q:Are there any meaningful changes to the provider contracting strategy to minimize friction?
A:The company has improved prior authorization processes, reduced friction, and maintained efficient payment rates to providers. Efforts are ongoing to enhance provider relationships and reduce abrasion, recognizing their role as the face of Humana to members.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing specific details on the growth rates of PPO versus HMO plans, the exact percentage of new members gained from competitor exits, and the duration of bounce-back membership recapture. Additionally, they did not disclose specific financial terms of value-based contracts or the exact impact of the 2027 rate notice on the company.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
AEP retention
Advantage intersection
Advantage member
CTMs health
CenterWell footprint
Conference Instructions
Day recognition
Efforts Stars
Enterprise today
Georgia Texas
HRAs Star
Humana Conference
Insurance role
Martin
Medicare Advantage
NPV
QA
area
capacity
channel
color
competitor plan
complaint Medicare
concern
economics
environment funding
funding environment
health care
health risk
lifetime value
member enterprise
member year
potential Investor
rate notice
risk assessment
service
switcher
HUM Transcript
Humana Inc. (HUM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown2-11
The earnings call reveals a mix of positive and cautious elements. The company shows strong financial performance and operational efficiency, with promising plans for cost savings and strategic acquisitions. However, conservative guidance and lack of share repurchase plans for 2025, combined with unclear management responses in the Q&A, temper enthusiasm. The market reaction is expected to be neutral, considering the balance of positive growth initiatives and cautious financial outlook.
Humana Inc. (HUM) Presents at 7th Annual Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference Transcript
Neutral11-19
Humana Inc. (HUM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive11-5
The earnings call highlights several positive developments, including a raised EPS outlook, better-than-expected MA membership retention, and successful Medicaid expansion. CenterWell Pharmacy's growth and strategic capital deployment further bolster the outlook. While management avoided specific guidance, optimistic expectations for margin doubling by 2026 and strategic focus on high-value members suggest a positive trajectory. The Q&A section did not reveal significant negative trends, supporting a positive sentiment. Overall, the company's strategic initiatives and financial performance indicate a likely positive stock price movement in the short term.
Humana Inc. (HUM) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive7-30
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate positive sentiments overall, with strong financial performance, growth in membership, and strategic investments in AI and operational efficiency. The reaffirmed EPS guidance and CenterWell's outperformance contribute positively. However, concerns about home health rule changes and ongoing litigation slightly temper the outlook. The lack of market cap data limits prediction specificity, but overall sentiment suggests a positive stock price movement in the near term.
HUM Slides
HUM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
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