GO Valuation

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

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18.215

-0.325(-1.753%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

GO Relative Valuation

GO's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, GO is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) is now in the Undervalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 22.26 is considered Undervalued compared with the five-year average of 28.49. The fair price of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) is between 20.54 to 30.47 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 18.21 USD , Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is Undervalued By 11.34%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

20.54-30.47

Current Price：18.21

11.34%

Undervalued

22.26

Trailing

Forward

12.48

EV/EBITDA

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) has a current EV/EBITDA of 12.48. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 17.24. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 8.38, Undervalued between 8.38 and 12.81, Fairly Valued between 21.67 and 12.81, Overvalued between 21.67 and 26.10, and Strongly Overvalued above 26.10. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 12.48 falls within the Undervalued range.

37.89

EV/EBIT

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) has a current EV/EBIT of 37.89. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 35.20. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 22.56, Undervalued between 22.56 and 28.88, Fairly Valued between 41.53 and 28.88, Overvalued between 41.53 and 47.85, and Strongly Overvalued above 47.85. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 37.89 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.37

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) has a current PS of 0.37. The 5-year average PS is 0.74. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.17, Undervalued between 0.17 and 0.45, Fairly Valued between 1.03 and 0.45, Overvalued between 1.03 and 1.32, and Strongly Overvalued above 1.32. The current Forward PS of 0.37 falls within the Undervalued range.

8.52

P/OCF

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) has a current P/OCF of 8.52. The 5-year average P/OCF is 14.45. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 4.64, Undervalued between 4.64 and 9.54, Fairly Valued between 19.35 and 9.54, Overvalued between 19.35 and 24.26, and Strongly Overvalued above 24.26. The current Forward P/OCF of 8.52 falls within the Undervalued range.

-34.30

P/FCF

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) has a current P/FCF of -34.30. The 5-year average P/FCF is 42.86. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -225.53, Undervalued between -225.53 and -91.34, Fairly Valued between 177.05 and -91.34, Overvalued between 177.05 and 311.25, and Strongly Overvalued above 311.25. The current Forward P/FCF of -34.30 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.53. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 2.07 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -26.08% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 2.63, the current P/B ratio is about -41.75% higher. Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately -1.43%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 1.01%, the current FCF yield is approximately -241.74% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 1.22% , the current FCF yield is about -217.61% lower.

1.53

P/B

Median3y

2.07

Median5y

2.63

-1.43

FCF Yield

Median3y

1.01

Median5y

1.22

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for GO's competitors is 0.49, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Grocery Outlet Holding Corp Corp (GO) exhibits a P/S ratio of 0.37, which is -23.68% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 4.54%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

GO.O

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of GO decreased by 2.11% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in P/E Change from 139.86 to 223.04.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed 4.54%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of GO in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

4.54%

1.13B → 1.18B

Revenue Growth

-66.13%

1.24 → 0.42

Margin Expansion

59.48%

139.86 → 223.04

P/E Change

-2.11%