Should You Buy Hanover Bancorp Inc (HNVR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
23.110
1 Day change
-3.53%
52 Week Range
26.930
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/29
BUY for a beginner long-term investor. HNVR is in a constructive uptrend (bullish MA stack), Wall Street has an Overweight with a higher target ($27), and fundamentals show steady top-line growth despite slightly softer earnings. With no strong negative news and no unusual insider/hedge activity, the risk/reward favors starting a position now (with room for upside toward the mid-$20s). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 indicates an established uptrend. MACD histogram is above zero (0.0634) but positively contracting, implying upside momentum is present but cooling. RSI(6) ~55.3 is neutral (not overbought), which supports a reasonable buy-now entry rather than waiting for a pullback. Key levels: Pivot 23.614 (price 23.73 is slightly above pivot). Near-term resistance: 24.191 (R1) then 24.547 (R2). Support: 23.037 (S1) then 22.681 (S2).
Options Data
Positive Catalysts
Analyst support: Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight and raised PT to $27, citing improving NIM, fee revenue tailwinds, and expense discipline driving core ROTCE toward ~11%.
Technical setup: bullish moving average alignment suggests trend-following demand.
Pattern-based forecast provided: estimated 19.85% chance of a meaningful move over the next month (per similar candlestick-pattern analysis).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Profitability slightly softer YoY: 2025/Q3 net income (-0.79% YoY) and EPS (-2.08% YoY) declined despite higher revenue.
Momentum cooling: MACD is still positive but contracting, which can precede consolidation.
No near-term news catalysts in the past week to accelerate upside immediately.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $17.655M (+7.18% YoY), indicating continued top-line expansion. However, net income slipped to $3.403M (-0.79% YoY) and EPS to $0.47 (-2.08% YoY), suggesting margin/expense/credit factors modestly pressured earnings. Overall: growth is positive on revenue, but earnings are currently flat-to-slightly down—consistent with a steady, not explosive, compounding profile.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: positive. On 2025-12-10, Piper Sandler raised the price target to $27 from $25 and maintained an Overweight rating. Wall Street pro view (pros): lower-risk balance sheet, improving net interest margin outlook, better fee revenues (loan sale gains), and expense discipline supporting higher returns on tangible common equity. Cons: execution depends on NIM improvement and sustained discipline; recent YoY EPS/net income were slightly down, so the thesis relies on forward improvement. Trading/flow checks: hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data and no reported politician/influential-figure trades in the provided data.
Wall Street analysts forecast HNVR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HNVR is 27 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HNVR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HNVR is 27 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 23.950
Low
27
Averages
27
High
27
Current: 23.950
Low
27
Averages
27
High
27
Piper Sandler
Overweight
upgrade
$25 -> $27
AI Analysis
2025-12-10
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$25 -> $27
AI Analysis
2025-12-10
upgrade
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Hanover Bancorp to $27 from $25 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company has a lower-risk balance sheet and the firm expects core profitability to steadily march higher in coming quarters as the net interest margin improves, fee revenues benefit from higher loan sale gains and expense discipline helps to push the core ROTCE to about 11%.
Hovde Group
Market Perform
initiated
$24
2025-08-13
Reason
Hovde Group
Price Target
$24
2025-08-13
initiated
Market Perform
Reason
Hovde Group initiated coverage of Hanover Bancorp with a Market Perform rating and $24 price target.
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