Should You Buy Herbalife Ltd (HLF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
16.980
1 Day change
2.97%
52 Week Range
17.670
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/29
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who doesn’t want to wait for a cleaner entry. Despite a broadly constructive moving-average setup and improving Wall Street tone, near-term technical momentum is weakening (MACD negative/expanding) and pattern-based probabilities point to downside over the next week/month. I would HOLD and only turn constructive on a dip closer to support (~$15.85) or if price reclaims the pivot (~$16.66) with improving momentum.
Technical Analysis
Price: $16.40 (closed), down -2.66% on the day.
Trend/structure:
- Moving averages: Bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader trend has improved vs. longer-term averages.
- MACD: Histogram -0.00255 and negatively expanding = bearish/weakening momentum in the near term.
- RSI(6): 52.98 (neutral), no clear oversold/overbought edge.
Key levels (near-term):
- Pivot: 16.661 (price below pivot = short-term caution)
- Support: S1 15.849, S2 15.347
- Resistance: R1 17.472, R2 17.974
Probabilistic trend (pattern analogs):
- Next day: +0.19% (slightly up)
- Next week: -2.65% (down bias)
- Next month: -3.09% (down bias)
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment snapshot (2025-11-19 data):
- Put/Call (Open Interest) = 0.73: more calls than puts outstanding → moderately bullish positioning.
- Put/Call (Volume) = 0.44: call volume dominated on the day → bullish near-term sentiment.
- Implied Vol (30d) 62.77 vs Historical Vol 47.76: options are pricing elevated movement vs recent realized volatility.
- IV percentile 28.51 / IV rank 17.95: IV is not extreme relative to its own history (not “peak fear”).
- Volume vs 30-day avg: 28.01% (below average), so sentiment read is positive but not supported by unusually heavy activity.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
- Wall Street tone has improved since late Nov: upgrades/Buy initiations (Argus upgrade; Citi Buy; Maxim initiated Buy) suggest the turnaround narrative is gaining traction.
- Management/turnaround framing: multiple analysts cite recovery path, distributor enthusiasm, and a more sustainable model post-regulatory changes.
- Upcoming event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 (After Hours) could act as a catalyst if sales growth/guide confirms recovery.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Near-term technical momentum is weakening (MACD negative/expanding) and the stock is below the pivot (~$16.66), raising the odds of testing support (~$15.85).
- Earnings quality trend: latest quarter showed revenue up but profits down (margin/NI/EPS pressure).
- Analyst split remains wide: Mizuho Neutral with $13 target (below current price) and BofA Underperform with $8 target indicate meaningful skepticism.
- No supportive near-term news flow in the last week; lacks an immediate event-driven reason to buy today.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $1.2737B, +2.69% YoY (modest top-line growth).
- Net income: $43.2M, -8.86% YoY.
- EPS: $0.42, -10.64% YoY.
- Gross margin: 77.69%, down 0.83% YoY.
Takeaway: sales are stabilizing/improving, but profitability is still trending down YoY, which makes the long-term case more dependent on successful execution of the turnaround and margin recovery.
Positioning/flows checks:
- Hedge funds: Neutral (no significant trend last quarter).
- Insiders: Neutral (no significant trend last month).
- Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend (last ~2 months): broadly improving targets and more bullish coverage, but still polarized.
- Maxim (2026-01-06): Initiated Buy, PT $20 (bullish turnaround thesis).
- Citi (2025-12-12): Buy, PT raised to $17 from $11 (increased confidence in hitting 2026 sales growth targets).
- Argus (2025-11-26): Upgraded to Buy, PT $15 (values the stock on low multiple; expects mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 after declines).
- Mizuho (2026-01-08): Neutral, PT raised to $13 from $11 (acknowledges recovery but cautious on valuation recovery and macro/competition).
- BofA (2025-12-19): Underperform, PT $8 (bearish outlier; skepticism on fundamentals).
Wall Street pros: turnaround gaining credibility; improving distributor engagement and expectations for renewed volume growth into 2026.
Wall Street cons: profitability still soft, macro/competition pressure, and meaningful disagreement on fair value (targets range ~$8 to $20).
Wall Street analysts forecast HLF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HLF is 14.6 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HLF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HLF is 14.6 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 16.490
Low
8
Averages
14.6
High
20
Current: 16.490
Low
8
Averages
14.6
High
20
Mizuho
Neutral
maintain
$11 -> $13
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
Mizuho
Price Target
$11 -> $13
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Herbalife to $13 from $11 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the food producers space as part of its 2026 outlook. Healthy living growth should outperform in 2026, but concerns for competition have compressed valuations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho believes weak fundamentals and elevated macro uncertainty "suggest limited prospects for a broad valuation recovery."
Maxim
Anthony Vendetti
Buy
initiated
$20
2026-01-06
Reason
Maxim
Anthony Vendetti
Price Target
$20
2026-01-06
initiated
Buy
Reason
Maxim analyst Anthony Vendetti initiated coverage of Herbalife with a Buy rating and $20 price target. A turnaround is underway, enabling Herbalife to solidify its status as a leading provider of health and wellness products, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Maxim believes the U.S. regulatory concerns are resolved, and the resulting changes, including closer alignment of distributor compensation with sales to end users, have established a more sustainable business model.
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