Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is sitting just above key support (~40.19) with bearish momentum (MACD worsening) and no proprietary “strong buy” signals.
Options positioning is bullish-leaning (low put/call), but implied volatility is extremely elevated into earnings (2/11), making the near-term risk/reward unattractive for a “buy now” decision.
If you must act immediately, this reads as a hold / wait rather than an outright buy; a better “buy now” setup would be either (1) a reclaim of ~43.78 (pivot) or (2) a post-earnings reaction that stabilizes above support.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.511 and negatively expanding => bearish momentum still building, not yet showing a reversal.
RSI (6): 38.0 => weak/near-oversold territory, but not confirming a bounce by itself.
Moving averages: converging => consolidation phase, but current momentum favors downside unless support holds.
Key levels: Support S1 ~40.19 (price ~40.95 is close—risk of breakdown), next S2 ~37.98. Resistance/pivot ~43.78; upside improves meaningfully only if price reclaims and holds above this area.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment (positioning): Very low put/call OI (0.16) and sub-1 put/call volume (0.49) => options market skew is bullish / call-leaning.
Activity: Today’s options volume (1852) is ~11.42x the 30-day average => elevated event positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV 65.77 vs historical vol 52.89, with IV percentile 92.43 => options are pricing large moves (expensive premium) into the near-term catalyst window (earnings).
Interpretation: Despite bullish skew, the very high IV suggests the market expects a sizable move; direction is not guaranteed, and “buying now” faces event-risk pricing.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market). A solid print/guide could quickly push the stock back toward the ~43.78 pivot and beyond.
Fund flows: Hedge funds are buying (buying amount up ~467.97% QoQ), supportive for medium-term demand.
Margin/earnings quality: Latest reported quarter shows materially higher net income/EPS and improved gross margin, which can support re-rating if revenue stabilizes.
Structural tailwinds: Ongoing “local supply chain / U.S.-based manufacturing” demand theme noted by analysts; potential multi-quarter catalyst if utilization improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Earnings risk: With IV percentile ~92, the market is braced for a big move; disappointment on guidance/utilization could be punished.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.688B, down -2.93% YoY => top-line still contracting modestly.
Profitability improving: Net income +40.11% YoY to $248M; EPS +37.50% YoY to $0.44.
Margins: Gross margin 24.82%, up +4.24% YoY => mix/cost/utilization improvements are helping even with weaker revenue.
Takeaway: Fundamentals look “quality improving” on margins/earnings, but the growth engine (revenue) hasn’t turned up yet.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved up from late-2025 lows (e.g., UBS to $45 from $37; Evercore to $45 from $43), but ratings remain mixed with many Neutral and at least one persistent Underperform (BofA).
Latest notable action: (2026-02-02) UBS raised PT to $45 but kept Neutral => upside acknowledged, conviction still restrained.
Bull case (Wall St pros): Improved margins/discipline, exposure to localized manufacturing demand, and positioning for AI-related infrastructure over time.
Bear case (Wall St cons): Slower-than-hoped cyclical recovery, weak industrial/auto demand signals, and catalysts possibly pushed out toward 2H26 per commentary.
Wall Street analysts forecast GFS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GFS is 38.88 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GFS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GFS is 38.88 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
5 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 40.970
Low
35
Averages
38.88
High
45
Current: 40.970
Low
35
Averages
38.88
High
45
UBS
Timothy Arcuri
Neutral
maintain
$37 -> $45
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
UBS
Timothy Arcuri
Price Target
$37 -> $45
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised the firm's price target on GlobalFoundries to $45 from $37 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
Wedbush
Outperform -> Neutral
downgrade
$42 -> $40
2025-12-31
Reason
Wedbush
Price Target
$42 -> $40
2025-12-31
downgrade
Outperform -> Neutral
Reason
As previously reported, Wedbush downgraded GlobalFoundries to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $40, down from $42. While the firm believes that GlobalFoundries has a path to a model with stronger revenues, improved utilization, and better margins on improved end market fundamentals and a shift towards local supply chains, it also believes recent developments have elongated the timeframe around when those catalysts might play out, the analyst tells investors. Recent checks in Taiwan suggest that industrial and auto demand remains relatively weak, with no anticipation of any near-term recovery, the analyst added.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for GFS
