Stock Price Prediction

Analysis and Insights

To predict the stock price of Granite Construction (GVA) for the next trading week, we analyze both fundamental and technical factors.

Fundamental Analysis:

1. Analyst Sentiment:
   D.A. Davidson analyst Brent Thielman has maintained a Buy rating on GVA with a price target of $108.00, while the current price is $86.87. The analyst consensus is a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $108.00.

2. Recent Contracts and Growth:
   GVA has secured a $97M contract for a military infrastructure project in Guam, supporting its growth strategy in the Pacific region. Additionally, the company reported strong Q4 2024 results, with revenue increasing 14% year-over-year to $4 billion and gross profit up 44% to $573 million.

3. 2025 Guidance:
   GVA expects revenue growth of $4.2B-$4.4B for 2025, supported by strong market conditions and strategic investments.

Technical Analysis:

1. Price Trends:
   GVA is currently trading at $77.87, with a 52-week high of $84.57 and a 52-week low of $55.57. The stock has been in a bearish trend recently but shows signs of potential reversal.

2. Technical Indicators:

   • RSI (14-period): 42.17, indicating the stock is oversold and due for a bounce.
   • MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line, suggesting bearish momentum, but the histogram is improving.
   • Fibonacci Levels: The stock is trading above the pivot point of $73.44, with resistance at $80.65 and support at $66.23.

3. Volume and Momentum:
   Recent trading volume has been moderate, with no significant spikes, indicating stable investor sentiment.

Price Prediction and Recommendation:

Based on the analysis, GVA is expected to trade between $75.95 and $84.57 next week. The stock may experience a short-term rebound due to oversold conditions and positive news, but the overall trend remains bearish.

Recommendation:
Hold or Wait for Further Confirmation before entering a long position. If the stock breaks above $80.65, it could signal a bullish reversal. Otherwise, caution is advised due to the mixed technical signals.