Should I Buy GSM? GSM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.880

1 Day change

-0.20%

52 Week Range

5.740

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

GSM is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k. Despite some bullish longer-term moving-average structure and very call-skewed options activity, the latest quarter (2025/Q3) shows sharp revenue decline and a swing to losses, and momentum indicators (MACD) are still deteriorating. With no proprietary buy signals today and no positive news catalyst, the risk/reward is unattractive to initiate a new long position now.

Technical Analysis

Price (~4.885) is sitting just above near-term support (S1 ~4.865) and below the pivot (~5.088), meaning the stock is currently in a weaker part of its range. Trend/momentum is mixed: the moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend is still constructive, but the MACD histogram is negative and expanding (-0.0297), indicating downside momentum is building. RSI(6) ~40.7 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), so there isn’t a strong mean-reversion buy setup. Key levels: Support: 4.865 then 4.726. Resistance: 5.088 then 5.311. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning is notably bullish/“risk-on”: open interest put-call ratio of 0.58 and an extremely low volume put-call ratio of 0.01 (calls dominating today’s flow). Options activity is elevated (today’s volume far above the 30-day average), which often signals speculation or positioning around upcoming events. However, implied volatility is very high (30D IV ~76.8; IV percentile ~85), so the options market is also pricing in large potential moves—this supports “trader interest,” but it does not confirm a durable long-term bottom for the stock.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

indicates the broader trend hasn’t fully broken down. Next earnings is scheduled for 2026-02-25 (after hours), which can act as a catalyst if pricing/demand improves.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Fundamentals are weakening: 2025/Q3 showed a steep revenue decline and a move to a net loss, reinforcing concerns about slower recovery in product pricing and demand. Momentum is currently bearish (negative, expanding MACD). No supportive news flow in the last week. Pattern-based projection provided indicates downside bias over the next month (-6.28% next month).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to $311.7M (-28.1% YoY). Net income dropped to -$12.8M (-168.1% YoY), and EPS fell to -$0.07 (-170% YoY). Gross margin declined to 35.72% (-2.96% YoY). Overall: clear deterioration in growth and profitability trends versus last year, which is a poor setup for a long-term beginner entry right now.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst action: On 2025-11-11, B. Riley kept a Buy rating but cut the price target to $6 from $8 after Q3, citing a slower-than-expected recovery in pricing and demand. Wall Street pro view (from the provided data): the upside case is a cyclical recovery and rebound in pricing/demand (hence the maintained Buy), while the key con is that the expected recovery is taking longer and financial results are weakening. Trading trends show hedge funds and insiders are neutral, and there is no recent congress trading data indicating influential buying support.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GSM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GSM is 6 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 4.890

Low

Averages

High

Current: 4.890

Low

Averages

High

B. Riley

Buy

downgrade

$8 -> $6

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

Reason

B. Riley

Price Target

$8 -> $6

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

downgrade

Buy

Reason

B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on Ferroglobe to $6 from $8 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm "meaningfully" lowered estimates post the Q3 report to reflect a slower than expected recovery in product pricing and demand.

B. Riley

Buy

downgrade

$9 -> $8

2025-05-09

Reason

B. Riley

Price Target

$9 -> $8

2025-05-09

downgrade

Buy

Reason

B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on Ferroglobe to $8 from $9 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the Q1 report. The EBITDA miss was primarily driven by lower sales and realizations in the silicon metal and manganese-based alloys segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that despite the soft Q1 results, Ferroglobe maintained its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance.

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GSM Should I Buy

GSM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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