Should You Buy Monte Rosa Therapeutics Inc (GLUE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
21.360
1 Day change
1.09%
52 Week Range
25.770
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. GLUE just sold off hard (-8.53% to 21.11) and is showing worsening downside momentum (negative, expanding MACD) while options positioning is heavily put-skewed. With no near-term news catalysts and only limited upside to the latest $22 analyst target, the risk/reward today is not compelling. I would wait for stabilization and a reclaim of the 23.24 pivot area before buying.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum is mixed-to-bearish in the near term. Price fell sharply to 21.11 and is now below S1 support (21.612), putting focus on the next support near S2 (20.604). RSI(6)=34.1 is near oversold but not showing a confirmed reversal signal. MACD histogram is negative (-0.347) and expanding lower, which typically confirms downside momentum is strengthening. Moving averages are still structurally bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the bigger-picture trend had been up, but this drop is a near-term trend break that needs to base before a safer long-term entry. Key levels: Resistance/pivot 23.243 (regaining this would improve setup), then 24.874; supports 20.604 then below that becomes riskier.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is bearish/defensive. Put open interest (4699) exceeds calls (3040) and the open interest put/call ratio is elevated at 1.55. Even more notable, put volume dominated today (put/call volume ratio 22.22) on higher-than-usual activity (today’s volume 209 vs ~167% of 30-day average), suggesting traders are leaning into downside protection/speculation. Volatility is extremely high: 30D IV ~153% vs historical vol ~93%, implying expensive options and market expectation of big moves; that usually aligns with uncertainty and risk rather than a clean long-term entry point today.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Analyst catalyst path into 2026: Wells Fargo upgraded to Overweight citing upside potential from MRT-8102 Phase 1 update in 1H 2026 and potential clarity on Novartis plans for MRT-
Financial trend improvement: 2025/Q3 revenue grew +38.54% YoY and losses narrowed (net income and EPS improved YoY), indicating improving operating trajectory.
Pattern-based forward bias from similar setups suggests a modest positive drift over 1 month (+7.38% probability-weighted expectation provided).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical damage: a sharp -8.53% drop and break below S1 (21.
with a negatively expanding MACD increases odds of follow-through weakness toward ~20.60 support.
Options market is strongly put-skewed (volume put/call 22.22; OI put/call 1.55), consistent with bearish sentiment/hedging pressure.
No news in the past week to act as an immediate upside catalyst; next highlighted catalysts are mostly 2026-dated, which doesn’t fit an impatient entry.
High volatility regime (IV ~153%) increases the chance of large adverse swings around any biotech/program updates.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue increased to 12,768,000 (+38.54% YoY), while profitability is still negative but improving: net income was -27,081,000 (13.50% better YoY) and EPS -0.33 (13.79% better YoY). Gross margin reported at 100 (flat YoY). Overall: growth and loss-narrowing are positives, but the company remains loss-making and the stock trades with biotech-style event/volatility risk.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: the latest notable change is a bullish upgrade. On 2025-12-16, Wells Fargo upgraded GLUE to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $22 price target, citing a 2026 catalyst path (MRT-8102 Phase 1 update in 1H 2026 and potential Novartis-related clarity on MRT-6160). Wall Street pros: clearer catalyst roadmap and potential de-risking data in 2026; improving YoY financial trends. Wall Street cons: near-term catalysts are limited (most are out in 2026), and at today’s price (~21.11) the $22 target implies relatively limited upside (~4%) versus the current elevated volatility and recent technical breakdown. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days; no influential-figure trading noted in the provided data.
Wall Street analysts forecast GLUE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GLUE is 30.4 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GLUE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GLUE is 30.4 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 21.130
Low
20
Averages
30.4
High
37
Current: 21.130
Low
20
Averages
30.4
High
37
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight -> Overweight
upgrade
$22
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$22
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo upgraded Monte Rosa Therapeutics (GLUE) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $22 price target. The firm cites the company's catalyst path in 2026 for the upgrade. Wells sees upside from MRT-8102's Phase 1 update in the first half of 2026 and likely disclosure of Novartis' (NVS) plans for MRT-6160. The MRT-8102 Phase 1 update should be "de-risking," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Wedbush
Robert Driscoll
Buy
Maintains
$15 → $17
2025-03-21
Reason
Wedbush
Robert Driscoll
Price Target
$15 → $17
2025-03-21
Maintains
Buy
Reason
Wedbush raised the firm's price target on Monte Rosa Therapeutics to $17 from $15 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the company reported Q4 financials and provided clinical updates for its VAV1 and MRT-2359 programs in immunology and oncology, respectively. Monte Rosa shared healthy volunteer data for its MRT-6160 VAV1 degrader program showing a favorable safety profile, along with deep VAV1 degradation of over 90% and substantial ablation of T and B cell function shown by reduction in cytokine release from T and B cells following ex vivo stimulation, the firm notes. Taken together, Wedbush sees these data as providing robust support for further evaluation of the molecule in Phase 2 studies in immune mediated diseases, including autoimmune indications such as colitis and rheumatoid arthritis.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for GLUE
