Should You Buy Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
23.680
1 Day change
-12.00%
52 Week Range
28.740
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy for a beginner long-term investor right now. The stock is in a strong bullish trend with broad Wall Street Buy/Outperform support and very bullish options positioning (very low put/call ratios). Even though it’s technically overbought (RSI ~88) and therefore could pull back short-term, the setup still favors owning it now for a long-term copper/gold growth story (Copper World ramp + improving sentiment). No politician/congress trading signal is present to contradict the thesis.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish.
- Price is above key moving averages with a strong alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which typically confirms an established uptrend.
- MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.307), reinforcing upward momentum.
- RSI(6) is extremely high (88.33), signaling the stock is overbought and prone to short-term mean reversion/pullbacks.
- Levels: Pivot 24.536. Resistance: R1 26.474 (cleared), R2 27.672 (nearby). With the close around 27.39, the stock is pressing into the next resistance zone.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Pattern-based expectation provided: modeled odds suggest mild positive drift near-term and stronger 1-month bias (+6.01% expected over a month in the provided pattern set), consistent with the uptrend.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bullish.
- Put/Call (Open Interest) = 0.13 and Put/Call (Volume) = 0.16 are extremely low, indicating calls dominate and traders are positioned for upside.
- Implied volatility (30D) ~57.56 vs historical volatility ~59.31: IV is roughly in line with realized, not screaming “overpriced,” but still indicates a high-volatility stock.
- IV Percentile 68.4: volatility is elevated relative to its past year range, consistent with an active/uncertain backdrop (commodities + project catalysts + earnings ahead).
- Open interest is large (call OI 32,609 vs put OI 4,348) and today’s OI is above the 30-day average (104.59%), supporting continued engagement on the bullish side.
- Volume today is below the 30-day average (43.7% of avg), so positioning looks more like existing bullish exposure than a single-day speculative spike.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-23 pre-market could be a catalyst if operational/commodity tailwinds show through.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
can cause a large move either direction in a high-IV name.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $346.8M (-28.61% YoY) — indicates top-line pressure.
- Net income: $222.4M (+346.93% YoY) and EPS: $0.56 (+330.77% YoY) — strong bottom-line improvement, but the divergence vs revenue suggests non-operational factors and/or pricing/one-time items may be contributing.
- Gross margin: 18.83 (-34.57% YoY) — profitability at the gross level weakened year-over-year, a key item to watch for sustainability.
Next catalyst check: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23 (pre-market), EPS est. 0.31.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: decisively improving and bullish.
- Multiple Buy/Outperform reiterations and target hikes/initiations from late 2025 into Jan 2026.
- Notable changes:
- 2026-01-26 Scotiabank raised PT to C$37 (Outperform).
- 2026-01-22 TD resumed with Buy, PT C$43 (up from C$17).
- 2026-01-08 UBS initiated Buy, PT C$34.50.
- Jefferies keeps Buy and calls Hudbay a top copper pick.
Wall Street pros view (pros): diversified copper exposure, Copper World ramp/growth pathway, strong free cash flow narrative, multiple de-risking/project catalysts.
Wall Street cons view (cons): copper valuation/macro caution and demand sensitivity; execution risk around projects; commodity-driven earnings variability.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available (and no politician activity provided).
Wall Street analysts forecast HBM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HBM is 20.63 USD with a low forecast of 17.24 USD and a high forecast of 24.79 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HBM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HBM is 20.63 USD with a low forecast of 17.24 USD and a high forecast of 24.79 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 26.910
Low
17.24
Averages
20.63
High
24.79
Current: 26.910
Low
17.24
Averages
20.63
High
24.79
National Bank
Outperform -> Sector Perform
downgrade
$40
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
National Bank
Price Target
$40
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Sector Perform
Reason
National Bank downgraded Hudbay Minerals to Sector Perform from Outperform with a C$40 price target.
Scotiabank
Orest Wowkodaw
maintain
$31 -> $37
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Scotiabank
Orest Wowkodaw
Price Target
$31 -> $37
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Reason
Scotiabank analyst Orest Wowkodaw raised the firm's price target on Hudbay Minerals to C$37 from C$31 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HBM
